「Cybercab风暴」成毛毛雨！仅45辆车马斯克也未出席浇熄市场热情特斯拉挫近6%

特斯拉(TSLA-US)周五(4日) 收低近6%, 市场对公司最新Cybercab自动驾驶计程车的正式上路反应冷淡。《华尔街日报》商业专栏作家Tim Higgins形容, 执行长马斯克(Elon Musk)此前预告的「Cybercab风暴」最终更像一场「毛毛雨」, 尽管他也认为, 特斯拉让没有驾驶员的Cybercab正式在美国德州奥斯汀街头载客, 本身仍是一项重大进展。

马斯克在活动前曾预告将迎来一场「Cybercab风暴」, 市场也因此对9月3日的发布活动抱有高度期待。CNBC报导, 约200万人在X平台等待预期中的直播, 但特斯拉最终没有安排公开直播, 而是在奥斯汀举行封闭式活动, 仅邀请部分客户、Tesla支持者及科技网红参加。马斯克本人也没有现身活动。

活动最大的实质进展, 是特斯拉正式把专为自动驾驶打造的Cybercab纳入Robotaxi网络, 并在奥斯汀部分地区提供无人驾驶载客服务。乘客可以透过特斯拉Robotaxi服务预约, 公司并表示将采取动态定价, 主打以较低价格提供「一流体验」。

Cybercab是一款双座纯电动车, 最大特色是没有方向盘、煞车及加速踏板, 也没有传统后视镜, 车辆完全依靠特斯拉的自动驾驶系统行驶。车内设有两张座椅及一个22吋中央触控萤幕, 采用鸥翼式车门, 并以高度简化的座舱设计突出其无人驾驶定位。

然而, 车队规模仍然非常有限。德州官方资料显示, 目前共有45辆Cybercab登记在特斯拉的Robotaxi车队中, 而特斯拉在德州的整体自动驾驶车队约有420辆, 其中大多数仍是搭载Full Self-Driving软体的Model Y。这意味着Cybercab目前只是整个Robotaxi车队中的一小部分。

这也成为投资人最关注的问题。Higgins指出, 特斯拉现在真正需要证明的, 已经不只是Cybercab能不能自己驾驶, 而是自动驾驶系统能否达到足够高的可靠程度, 让公司可以把目前数十辆的车队快速扩大到马斯克此前承诺的庞大规模。

Higgins认为, 如果特斯拉的技术最终证明可行, 公司庞大的制造能力可能成为主要优势。看多特斯拉的投资人押注, 马斯克最终可以快速生产数百万辆Cybercab, 让自动驾驶计程车形成大规模商业网络。但看空者则认为, 从目前的小规模测试走向真正的大规模商业化, 可能是一场「持续许多年的苦战」。他认为, 现阶段最大的问题就是Cybercab究竟可以扩张到多大规模, 以及扩张速度能有多快。

Cybercab的另一项关键赌注, 是特斯拉坚持的纯视觉自动驾驶路线。不同于Alphabet旗下Waymo及Amazon旗下Zoox等竞争对手, 特斯拉没有把LiDAR光达作为核心感测器, 而是主要依靠摄影机及人工智慧辨识道路环境。Cybercab搭载8枚高画质摄影机, 透过端到端神经网络处理驾驶决策, 不依赖LiDAR或高精度地图。

Higgins表示, 马斯克的基本逻辑是, 人类驾驶汽车并不需要雷射感测器, 因此汽车最终也应该能够单纯依靠视觉理解道路并完成驾驶。他表示, 自己接触的专家普遍认为, 以摄影机为核心的自动驾驶技术最终可能成功, 但这条路线「到目前为止显然带来了挑战」。

至于未来LiDAR成本持续下降, 是否可能促使特斯拉改变技术路线, Higgins认为这种情况「非常令人意外」, 因为特斯拉目前已经在摄影机及纯视觉系统上投入大量资源, 整套自动驾驶技术架构也已经围绕这条路线建立。

与此同时, 特斯拉也面临监管风险。美国国家公路交通安全管理局(NHTSA)在Cybercab开始提供载客服务后, 已对约1,000辆Cybercab展开稽核, 主要检视这种没有方向盘及传统人工控制装置的车辆是否符合联邦安全规范。特斯拉此前是透过自我认证程序确认车辆符合规定, NHTSA目前正在检视相关技术资料及认证程序。

