天天财经-提供金融入门知识-投资理财技巧-涨价还没完？美国10月服务业成本还没全转嫁 Fed抗通膨难松手

美国10月服务业扩张速度降至三个月来最慢，但企业投入成本仍居高不下，关税与中东战争造成的供应链压力也尚未消退。最新数据显示，美国经济进入第四季仍具韧性，却同时面临需求降温与通膨难退的考验，使联准会(Fed)对抗物价压力的任务更加棘手。

涨价还没完？美国10月服务业成本还没全转嫁 Fed抗通膨难松手

美国10月服务业扩张速度降至三个月来最慢，但企业投入成本仍居高不下。(图：ZeroHedge)

美国供应管理协会(ISM)周三(4日)公布，10月非制造业指数由9月的54.9降至54.5，低于《路透》调查预估的54.8。指数高于50代表扩张，显示占美国经济活动逾三分之二的服务业仍持续成长。

美国10月ISM非制造业指数细项：(50为荣枯线)

商业活动生产指数报53.8，前值56.5
新订单指数报55.9，前值59.8
雇佣指数报51.4，前值50.1
供应商交货指数报56.7，前值52.8
存货指数报55.4，前值57.8
价格指数报73.0，前值74.0
未完成订单指数报58.0，前值56.6
新出口订单指数报55.2，前值46.9
进口指数报54.2，前值52.9
库存景气指数报52.1，前值51.7

服务业扩张放缓新订单降温但聘雇改善

ISM非制造业调查中的新订单指数由59.8降至55.9，创四个月新低，但仍处于扩张区间；未完成订单指数则升至2022年以来最高，显示企业仍有大量订单待消化。10月共有15个服务业产业回报成长，包括运输仓储、资讯与娱乐业，营建及医疗保健业则呈现萎缩。

企业在需求与成本之间审慎调整人力，就业指数仍由50.1升至51.4，创2月以来最高，反映聘雇活动有所改善。

另一份标普全球调查也显示成长降温。10月美国服务业采购经理人指数(PMI)由9月的58.8降至56.1，低于初值57.9；综合PMI则由58.4降至55.9，同样创三个月新低。

标普全球市场财智首席商业经济学家Chris Williamson表示，美国经济第四季开局仍强，科技业持续引领成长，面向消费者的产业及金融服务也有稳健表现。不过，新订单增幅放缓，服务业企业信心明显下降，反映对负担能力、利率及政治环境的不安。

成本压力尚未完全转嫁 Fed抗通膨仍有考验

ISM非制造业投入价格指数虽由74降至73，仍是2022年中以来第二高。供应商交货指数则由53.2升至56.7，创4月以来最高；该指数高于50代表交货放慢，目前已连续23个月处于此区间。

ISM服务业调查委员会主席Steve Miller指出，关税与燃料成本仍是受访企业最常提及的供应链问题，许多业者尚未感受到成本上升的全部影响，或尚未将其转嫁给客户。若油价与关税压力无法缓解，后续仍可能出现更多涨价压力。

标普全球调查也发现，服务业售价以过去四年来最快的速度之一上涨，加上制造业商品售价跳升，Williamson警告，未来几个月通膨可能进一步偏离Fed目标。

高物价也正侵蚀家庭购买力。美国9月扣除通膨与税负后的可支配所得下滑，储蓄率降至四年低点3.8%，使经济学家预期，消费支出在连续两季强劲成长后可能放缓。

Fed上周维持政策利率区间于3.75%至4%，并重申通膨仍偏高。《路透》报导指出，经济学家预期通膨高于2%目标的情况将延续至2027年，并预估Fed可能在12月升息。

