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中国大型银行市值争夺战 工商银行龙头地位面临挑战

2026-11-10 14:36:08 网络 阅读(1)

长期雄踞中国A股市值首位的中国工商银行(601398-CN)(简称工行),近年在资本市场与经营指标上面临中国建设银行(简称建行)(601939-CN)与中国农业银行(601288-CN)(简称农行)的强烈挑战。尽管工行总资产规模仍维持第一,但经营增速与单位资产获利效率的差距,使三大国有银行的市值排名出现频繁更替。

中国大型银行市值争夺战 工商银行龙头地位面临挑战

工商银行A股龙头宝座遭遇挑战

据交易数据显示,2025年9月农行总市值一度超越工行登顶。2026年农行股价回档修正,建行则于5月超越工行。虽然2026年第三季科技股回档期间工行曾短暂重回第一,但财报公布后建行再次反超。

截至2026年11月5日,建行年内上涨约28%,总市值达人民币3.05兆元;工行上涨约10%,总市值为2.98兆元;农行总市值为2.54兆元。股价净值比(PB)方面,工行为0.75倍,低于农行的0.89倍与建行的0.83倍。

三大行基本面比对

基本面表现上,工行规模优势逐渐收窄。截至2026年第三季末,工行总资产达人民币57.82兆元;农行达52.12兆元(相当于工行90%);建行则为48.73兆元(相当于工行84%)。前三季工行营收为人民币6,959.47亿元,税后纯益达2,856.4亿元,建行纯益已达工行的96%。

资产品质与备抵呆帐上,第三季末工行与建行逾放比率(不良贷款率)均为1.29%,农行为1.23%。备抵呆帐覆盖率方面,工行仅211.64%,低于建行233.21%与农行289.13%,风险缓冲相对较薄。

净利息收益率承压

媒体分析,工行纯益成长趋缓主要源于结构性因素:

  • 资产端收益率偏低:2026年上半年工行生息资产收益率为2.49%,低于建行2.54%。工行企业贷款占比达62.44%,多投放于央企与基建等低收益项目;高收益个人信贷占比降至27.73%。
  • 负债端资金成本较高:工行计息负债成本率1.32%,高于建行1.28%。主因工行活期存款占比约38%,低于建行40%,资金集中管理使低成本活期存款沉淀受限。

目前,中长期三大行市值「轮流坐庄」或成常态。工行握有体量优势,农行具资产扩张速度优势,建行则拥有较高单位资产获利能力。

其中,资产规模仍是工行短期的防御堡垒。工行刻正优化资产负债结构,资产端向先进制造与科创信贷倾斜,并拓展托管与跨境投行等非息业务,以稳固龙头地位。

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