〈纽约汇市〉美元因升息预期降低走弱但油价上涨限制跌幅

美元周一(17日)下跌，早盘一度跌至两个多月来的最低点，市场降低了对联准会(Fed)近期升息的预期。同时，油价延续上周涨势，使市场对通膨的担忧持续存在。

纽约尾盘，追踪美元兑六种主要货币的美元指数(DXY)下跌0.1%，报99.58。美元指数稍早一度跌至99.29，为6月2日以来最低。

外汇市场投资人刚经历关键的一周。经济数据显示，7月消费者物价与生产者物价的年增率均有所放缓，无论是整体数据还是核心数据都是如此。

再加上先前公布、意外疲弱的7月非农就业报告，以及周五公布的疲弱零售销售数据，这些资料整体来看显示，联准会暂时有更多空间，不必立即收紧政策。

市场对利率的预期也随之调整。根据CME的FedWatch工具，市场目前预期联准会在9月维持利率不变的机率约为63%，而升息25个基点的机率则接近37%。

本周稍晚，联准会将公布7月联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议纪要，届时市场可能会得到更多有关联准会政策思维的线索。

在7月的FOMC会议中，有三位地区联准银行总裁对维持利率不变的决定表示异议。货币政策观察人士将密切关注会议纪要中是否还会出现更多偏鹰派言论。

Macquarie全球外汇与利率策略师 Thierry Wizman表示，「会议纪要可能会揭示鹰派阵营真正担忧的原因，尤其是究竟是什么因素促使三位持不同意见的成员在7月投票支持立即升息25个基点。」

「如果其中一项理由是，在多年通膨高于目标之后，需要重新建立联准会的公信力，那么这会是一个偏鹰派的讯号，因为这意味着FOMC内部的鹰派情绪可能会持续存在。」

「更重要的是，会议纪要可能会说明，到底需要出现什么样的具体条件或门槛，才会迫使多数决策者投票支持紧缩货币政策，即使华许(Kevin Warsh)本人不太愿意明确提出联准会的『政策反应函数』(reaction function)。」

布兰特原油突破每桶90美元

美元周一从盘中低点回升，其中一个原因是油价上涨带动避险需求增加。布兰特原油(Brent)期货价格突破每桶90美元。

油价上涨之际，美国与伊朗在荷姆兹海峡(Strait of Hormuz)的僵局仍持续。

双方都各自宣称掌握这条重要水道的控制权，德黑兰要求华盛顿先满足一些条件，例如停止各战线的敌对行动，以及解冻伊朗遭到冻结的资产，之后才会重新开放这条重要航道。

与此同时，伊朗正与阿曼合作制定荷姆兹海峡的管理架构。

《福斯新闻》周一引述美国总统川普的话表示，「如果阿曼从中阻挠，我们就会把他们炸得一塌糊涂。」

周一同时是美伊双方在6月中旬签署的合作备忘录(MoU)到期日。这份协议在7月因双方针对荷姆兹海峡商业船只遭袭事件互相发动攻击后，实际上已经瓦解。川普告诉记者，他不会延长这项协议。

日元走弱印度卢比承压

日元周一小幅走弱。美元兑日元上涨0.1%，至159.49。

在美国与日本于7月底进行历史性的联合干预之后，日元兑美元所取得涨幅，目前已经回吐了大约一半。

日元走弱的另一个原因，是日本国内经济成长数据低于预期。

官方数据显示，日本经济在第二季以年化率1.1%的速度成长，低于市场预期的2%，也低于前一季经修正后的1.9%。

以单季来看，日本GDP成长0.3%，低于市场预期的0.5%。其中，私人消费疲弱及资本支出萎缩，拖累了整体经济表现。

另一方面，美元兑印度卢比上涨0.4%，原因是受到持续的中东能源风险影响，印度进口商争相买进美元。

即使如此，印度卢比仍面临贬值压力。印度央行(RBI)已采取积极且多管齐下的措施来支撑卢比。

截至台湾时间周二 (18 日) 约 5:40 价格:

美元指数报 99.5811。+0.0009%
欧元兑美元 (EUR/USD)汇率报1欧元兑1.1576美元。-0.0529%
英镑兑美元 (GBP/USD)汇率报1英镑兑1.3540美元。-0.0148%
澳币兑美元 (AUD/USD)汇率报1澳币兑0.7103美元。-0.0141%
美元兑加币 (USD/CAD)汇率报1美元兑1.3872加币。-0.0144%
美元兑日元 (USD/JPY)汇率报1美元兑159.3600日元。-0.0627%