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投入价格指数仍达73，关税与燃料成本压力未退，Fed抗通膨仍棘手", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6646819/l/098d1c764ca0bd917a6d625838451ef7.jpg", "content": "<p>美国10月服务业扩张速度降至三个月来最慢，但企业投入成本仍居高不下，关税与中东战争造成的供应链压力也尚未消退。最新数据显示，美国经济进入第四季仍具韧性，却同时面临需求降温与通膨难退的考验，使联准会(Fed)对抗物价压力的任务更加棘手。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6646819/l/098d1c764ca0bd917a6d625838451ef7.jpg\" alt=\"涨价还没完？美国10月服务业成本还没全转嫁 Fed抗通膨难松手\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<figure><img alt=\"(图：ZeroHedge)\" data-height=\"459\" data-mime=\"image/png\" data-ratio=\"1.6557734204793029\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6646819/m/2bd6ed0f6051f1a7a1478315284a03f0.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6646819/l/2bd6ed0f6051f1a7a1478315284a03f0.jpg\" srcset=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6646819/l/2bd6ed0f6051f1a7a1478315284a03f0.jpg 1x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6646819/xl/2bd6ed0f6051f1a7a1478315284a03f0.jpg 2x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6646819/xl/2bd6ed0f6051f1a7a1478315284a03f0.jpg 3x\">\n<figcaption>美国10月服务业扩张速度降至三个月来最慢，但企业投入成本仍居高不下。(图：ZeroHedge)</figcaption>\n</figure>\n\n<p>美国供应管理协会(ISM)周三(4日)公布，10月非制造业指数由9月的54.9降至54.5，低于《路透》调查预估的54.8。指数高于50代表扩张，显示占美国经济活动逾三分之二的服务业仍持续成长。</p>\n\n<h6>美国10月ISM非制造业指数细项：(50为荣枯线)</h6>\n\n<ul>\n<li>商业活动生产指数报53.8，前值56.5</li>\n<li>新订单指数报55.9，前值59.8 </li>\n<li>雇佣指数报51.4，前值50.1</li>\n<li>供应商交货指数报56.7，前值52.8</li>\n<li>存货指数报55.4，前值57.8</li>\n<li>价格指数报73.0，前值74.0</li>\n<li>未完成订单指数报58.0，前值56.6</li>\n<li>新出口订单指数报55.2，前值46.9</li>\n<li>进口指数报54.2，前值52.9</li>\n<li>库存景气指数报52.1，前值51.7</li>\n</ul>\n\n<figure><img alt=\"图：ISM\" data-height=\"633\" data-mime=\"image/jpeg\" data-ratio=\"1.2006319115323856\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6646819/m/6adb3da0b949e487cc8613ca99548413.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6646819/l/6adb3da0b949e487cc8613ca99548413.jpg\" srcset=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6646819/l/6adb3da0b949e487cc8613ca99548413.jpg 1x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6646819/xl/6adb3da0b949e487cc8613ca99548413.jpg 2x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6646819/xl/6adb3da0b949e487cc8613ca99548413.jpg 3x\">\n<figcaption>图：ISM</figcaption>\n</figure>\n\n<h6>服务业扩张放缓新订单降温但聘雇改善</h6>\n\n<p>ISM非制造业调查中的新订单指数由59.8降至55.9，创四个月新低，但仍处于扩张区间；未完成订单指数则升至2022年以来最高，显示企业仍有大量订单待消化。10月共有15个服务业产业回报成长，包括运输仓储、资讯与娱乐业，营建及医疗保健业则呈现萎缩。</p>\n\n<p>企业在需求与成本之间审慎调整人力，就业指数仍由50.1升至51.4，创2月以来最高，反映聘雇活动有所改善。</p>\n\n<p>另一份标普全球调查也显示成长降温。10月美国服务业采购经理人指数(PMI)由9月的58.8降至56.1，低于初值57.9；综合PMI则由58.4降至55.9，同样创三个月新低。</p>\n\n<figure><img alt=\"(图：ZeroHedge)\" data-height=\"441\" data-mime=\"image/png\" data-ratio=\"1.7233560090702948\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6646819/m/e77f81db659439d29c9ad730d6d52af8.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6646819/l/e77f81db659439d29c9ad730d6d52af8.jpg\" srcset=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6646819/l/e77f81db659439d29c9ad730d6d52af8.jpg 1x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6646819/xl/e77f81db659439d29c9ad730d6d52af8.jpg 2x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6646819/xl/e77f81db659439d29c9ad730d6d52af8.jpg 3x\">\n<figcaption>10月美国服务业采购经理人指数(PMI)由9月的58.8降至56.1，低于初值57.9。(图：ZeroHedge)</figcaption>\n</figure>\n\n<p>标普全球市场财智首席商业经济学家Chris Williamson表示，美国经济第四季开局仍强，科技业持续引领成长，面向消费者的产业及金融服务也有稳健表现。不过，新订单增幅放缓，服务业企业信心明显下降，反映对负担能力、利率及政治环境的不安。</p>\n\n<h6>成本压力尚未完全转嫁 Fed抗通膨仍有考验</h6>\n\n<p>ISM非制造业投入价格指数虽由74降至73，仍是2022年中以来第二高。供应商交货指数则由53.2升至56.7，创4月以来最高；该指数高于50代表交货放慢，目前已连续23个月处于此区间。</p>\n\n<figure><img alt=\"(图：ZeroHedge)\" data-height=\"454\" data-mime=\"image/png\" data-ratio=\"1.6740088105726871\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6646819/m/449aae956057f2a83df0375c56b83c02.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6646819/l/449aae956057f2a83df0375c56b83c02.jpg\" srcset=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6646819/l/449aae956057f2a83df0375c56b83c02.jpg 1x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6646819/xl/449aae956057f2a83df0375c56b83c02.jpg 2x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6646819/xl/449aae956057f2a83df0375c56b83c02.jpg 3x\">\n<figcaption>ISM非制造业投入价格指数虽由74降至73，仍是2022年中以来第二高。(图：ZeroHedge)</figcaption>\n</figure>\n\n<p>ISM服务业调查委员会主席Steve Miller指出，关税与燃料成本仍是受访企业最常提及的供应链问题，许多业者尚未感受到成本上升的全部影响，或尚未将其转嫁给客户。若油价与关税压力无法缓解，后续仍可能出现更多涨价压力。</p>\n\n<p>标普全球调查也发现，服务业售价以过去四年来最快的速度之一上涨，加上制造业商品售价跳升，Williamson警告，未来几个月通膨可能进一步偏离Fed目标。</p>\n\n<p>高物价也正侵蚀家庭购买力。美国9月扣除通膨与税负后的可支配所得下滑，储蓄率降至四年低点3.8%，使经济学家预期，消费支出在连续两季强劲成长后可能放缓。</p>\n\n<p>Fed上周维持政策利率区间于3.75%至4%，并重申通膨仍偏高。《路透》报导指出，经济学家预期通膨高于2%目标的情况将延续至2027年，并预估Fed可能在12月升息。</p>\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-23361.html\" 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美国10月ISM非制造业指数细项：(50为荣枯线)

服务业扩张放缓 新订单降温但聘雇改善

成本压力尚未完全转嫁 Fed抗通膨仍有考验

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