这项监管问题格外重要, 因为Cybercab的设计直接挑战传统汽车安全法规。NHTSA长期规范主要是针对由人类驾驶的汽车制定, 而Cybercab没有方向盘、踏板及部分传统控制设备。相较之下, Zoox等竞争对手则曾寻求监管豁免, 让没有传统人工控制设备的自动驾驶车辆合法上路。

Cybercab并非特斯拉突然推出的新概念。马斯克早在2024年10月的「We, Robot」活动中首次公开这款车的概念版本, 当时承诺售价将低于3万美元。首辆量产车于2026年2月在德州工厂下线, 4月开始正式量产, 距离概念车首次亮相约18个月。

不过, 从概念车到真正大规模商业服务之间仍存在巨大差距。特斯拉自2025年6月开始在奥斯汀测试Robotaxi服务, 此后逐步扩大至德州及佛罗里达州其他城市, 并计划进一步拓展至亚利桑那州及内华达州。但实际扩张速度仍低于马斯克过去提出的目标。

目前特斯拉的自动驾驶规模也仍落后Waymo。最新资料显示, 特斯拉在多个美国城市运营超过200辆无人监督Robotaxi, 而Waymo已在14个城市部署超过4,000辆自动驾驶车。Cybercab的正式商业化因此被视为特斯拉能否缩小与Waymo差距的重要测试。

特斯拉则强调自身拥有庞大的实际道路资料优势。截至2026年9月, 公司全球车队累计辅助驾驶里程已超过225亿公里, 每天新增的驾驶资料量相当于一名驾驶者连续驾车500年所产生的资料。特斯拉希望利用这些资料训练AI模型, 进一步改善自动驾驶能力。

Cybercab的能源效率也是其商业模式的重要一环。特斯拉资料显示, Cybercab预计每100公里消耗约10.2千瓦时, 相当于每千瓦时行驶约9.8公里。由于车辆从设计之初就是为Robotaxi服务打造, 公司希望透过较低能源消耗、无驾驶员成本及高使用率, 将每英里营运成本压低至传统叫车服务及竞争对手之下。

市场对Cybercab何时真正成为消费者可以购买的量产车仍相当怀疑。预测市场Polymarket目前认为, 特斯拉在2026年12月31日前以3万美元或更低价格, 向至少一名一般零售客户出售Cybercab的机率只有14%, 相关市场交易量已超过5.2万美元。

这项预测也凸显Cybercab目前面临的核心矛盾: 特斯拉已经让无方向盘、无踏板的车辆真正载客上路, 但距离马斯克所描绘的数百万辆自动驾驶车队仍有非常遥远的距离。

对投资人而言, Cybercab的问题因此已经不再只是「能不能自己开」, 而是特斯拉能否证明这套纯视觉自动驾驶技术足够安全、可靠且具备经济效益, 同时突破监管限制, 将目前奥斯汀的45辆Cybercab扩大成真正具有商业规模的车队。这也将决定马斯克的Robotaxi愿景究竟会成为特斯拉下一个巨大成长引擎, 还是再次陷入长期延宕的承诺。

标题选项:

特斯拉Cybercab「风暴」变毛毛雨！股价ㄏ，45辆车成扩张关键
马斯克喊「Cybercab风暴」却雷声小！专家质疑大规模量产还要等多久
Cybercab正式无人载客！特斯拉下一关不是自驾，而是能否快速扩张
特斯拉Cybercab上路却遇冷！挑战数百万辆Robotaxi梦想
无方向盘、无踏板正式上街！特斯拉Cybercab迎来真正商业化考验
特斯拉自驾豪赌进入关键期！Cybercab上路，纯视觉路线成最大考验
马斯克的Robotaxi梦想能成真吗？Cybercab上路后市场盯上「扩张速度」
Cybercab正式载客但市场不买单！特斯拉如何从45辆扩到数百万辆
特斯拉「自驾风暴」成毛毛雨！Cybercab登场声势不如预期
从45辆到数百万辆有多远？Cybercab上路后，特斯拉面临最大难题
Cybercab无人驾驶正式启动！特斯拉迎来自驾商业化最重要一战
特斯拉Robotaxi大考开始！Cybercab摆脱方向盘，却甩不掉监管与规模化难题

引言:

