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人工智慧疑虑再起 资金涌入美债、日元与瑞郎避险

2026-10-22 16:34:01 网络 阅读(3)

由于投资人对人工智慧(AI)交易的获利前景疑虑再起,导致股市出现震荡,避险资金随之涌入美国公债、日元及瑞士法郎等避险资产。

人工智慧疑虑再起 资金涌入美债、日元与瑞郎避险

美国政府公债殖利率全线下跌至少 3 个基点,其中 30 年期美债殖利率降至 5.38%,创下 9 月 23 日以来最低。同时,澳洲与纽西兰公债价格也同步走扬,日元兑美元汇率升幅高达 0.3%。

星展银行(DBS Bank Ltd.)资深利率策略师 Eugene Leow 表示:「随着投资人重新审视与 AI 相关的资产,近期的市场情绪似乎更加动摇。」他指出,市场对获利能力与投资报酬率(ROI)的疑虑正在逐渐浮现。在美债殖利率以近期标准衡量仍处于高位的情况下,投资人希望透过转向美债寻求安全感,以规避部分风险。

股票市场的跌势,让美债重新发挥了避险资产的作用;在此之前,对通膨升温的担担曾推动美债殖利率在最近几周升至多年新高。

尽管沙乌地阿拉伯发生的致命袭击事件引发市场对供应前景的疑虑,进而推升原油价格,但资金对美债的避险买盘依然强劲。能源成本上升加深了市场对通膨的担忧,并促使交易员预期美国联准会(Fed)及全球其他主要中央银行将进一步升息。

彭博追踪美债报酬率的指标在 9 月创下近两年来最大单月跌幅后,10 月已回升约 1.2%。

澳洲国家银行(National Australia Bank)利率策略主管 Kenneth Crompton 对此指出:「尽管油价一直在缓步上扬,但美债再次吸引了避险资金的流入。」

除美债外,全球其他主要债市与汇市也受到影响。澳洲 10 年期公债殖利率下跌 3 个基点至 5.25%,纽西兰 2 年期公债殖利率下滑 2 个基点至 3.91%。在汇市方面,日元兑美元升值 0.3% 至 157.68 日元兑 1 美元,瑞士法郎上涨 0.2%,而美元指数指标则变化不大。

法国Credit Agricole策略师 David Forrester 分析:「标普 500 指数期货的回档为日元带来了推升力道。」他强调:「重要之处在于,这种升势是全面性的,甚至对美元同样上扬,这凸显出在 AI 热潮遭遇波折时,日元所具备的避险资产地位。」

