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资料中心盖太快踩煞车?克雷默 :下一波赢家将换这4大云端巨头

2026-08-25 10:35:33 网络 阅读(1)

美国AI资料中心投资热潮正遭遇愈来愈强烈的政治与社区反弹。CNBC知名财经节目主持人克雷默(Jim Cramer)周一(24日)表示,资料中心并非已经失去投资价值,但这个「可能是一个世代最重要的投资主题」正面临前所未有的挑战,过去不受限制的大规模扩建模式可能已告一段落,下一波受惠者也可能从基础设施、记忆体与储存设备供应商,转向拥有庞大资金与资源的超大规模云端业者。

资料中心盖太快踩煞车?克雷默 :下一波赢家将换这4大云端巨头

克雷默表示,资料中心投资主题「正遭到攻击,而且可能再也不会和以前一样」。随着AI资料中心快速扩张,地方居民与政治人物对电费上涨、用水量、电网负荷、噪音、环境影响及社区生活品质的疑虑持续升高,愈来愈多州政府开始要求开发商自行负担基础设施成本,并提高地方审查与环境标准。

宾州州长夏皮洛本月18日签署行政命令,要求新资料中心开发案必须符合严格的「负责任基础设施开发标准」(GRID Requirements),并取得地方社区核准,否则州政府不会推进相关许可审查。新规定要求开发商自行负担新发电、输电、配电及其他供电基础设施成本,不得将支出转嫁给家庭与企业,同时必须提高社区参与透明度、雇用与培训当地劳工、签订社区利益协议,并遵守严格的节水与环境保护标准。所有AI资料中心开发案也立即被排除在宾州快速许可计划之外,政府并禁止开发商与相关机构签署保密协议。

夏皮洛政府进一步要求资料中心营运商提交能源与用水数据,包括年度总能源与天然气消耗量、尖峰时段平均每小时用电量、年度总用水量与单日最高用水需求。宾州也计划建立机制,确保在电网承受压力时,资料中心可能优先于一般用户被削减供电,并要求资料中心自行承担为满足其需求而建置新发电容量的相关成本。

德州同样出现政策转向。州长艾伯特6月要求德州公用事业委员会(PUC)与德州电力可靠度委员会(ERCOT)采取措施,避免资料中心扩张成本转嫁给住宅用户与小型企业。艾伯特要求资料中心全额负担所需电力基础设施成本,并推动未来立法要求业者采用节水冷却系统、定期申报电力与用水数据、淘汰过时的税务优惠,以及采取退缩距离与降噪等措施保护周边社区。

8月11日,资料中心业者EdgeConneX与Stream Data Centers已承诺遵守德州政府提出的相关标准,显示监管要求开始直接改变业者的开发条件。艾伯特当时强调,资料中心必须保护电网、节约用水、尊重社区,而且「必须自己负担成本」,不能把支出转嫁给德州家庭。

克雷默认为,规则终究可以设计,社区也可以透过补偿与投资获得安抚,但过去几乎不受限制的资料中心扩建模式很可能结束。问题在于,一旦开发速度变得更难预测,投资人可能不愿再给予资料中心供应链高估值,即使底层AI需求依然强劲。

他点名,燃气涡轮机制造商奇异维诺瓦(GEV-US),以及美光(MU-US)、Sandisk(SNDK-US)、威腾电子(WDC-US)与希捷科技(STX-US)等记忆体与储存企业,都可能受到市场重新评估资料中心建设速度的影响。周一AI相关科技股已出现明显卖压,Sandisk与希捷科技收跌约6.5%,美光下跌5.8%,威腾电子下跌5.2%,反映投资人对AI基础设施支出与资料中心建设前景更加敏感。