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"「Cybercab风暴」成毛毛雨！仅45辆车马斯克也未出席", "tagId": "", "attr": "", "articleView": null, "source": null, "author": "网络", "description": "特斯拉Cybercab正式在奥斯汀提供无人驾驶载客服务, 但发布声势不如预期, 德州目前仅45辆登记上路。市场如今更关注纯视觉自驾能否通过监管并快速扩张, 支撑马斯克的Robotaxi愿景。", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6598280/l/a067ce04b54e64ba9cff0999e5a58824.jpg", "content": "特斯拉(TSLA-US)周五(4日) 收低近6%, 市场对公司最新Cybercab自动驾驶计程车的正式上路反应冷淡。《华尔街日报》商业专栏作家Tim Higgins形容, 执行长马斯克(Elon Musk)此前预告的「Cybercab风暴」最终更像一场「毛毛雨」, 尽管他也认为, 特斯拉让没有驾驶员的Cybercab正式在美国德州奥斯汀街头载客, 本身仍是一项重大进展。\n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6598280/l/a067ce04b54e64ba9cff0999e5a58824.jpg\" alt=\"「Cybercab风暴」成毛毛雨！仅45辆车马斯克也未出席浇熄市场热情特斯拉挫近6%\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n马斯克在活动前曾预告将迎来一场「Cybercab风暴」, 市场也因此对9月3日的发布活动抱有高度期待。CNBC报导, 约200万人在X平台等待预期中的直播, 但特斯拉最终没有安排公开直播, 而是在奥斯汀举行封闭式活动, 仅邀请部分客户、Tesla支持者及科技网红参加。马斯克本人也没有现身活动。\n\n活动最大的实质进展, 是特斯拉正式把专为自动驾驶打造的Cybercab纳入Robotaxi网络, 并在奥斯汀部分地区提供无人驾驶载客服务。乘客可以透过特斯拉Robotaxi服务预约, 公司并表示将采取动态定价, 主打以较低价格提供「一流体验」。\n\nCybercab是一款双座纯电动车, 最大特色是没有方向盘、煞车及加速踏板, 也没有传统后视镜, 车辆完全依靠特斯拉的自动驾驶系统行驶。车内设有两张座椅及一个22吋中央触控萤幕, 采用鸥翼式车门, 并以高度简化的座舱设计突出其无人驾驶定位。\n\n然而, 车队规模仍然非常有限。德州官方资料显示, 目前共有45辆Cybercab登记在特斯拉的Robotaxi车队中, 而特斯拉在德州的整体自动驾驶车队约有420辆, 其中大多数仍是搭载Full Self-Driving软体的Model Y。这意味着Cybercab目前只是整个Robotaxi车队中的一小部分。\n\n这也成为投资人最关注的问题。Higgins指出, 特斯拉现在真正需要证明的, 已经不只是Cybercab能不能自己驾驶, 而是自动驾驶系统能否达到足够高的可靠程度, 让公司可以把目前数十辆的车队快速扩大到马斯克此前承诺的庞大规模。\n\nHiggins认为, 如果特斯拉的技术最终证明可行, 公司庞大的制造能力可能成为主要优势。看多特斯拉的投资人押注, 马斯克最终可以快速生产数百万辆Cybercab, 让自动驾驶计程车形成大规模商业网络。但看空者则认为, 从目前的小规模测试走向真正的大规模商业化, 可能是一场「持续许多年的苦战」。他认为, 现阶段最大的问题就是Cybercab究竟可以扩张到多大规模, 以及扩张速度能有多快。\n\nCybercab的另一项关键赌注, 是特斯拉坚持的纯视觉自动驾驶路线。不同于Alphabet旗下Waymo及Amazon旗下Zoox等竞争对手, 特斯拉没有把LiDAR光达作为核心感测器, 而是主要依靠摄影机及人工智慧辨识道路环境。Cybercab搭载8枚高画质摄影机, 透过端到端神经网络处理驾驶决策, 不依赖LiDAR或高精度地图。