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"美元周一(17日)下跌，早盘一度跌至两个多月来的最低点，市场降低了对联准会(Fed)近期升息的预期。同时，油价延续上周涨势，使市场对通膨的担忧持续存在。", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6579521/l/77083567fe818308d8719885a60f0f49.jpg", "content": "美元周一(17日)下跌，早盘一度跌至两个多月来的最低点，市场降低了对联准会(Fed)近期升息的预期。同时，油价延续上周涨势，使市场对通膨的担忧持续存在。\n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6579521/l/77083567fe818308d8719885a60f0f49.jpg\" alt=\"〈纽约汇市〉美元因升息预期降低走弱但油价上涨限制跌幅\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n纽约尾盘，追踪美元兑六种主要货币的美元指数(DXY)下跌0.1%，报99.58。美元指数稍早一度跌至99.29，为6月2日以来最低。\n\n外汇市场投资人刚经历关键的一周。经济数据显示，7月消费者物价与生产者物价的年增率均有所放缓，无论是整体数据还是核心数据都是如此。\n\n再加上先前公布、意外疲弱的7月非农就业报告，以及周五公布的疲弱零售销售数据，这些资料整体来看显示，联准会暂时有更多空间，不必立即收紧政策。\n\n市场对利率的预期也随之调整。根据CME的FedWatch工具，市场目前预期联准会在9月维持利率不变的机率约为63%，而升息25个基点的机率则接近37%。\n\n本周稍晚，联准会将公布7月联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议纪要，届时市场可能会得到更多有关联准会政策思维的线索。\n\n在7月的FOMC会议中，有三位地区联准银行总裁对维持利率不变的决定表示异议。货币政策观察人士将密切关注会议纪要中是否还会出现更多偏鹰派言论。\n\nMacquarie全球外汇与利率策略师 Thierry Wizman表示，「会议纪要可能会揭示鹰派阵营真正担忧的原因，尤其是究竟是什么因素促使三位持不同意见的成员在7月投票支持立即升息25个基点。」\n\n「如果其中一项理由是，在多年通膨高于目标之后，需要重新建立联准会的公信力，那么这会是一个偏鹰派的讯号，因为这意味着FOMC内部的鹰派情绪可能会持续存在。」\n\n「更重要的是，会议纪要可能会说明，到底需要出现什么样的具体条件或门槛，才会迫使多数决策者投票支持紧缩货币政策，即使华许(Kevin Warsh)本人不太愿意明确提出联准会的『政策反应函数』(reaction function)。」\n\n布兰特原油突破每桶90美元\n\n美元周一从盘中低点回升，其中一个原因是油价上涨带动避险需求增加。布兰特原油(Brent)期货价格突破每桶90美元。\n\n油价上涨之际，美国与伊朗在荷姆兹海峡(Strait of Hormuz)的僵局仍持续。\n\n双方都各自宣称掌握这条重要水道的控制权，德黑兰要求华盛顿先满足一些条件，例如停止各战线的敌对行动，以及解冻伊朗遭到冻结的资产，之后才会重新开放这条重要航道。\n\n与此同时，伊朗正与阿曼合作制定荷姆兹海峡的管理架构。\n\n《福斯新闻》周一引述美国总统川普的话表示，「如果阿曼从中阻挠，我们就会把他们炸得一塌糊涂。」\n\n周一同时是美伊双方在6月中旬签署的合作备忘录(MoU)到期日。这份协议在7月因双方针对荷姆兹海峡商业船只遭袭事件互相发动攻击后，实际上已经瓦解。川普告诉记者，他不会延长这项协议。\n\n日元走弱印度卢比承压\n\n日元周一小幅走弱。美元兑日元上涨0.1%，至159.49。\n\n在美国与日本于7月底进行历史性的联合干预之后，日元兑美元所取得涨幅，目前已经回吐了大约一半。\n\n日元走弱的另一个原因，是日本国内经济成长数据低于预期。\n\n官方数据显示，日本经济在第二季以年化率1.1%的速度成长，低于市场预期的2%，也低于前一季经修正后的1.9%。\n\n以单季来看，日本GDP成长0.3%，低于市场预期的0.5%。其中，私人消费疲弱及资本支出萎缩，拖累了整体经济表现。\n\n另一方面，美元兑印度卢比上涨0.4%，原因是受到持续的中东能源风险影响，印度进口商争相买进美元。\n\n即使如此，印度卢比仍面临贬值压力。印度央行(RBI)已采取积极且多管齐下的措施来支撑卢比。\n\n截至台湾时间周二 (18 日) 约 5:40 价格:\n\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/index/GI/DXY\">美元指数</a>报 99.5811。+0.0009%</li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/eurusd\">欧元</a>兑美元 (EUR/USD)汇率报1<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/eurusd\">欧元</a>兑1.1576美元。-0.0529%</li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/gbpusd\">英镑</a>兑美元 (GBP/USD)汇率报1<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/gbpusd\">英镑</a>兑1.3540美元。-0.0148%</li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/audusd\">澳币</a>兑美元 (AUD/USD)汇率报1<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/audusd\">澳币</a>兑0.7103美元。-0.0141%</li>\n<li>美元兑<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/cadusd\">加币</a> (USD/CAD)汇率报1美元兑1.3872<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/cadusd\">加币</a>。-0.0144%</li>\n<li>美元兑<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/jpyusd\">日元</a> (USD/JPY)汇率报1美元兑159.3600<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/jpyusd\">日元</a>。-0.0627%</li>\n</ul><div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-7512.html\" title=\"美债殖利率节节攀升美股估值「警铃大响」\">美债殖利率节节攀升美股估值「警铃大响」</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-11551.html\" title=\"「木头姐」Q2大砍辉达、AMD、台积电！砸4.43亿美元押SpaceX\">「木头姐」Q2大砍辉达、AMD、台积电！砸4.43亿美元押SpaceX</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-17543.html\" title=\"Meta 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