近期市场对记忆体与储存股的疑虑也不只来自资料中心监管。今年7月,美光单日一度重挫8.9%,全月跌幅超过29%,创下2015年6月以来最差单月表现;Sandisk当月一度下跌近51%,市场同时担忧中国记忆体产能与本土半导体技术快速发展,可能加剧未来供应竞争。这些因素使原本高度依赖AI与资料中心资本支出的族群,面临估值、竞争与建设速度等多重变数。

不过,克雷默认为,政治反弹反而可能让大型云端科技公司成为最大赢家。他点名亚马逊(AMZN-US)、Alphabet(GOOGL-US)、微软(MSFT-US)与Meta(META-US),认为这些超大规模云端业者拥有足够的财务资源,可以支付更高的电力与基础设施成本、满足更严格的环保规范,并向地方社区提供补偿与长期投资。

克雷默表示,这些企业是最大的受惠者,因为它们有能力补偿地方社区,同时继续兴建装满伺服器的资料中心。相较之下,规模较小、依赖外部融资或以土地开发为主的投机型资料中心业者,可能难以承担更长的许可流程、更高的前期成本与更严格的社区要求。

这种变化还可能产生另一项对超大规模云端业者有利的效果。如果投机型开发商数量减少,市场对土地、建筑劳工与电力容量的竞争也可能下降,进而降低大型科技公司持续建置AI基础设施的成本。克雷默认为,过去市场在计算资料中心支出时,往往把庞大的资本支出视为大型科技公司的负担,导致超大规模云端业者股价承压;但政治与社区反弹若提高产业进入门槛,反而可能形成保护既有大型业者的竞争壁垒。

资料中心议题也正快速成为美国政治的重要争点。美联社近期报导指出,随着2026年期中选举接近,民主、共和两党政治人物都面临选民对资料中心扩张的压力。宾州、德州之外,亚利桑那州、纽约州与伊利诺州也陆续采取措施,限制或重新检讨大型资料中心的税务优惠与开发条件。美国民众的主要疑虑包括大量耗电、用水、噪音、对乡村景观的破坏,以及资料中心建成后可创造的长期工作机会有限。

因此,克雷默并不认为投资人应放弃资料中心交易,而是应重新思考谁能在新环境中继续扩张。他认为,当地方政府要求开发商自行支付更多成本、提高环境标准并取得社区支持后,AI基础设施的建设门槛将提高,而资本最雄厚、拥有既有云端客户与技术生态系的企业,反而可能取得更大优势。

克雷默总结,超大规模云端业者将是这场转变中的赢家,而且可能持续胜出。过去市场因担心资料中心建设成本而惩罚这些大型科技公司,但如今政治反弹可能抑制投机型竞争者、降低土地与电力资源争夺,对亚马逊、Alphabet、微软与Meta而言,反而可能成为一份意外的「大礼」。

换言之,资料中心投资主题并未消失,而是可能进入更成熟、门槛更高的新阶段。AI对算力、储存与电力的长期需求仍在,但「谁都能盖资料中心」的时代可能逐渐结束,市场下一阶段的核心,将从单纯押注资料中心数量成长,转向寻找最有能力跨越监管、社区与基础设施障碍的真正受惠者。

