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"title": "学生上街、国债破顶、预算卡关！诺奖得主克鲁曼：法国债务若暴雷 将「大到救不起」",
"shortTitle": "学生上街、国债破顶、预算卡关！诺奖得主克鲁曼：法国债务若暴雷",
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"description": "克鲁曼指法国恐陷潜在债务危机，对ECB可能已「大到无力救助」。 法国10年期公债殖利率升至2002年来高点，债息与预算赤字续增压力。 他称若法国续背离财政责任，救助成本高且恐引发欧洲内部撕裂。",
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"content": "<p>诺贝尔经济学奖得主克鲁曼最新表示，法国面临潜在债务危机，该国对欧洲央行(ECB)来说恐已「大到无力救助」。克鲁曼在自己的Substack专栏发文指出，法国财政路径难以为继，政府债务利息负担不断攀升，高额预算赤字进一步加剧本国债务压力。法国10年期公债殖利率近日攀升至2002年来最高水位。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6627003/l/5d9d9191b4ae7cd5adb2be8f0241ae17.jpg\" alt=\"学生上街、国债破顶、预算卡关！诺奖得主克鲁曼：法国债务若暴雷 将「大到救不起」\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<p>文中提出一个关键问题，在人口老化背景下，法国始终未能改革相对偏低的退休年龄，克鲁曼还提到当年的欧债危机，那场危机也促使ECB推出许多干预举措。</p>\n\n<p>克鲁曼写道：「法国使用欧元，这就很容易推演，市场信心丧失会演变为一场惨烈危机。2009-2012 年我们就见过这一幕，先是希腊，而后是葡萄牙、西班牙、义大利。一开始，投资者停止购买某一欧元区国家的债券，市场担忧该国政府会因为没有现金偿付债务本息而被迫违约。违约恐慌进一步引发资本外逃，资本外逃又放大违约担忧、推高利率，恶性循环不断加深。」</p>\n\n<p>他并指出，2012年ECB总裁德拉吉向市场做出著名承诺，将 「不惜一切代价」 避免成员国债务违约。这份承诺之所以被市场广泛接受，很大程度上得益于南欧国家实施「大规模削减开支」。</p>\n\n<p>克鲁曼认为，只要法国继续「进一步背离财政责任」，救助法国对ECB将「成本极其高昂」，同时还会引发巨大的政治争议。</p>\n\n<p>他写道：「法国或已跨过界限，从『大到不能倒』变成了『大到无力救助』。简言之，很容易设想法国爆发严重危机的情景，而这场危机会在欧洲内部造成巨大撕裂。」</p>\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-19577.html\" title=\"柴油飙涨70%！川普放话有重大消息 要狠狠压下涨势\">柴油飙涨70%！川普放话有重大消息 要狠狠压下涨势</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-19567.html\" title=\"中国油电车输欧恐砍逾半！中欧达共识 具体措施待公布\">中国油电车输欧恐砍逾半！中欧达共识 具体措施待公布</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-19600.html\" title=\"诺奖得主克鲁曼警告：法国债务恐「大到无法救」引爆欧债危机\">诺奖得主克鲁曼警告：法国债务恐「大到无法救」引爆欧债危机</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-19547.html\" title=\"美国再制裁17艘伊朗影子船队船舶 瞄准石油收入打击德黑兰财源\">美国再制裁17艘伊朗影子船队船舶 瞄准石油收入打击德黑兰财源</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-19597.html\" title=\"川普宣布俄罗斯增供柴油 泽伦斯基批评等同投资战争\">川普宣布俄罗斯增供柴油 泽伦斯基批评等同投资战争</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-19549.html\" title=\"法国财长称债券市场运作正常 无需「上帝之手」干预\">法国财长称债券市场运作正常 无需「上帝之手」干预</a></li>\n </ul>\n</div>",
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