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AI巨头发债潮推升融资成本 新兴市场主权债面临资金排挤效应

2026-10-13 20:44:34 网络 阅读(1)

人工智慧(AI)基础建设的巨额融资浪潮,不仅美欧日等先进国家的发债受影响,新兴市场政府更是被迫与科技巨头在在资本市场展开激烈的资金争夺战。

AI巨头发债潮推升融资成本 新兴市场主权债面临资金排挤效应

根据美国银行策略师分析,地缘政治疑虑、高油价以及高利率环境,已使新兴市场债券殖利率持续承受压力,而科技巨头庞大的发债规模,更进一步推升了开发中国家的借贷成本。

今年下半年,新兴市场美元债的平均殖利率已飙升近1个百分点,创下去年4月以来新高,使寻求债务再融资的政府面临严峻挑战。

数据显示,光是亚马逊(AMZN-US)与 Alphabet(GOOGL-US) 两大科技巨头,今年下半年发行的债务规模就已达约 700 亿美元。相较之下,新兴市场主权国家同期发行的欧元债券规模大幅缩减一半至 450 亿美元,其中投资等级新兴市场国家的发债量更骤降 56% 至 290 亿美元。

美国银行东欧、中东与非洲主权信用策略师 Merveille Paja 指出:「超大规模业者(Hyperscalers)排挤新兴市场,对我们这类资产类别而言确实是一项风险。」她警告,全球金融条件收紧与殖利率上升,将重创正等待更好再融资时机的借款国。

今年全球与 AI 相关的债务发行量已突破 4,450 亿美元。由于投资等级新兴市场主权债的殖利率与高评级科技巨头相当,投资人开始在两者之间进行替代。

Vanguard全球新兴市场研究主管 Micah James 分析:「利差交易最紧密的高评级主权债发行人已出现压力,投资人能非常轻松地在优质新兴市场主权债与投资等级科技业发行人之间做选择。」

不过,市场对于资金排挤的看法并非完全悲观。安联环球投资(Allianz SE)新兴市场债券首席基金经理人 Eoghan McDonagh 认为,低利率时代结束促使投资人更加挑剔,但未必是二选一。他指出,部分美国机构投资人正利用高品质新兴市场主权债来分散对超大规模业者的曝险。

Carmignac 董事长兼首席投资长 Edouard Carmignac 则强调,经济成长疲弱且债务高企的政府将被迫支付更高的借贷成本。他表示:「当资金再次变贵时,选择变得至关重要。稀缺的资金会流向最具前景的公司,特别是善用扩增智慧者,同时排挤财政失控的政府。」

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      "shortTitle": "欧盟通过单次最大规模制裁名单 一半涉俄罗斯弹道飞弹",
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旅游业忧税负将压抑客流、缩减航班,冲击尚未完全复苏的观光与航空枢纽目标。",
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      "shortTitle": "马斯克谈中国记忆体:追赶很快 量产能力不容小觑",
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      "description": "马斯克称中国一旦掌握制造方法,扩产速度常胜过全球总和,锂电池与光伏已证明。
他并指除SpaceX外,中国已占其余入轨总品质多数,SpaceX送轨总质量约为他方总和10倍。
长鑫存储9月宣布LPDDR6量产并商用,9月20日再推第五代DRAM平台与LPDDR5X,年底拟出DDR5 RDIMM。",
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      "shortTitle": "京东抢跑突袭双11 中国电商大战告别价格战 转向效率与服务争",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6629345/l/841c2eee32e053c3fb294653b0db96cb.jpg",
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各平台砍掉凑单与满减,主打官方直降、官方立减、一件直降,并叠加625亿元以旧换新国补刺激消费。
商务部等七部门整治无序低价竞争,双11重心转向商品品质、履约体验与AI经营。",
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      "description": "日本央行总裁植田和男周二(13日)在众议院预算委员会答询时重申,日本当前基调性物价上涨率已「相当接近2%」的物价稳定目标。 植田指出,随着薪资与物价温和上涨的机制逐渐确立,将物价稳定在2%左右水准,是日银货币政策当前运作的关键。 植田发言期间,美元兑日元盘中下跌0.22%,报158.28。 日银于9月将政策利率上调至1.25%,创下31年来新高。目前金融市场预期12月前追加升息的机率高达约87%,知情人士透露,日银最快可能于29日的金融政策决定会议中,判定基调物价已达标。 针对长期利率波动,植田",
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察哈尔高新区22个算力项目开工,8月再签12个智算项目、规划电力容量6.3GW。
DeepSeek拟建GW级资料中心,至少采购16万颗华为升腾950DT晶片,估值逾400亿元。",
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两市成交额为人民币1.6759兆元。
中信证券说,节后资金流入银行,证监会座谈会释出稳资本市场信号。",
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今年下半年亚马逊与Alphabet发债约700亿美元,新兴市场主权欧元债仅450亿美元,投资等级国家骤降56%。
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