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          "id": 47,
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      "id": 37,
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    "content": "<p>美国AI资料中心投资热潮正遭遇愈来愈强烈的政治与社区反弹。CNBC知名财经节目主持人克雷默(Jim Cramer)周一(24日)表示,资料中心并非已经失去投资价值,但这个「可能是一个世代最重要的投资主题」正面临前所未有的挑战,过去不受限制的大规模扩建模式可能已告一段落,下一波受惠者也可能从基础设施、记忆体与储存设备供应商,转向拥有庞大资金与资源的超大规模云端业者。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6585752/l/08814b59cc8c3d09f1a6e10b3a0b5980.jpg\" alt=\"资料中心盖太快踩煞车?克雷默 :下一波赢家将换这4大云端巨头\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<p>克雷默表示,资料中心投资主题「正遭到攻击,而且可能再也不会和以前一样」。随着AI资料中心快速扩张,地方居民与政治人物对电费上涨、用水量、电网负荷、噪音、环境影响及社区生活品质的疑虑持续升高,愈来愈多州政府开始要求开发商自行负担基础设施成本,并提高地方审查与环境标准。</p>\n\n<p>宾州州长夏皮洛本月18日签署行政命令,要求新资料中心开发案必须符合严格的「负责任基础设施开发标准」(GRID Requirements),并取得地方社区核准,否则州政府不会推进相关许可审查。新规定要求开发商自行负担新发电、输电、配电及其他供电基础设施成本,不得将支出转嫁给家庭与企业,同时必须提高社区参与透明度、雇用与培训当地劳工、签订社区利益协议,并遵守严格的节水与环境保护标准。所有AI资料中心开发案也立即被排除在宾州快速许可计划之外,政府并禁止开发商与相关机构签署保密协议。</p>\n\n<p>夏皮洛政府进一步要求资料中心营运商提交能源与用水数据,包括年度总能源与天然气消耗量、尖峰时段平均每小时用电量、年度总用水量与单日最高用水需求。宾州也计划建立机制,确保在电网承受压力时,资料中心可能优先于一般用户被削减供电,并要求资料中心自行承担为满足其需求而建置新发电容量的相关成本。</p>\n\n<p>德州同样出现政策转向。州长艾伯特6月要求德州公用事业委员会(PUC)与德州电力可靠度委员会(ERCOT)采取措施,避免资料中心扩张成本转嫁给住宅用户与小型企业。艾伯特要求资料中心全额负担所需电力基础设施成本,并推动未来立法要求业者采用节水冷却系统、定期申报电力与用水数据、淘汰过时的税务优惠,以及采取退缩距离与降噪等措施保护周边社区。</p>\n\n<p>8月11日,资料中心业者EdgeConneX与Stream Data Centers已承诺遵守德州政府提出的相关标准,显示监管要求开始直接改变业者的开发条件。艾伯特当时强调,资料中心必须保护电网、节约用水、尊重社区,而且「必须自己负担成本」,不能把支出转嫁给德州家庭。</p>\n\n<p>克雷默认为,规则终究可以设计,社区也可以透过补偿与投资获得安抚,但过去几乎不受限制的资料中心扩建模式很可能结束。问题在于,一旦开发速度变得更难预测,投资人可能不愿再给予资料中心供应链高估值,即使底层AI需求依然强劲。</p>\n\n<p>他点名,燃气涡轮机制造商奇异维诺瓦(GEV-US),以及美光(MU-US)、Sandisk(SNDK-US)、威腾电子(WDC-US)与希捷科技(STX-US)等记忆体与储存企业,都可能受到市场重新评估资料中心建设速度的影响。周一AI相关科技股已出现明显卖压,Sandisk与希捷科技收跌约6.5%,美光下跌5.8%,威腾电子下跌5.2%,反映投资人对AI基础设施支出与资料中心建设前景更加敏感。</p>\n\n<p>近期市场对记忆体与储存股的疑虑也不只来自资料中心监管。今年7月,美光单日一度重挫8.9%,全月跌幅超过29%,创下2015年6月以来最差单月表现;Sandisk当月一度下跌近51%,市场同时担忧中国记忆体产能与本土半导体技术快速发展,可能加剧未来供应竞争。这些因素使原本高度依赖AI与资料中心资本支出的族群,面临估值、竞争与建设速度等多重变数。</p>\n\n<p>不过,克雷默认为,政治反弹反而可能让大型云端科技公司成为最大赢家。