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      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6635521/l/a569d15ebf865553bbd3b927db8ed6cc.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-10-22T04:30:04.000Z",
      "description": "费半指数6交易日跌约10%,SMH自10月5日高点回落14%,通膨高于预期加剧跌势。
记忆体股跌最重:SK海力士5日跌26%、三星22%、美光11%;市场担忧供给过剩。
作者指晶片股仍有获利支撑,SMH与SOXX估值已降,接下来财报将决定是否只是重新定价。",
      "pv": 3,
      "pinyin": "hour",
      "name": "实时",
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    {
      "id": 21443,
      "title": "两份声明、两份报告、三个共识 为亚太财金合作指明方向",
      "shortTitle": "两份声明、两份报告、三个共识 为亚太财金合作指明方向",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6635499/l/218b7176ba6b481655363c847c09008d.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-10-22T04:29:59.000Z",
      "description": "APEC财长会议10月20至21日在香港举行。
香港特区首次承办,为11月APEC领袖非正式会议累积财金成果。
会议发布《2026年APEC财长联合声明》及《亚太地区数位基础设施融资政策声明》。",
      "pv": 3,
      "pinyin": "hour",
      "name": "实时",
      "path": "/hour"
    },
    {
      "id": 21444,
      "title": "胡塞武装攻势升高!沙国机场遭袭酿1死8伤 美国下令外交人员撤离",
      "shortTitle": "胡塞武装攻势升高!沙国机场遭袭酿1死8伤 美国下令外交人员撤",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6635650/l/a476ccad2ea86da993f4baa6df9ca44a.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-10-22T03:40:06.000Z",
      "description": "胡塞武装攻击升高,沙国达曼法赫德国王际机场遇袭1死8伤;沙伊巴油田外无人机遭拦截后碎片致2死2伤。
美国国务院命令非紧急美国政府人员及家属离开沙国,称胡塞对民用机场与关键基础设施攻势可能升级。
沙国机场、油田接连遇袭,凸显民航与能源安全风险;沙伊巴油田生产未受影响,但市场忧供应波动。",
      "pv": 3,
      "pinyin": "hour",
      "name": "实时",
      "path": "/hour"
    },
    {
      "id": 21453,
      "title": "先进封装进度分歧 台积电CoPoS拚2028年量产、三星玻璃基板卡关",
      "shortTitle": "先进封装进度分歧 台积电CoPoS拚2028年量产、三星玻璃",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6635609/l/414879375dc0046ba41bcb82c16f43a2.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-10-22T05:30:10.000Z",
      "description": "英特尔2026年1月宣布玻璃核心载板量产,Xeon 6+首度采用;台积电CoPoS规划2027年试产、2028年下半年量产。
三星电机GlaSSEM因样品未过客户可靠性认证,量产时程三度延后至2028年后。
华天科技、华润微、京东方A等中国业者推进面板级封装与玻璃载板,部分已生产或小量出货。",
      "pv": 3,
      "pinyin": "hour",
      "name": "实时",
      "path": "/hour"
    },
    {
      "id": 21454,
      "title": "战火跨境蔓延!俄军无人机已在欧盟境内夺命 考验北约底线",
      "shortTitle": "战火跨境蔓延!俄军无人机已在欧盟境内夺命 考验北约底线",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6635687/l/7d49a6f4744dff8aa7a1e339ce1ff473.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-10-22T04:38:27.000Z",
      "description": "黑海自10月初起7艘商船遭俄无人机袭击,保加利亚、罗马尼亚官方称已酿20多名船员死亡,局势升级考验北约吓阻力。
10月13日至15日接连有船在保加利亚、罗马尼亚外海遇袭;多国对是否回应俄方态度分歧。
业界称保险与招募成本上升、出口延误,船东与船员避开黑海;经纪人直言黑海航运实质上已停摆。",
      "pv": 3,
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      "name": "实时",
      "path": "/hour"
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    {
      "id": 21460,
      "title": "诺基亚转型AI奏效 Q3获利优于预期、明年光通讯业务拚增3成",
      "shortTitle": "诺基亚转型AI奏效 Q3获利优于预期、明年光通讯业务拚增3成",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6635754/l/4e8b9f6c42f25918f43c0eabc6fd2a44.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-10-22T06:10:47.000Z",
      "description": "AI基建投资激增带动资料中心需求,诺基亚第三季调整后营益6.05亿欧元、净销售52亿欧元,均优于预期。
执行长Hotard推动转型,扩大AI与资料中心布局;诺基亚收购Infinera,可望带入2亿欧元综效。
诺基亚重组费用上调至11亿欧元,行动基础建设部门销售年增5%至29亿欧元。",
      "pv": 3,
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      "name": "实时",
      "path": "/hour"
    },
    {
      "id": 21461,
      "title": "全球AI热潮退烧与振兴乏力 中国股市正逐步走入熊市",
      "shortTitle": "全球AI热潮退烧与振兴乏力 中国股市正逐步走入熊市",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6635743/l/86f80dc56fe0dfa190087ab555950282.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-10-22T06:10:02.000Z",
      "description": "沪深300周四一度跌1.9%,自6月高点累跌20%,中国股市逐步走入熊市。
AI概念股回档、消费疲弱与缺乏大规模刺激政策,拖累科创50近半年跌约40%、创业板近半年亦重挫。
宁德时代补贴退场致获利不如预期,股价续挫;分析师称若无新政策或科技催化,低迷恐延续至2027年初。",
      "pv": 3,
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      "name": "实时",
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    {
      "id": 21470,
      "title": "SpaceX宏大AI目标挑战现实极限 马斯克看好明年新增10GW算力",
      "shortTitle": "SpaceX宏大AI目标挑战现实极限 马斯克看好明年新增10",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6635449/l/4820d7de16fb3aef71b56f592c63b852.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-10-22T07:30:05.000Z",
      "description": "SpaceX AI算力9月不到2GW,目标今年底2.5至3GW;马斯克称2027年增10GW,明年底新增不到13GW会意外。
分析师估值分歧:摩根大通看500美元、2028年EPS逾24美元;摩根士丹利仅估明年底8.3GW,忧电力、执行与融资风险。
为扩充AI,SpaceX恐需大举举债与砸资本支出。",
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      "title": "有别于亚马逊!沃尔玛推出AI购物新工具:允许ChatGPT与Gemini等代理人直接下单",
      "shortTitle": "有别于亚马逊!沃尔玛推出AI购物新工具:允许ChatGPT与",
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      "createdAt": "2026-10-22T06:50:03.000Z",
      "description": "沃尔玛推出Agent Gateway与新功能,让AI代理人可搜寻并完成购物,抢攻AI商务市场。
下月上线Walmart Agent Profiles,可为代理人设支出上限、逐笔审核,并分开查看交易纪录。
沃尔玛可串接ChatGPT、Gemini、Muse,且不需Walmart+。",
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      "id": 21462,
      "title": "《外交事务》:官僚枷锁扼杀创新 欧洲经济为何被「自己人」拖累?",
      "shortTitle": "《外交事务》:官僚枷锁扼杀创新 欧洲经济为何被「自己人」拖累",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6635703/l/087593c9d9298d4ca0543e91a960e4db.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-10-22T05:50:05.000Z",
      "description": "McAfee称欧洲经济落后主因是官僚干预、劳工法规与科技监管过严,扼杀新创生态。
数据显示:欧盟劳动生产力由美国95%跌至落后20%,前100大公司市值占比也由36%降至不到10%。
欧洲在AI、云端、晶片与汽车转型落后;McAfee批2026年6月欧盟AI法案擡高成本、加速人才与资金外流。",
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