他点名亚马逊(AMZN-US)、Alphabet(GOOGL-US)、微软(MSFT-US)与Meta(META-US),认为这些超大规模云端业者拥有足够的财务资源,可以支付更高的电力与基础设施成本、满足更严格的环保规范,并向地方社区提供补偿与长期投资。</p>\n\n<p>克雷默表示,这些企业是最大的受惠者,因为它们有能力补偿地方社区,同时继续兴建装满伺服器的资料中心。相较之下,规模较小、依赖外部融资或以土地开发为主的投机型资料中心业者,可能难以承担更长的许可流程、更高的前期成本与更严格的社区要求。</p>\n\n<p>这种变化还可能产生另一项对超大规模云端业者有利的效果。如果投机型开发商数量减少,市场对土地、建筑劳工与电力容量的竞争也可能下降,进而降低大型科技公司持续建置AI基础设施的成本。克雷默认为,过去市场在计算资料中心支出时,往往把庞大的资本支出视为大型科技公司的负担,导致超大规模云端业者股价承压;但政治与社区反弹若提高产业进入门槛,反而可能形成保护既有大型业者的竞争壁垒。</p>\n\n<p>资料中心议题也正快速成为美国政治的重要争点。美联社近期报导指出,随着2026年期中选举接近,民主、共和两党政治人物都面临选民对资料中心扩张的压力。宾州、德州之外,亚利桑那州、纽约州与伊利诺州也陆续采取措施,限制或重新检讨大型资料中心的税务优惠与开发条件。美国民众的主要疑虑包括大量耗电、用水、噪音、对乡村景观的破坏,以及资料中心建成后可创造的长期工作机会有限。</p>\n\n<p>因此,克雷默并不认为投资人应放弃资料中心交易,而是应重新思考谁能在新环境中继续扩张。他认为,当地方政府要求开发商自行支付更多成本、提高环境标准并取得社区支持后,AI基础设施的建设门槛将提高,而资本最雄厚、拥有既有云端客户与技术生态系的企业,反而可能取得更大优势。</p>\n\n<p>克雷默总结,超大规模云端业者将是这场转变中的赢家,而且可能持续胜出。过去市场因担心资料中心建设成本而惩罚这些大型科技公司,但如今政治反弹可能抑制投机型竞争者、降低土地与电力资源争夺,对亚马逊、Alphabet、微软与Meta而言,反而可能成为一份意外的「大礼」。</p>\n\n<p>换言之,资料中心投资主题并未消失,而是可能进入更成熟、门槛更高的新阶段。AI对算力、储存与电力的长期需求仍在,但「谁都能盖资料中心」的时代可能逐渐结束,市场下一阶段的核心,将从单纯押注资料中心数量成长,转向寻找最有能力跨越监管、社区与基础设施障碍的真正受惠者。</p>\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n  <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n  <ul>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-4896.html\" title=\"川普:华许面对「有点敌意」的Fed理事会 会让他「做该做的事」\">川普:华许面对「有点敌意」的Fed理事会 会让他「做该做的事」</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-3305.html\" title=\"Fed转鹰抗通膨?美银惊人预测:今年升息3次 2028年前不降息\">Fed转鹰抗通膨?美银惊人预测:今年升息3次 2028年前不降息</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-1710.html\" title=\"黄仁勋:尽可能给员工最高薪资 AI威胁就业论「完全是无稽之谈」\">黄仁勋:尽可能给员工最高薪资 AI威胁就业论「完全是无稽之谈」</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-3302.html\" title=\"Fed不再报明牌!华许拆解前瞻指引架构 债市重新成为升息风向球\">Fed不再报明牌!华许拆解前瞻指引架构 债市重新成为升息风向球</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-1591.html\" title=\"General Mills调整中国策略哈根达斯门市业务改采授权模式\">General Mills调整中国策略哈根达斯门市业务改采授权模式</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-6439.html\" title=\"祖克柏真的杀疯了!一座AI资料中心竟上看2500亿美元 他在豪赌什么?\">祖克柏真的杀疯了!一座AI资料中心竟上看2500亿美元 他在豪赌什么?</a></li>\n  </ul>\n</div>",
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