\n\nHiggins表示, 马斯克的基本逻辑是, 人类驾驶汽车并不需要雷射感测器, 因此汽车最终也应该能够单纯依靠视觉理解道路并完成驾驶。他表示, 自己接触的专家普遍认为, 以摄影机为核心的自动驾驶技术最终可能成功, 但这条路线「到目前为止显然带来了挑战」。\n\n至于未来LiDAR成本持续下降, 是否可能促使特斯拉改变技术路线, Higgins认为这种情况「非常令人意外」, 因为特斯拉目前已经在摄影机及纯视觉系统上投入大量资源, 整套自动驾驶技术架构也已经围绕这条路线建立。\n\n与此同时, 特斯拉也面临监管风险。美国国家公路交通安全管理局(NHTSA)在Cybercab开始提供载客服务后, 已对约1,000辆Cybercab展开稽核, 主要检视这种没有方向盘及传统人工控制装置的车辆是否符合联邦安全规范。特斯拉此前是透过自我认证程序确认车辆符合规定, NHTSA目前正在检视相关技术资料及认证程序。\n\n这项监管问题格外重要, 因为Cybercab的设计直接挑战传统汽车安全法规。NHTSA长期规范主要是针对由人类驾驶的汽车制定, 而Cybercab没有方向盘、踏板及部分传统控制设备。相较之下, Zoox等竞争对手则曾寻求监管豁免, 让没有传统人工控制设备的自动驾驶车辆合法上路。\n\nCybercab并非特斯拉突然推出的新概念。马斯克早在2024年10月的「We, Robot」活动中首次公开这款车的概念版本, 当时承诺售价将低于3万美元。首辆量产车于2026年2月在德州工厂下线, 4月开始正式量产, 距离概念车首次亮相约18个月。\n\n不过, 从概念车到真正大规模商业服务之间仍存在巨大差距。特斯拉自2025年6月开始在奥斯汀测试Robotaxi服务, 此后逐步扩大至德州及佛罗里达州其他城市, 并计划进一步拓展至亚利桑那州及内华达州。但实际扩张速度仍低于马斯克过去提出的目标。\n\n目前特斯拉的自动驾驶规模也仍落后Waymo。最新资料显示, 特斯拉在多个美国城市运营超过200辆无人监督Robotaxi, 而Waymo已在14个城市部署超过4,000辆自动驾驶车。Cybercab的正式商业化因此被视为特斯拉能否缩小与Waymo差距的重要测试。\n\n特斯拉则强调自身拥有庞大的实际道路资料优势。截至2026年9月, 公司全球车队累计辅助驾驶里程已超过225亿公里, 每天新增的驾驶资料量相当于一名驾驶者连续驾车500年所产生的资料。特斯拉希望利用这些资料训练AI模型, 进一步改善自动驾驶能力。\n\nCybercab的能源效率也是其商业模式的重要一环。特斯拉资料显示, Cybercab预计每100公里消耗约10.2千瓦时, 相当于每千瓦时行驶约9.8公里。由于车辆从设计之初就是为Robotaxi服务打造, 公司希望透过较低能源消耗、无驾驶员成本及高使用率, 将每英里营运成本压低至传统叫车服务及竞争对手之下。\n\n市场对Cybercab何时真正成为消费者可以购买的量产车仍相当怀疑。预测市场Polymarket目前认为, 特斯拉在2026年12月31日前以3万美元或更低价格, 向至少一名一般零售客户出售Cybercab的机率只有14%, 相关市场交易量已超过5.2万美元。\n\n这项预测也凸显Cybercab目前面临的核心矛盾: 特斯拉已经让无方向盘、无踏板的车辆真正载客上路, 但距离马斯克所描绘的数百万辆自动驾驶车队仍有非常遥远的距离。\n\n对投资人而言, Cybercab的问题因此已经不再只是「能不能自己开」, 而是特斯拉能否证明这套纯视觉自动驾驶技术足够安全、可靠且具备经济效益, 同时突破监管限制, 将目前奥斯汀的45辆Cybercab扩大成真正具有商业规模的车队。这也将决定马斯克的Robotaxi愿景究竟会成为特斯拉下一个巨大成长引擎, 还是再次陷入长期延宕的承诺。\n\n标题选项:\n\n<ol>\n<li>\n特斯拉Cybercab「风暴」变毛毛雨！股价ㄏ，45辆车成扩张关键\n</li>\n<li>\n马斯克喊「Cybercab风暴」却雷声小！专家质疑大规模量产还要等多久\n</li>\n<li>\nCybercab正式无人载客！特斯拉下一关不是自驾，而是能否快速扩张\n</li>\n<li>\n特斯拉Cybercab上路却遇冷！挑战数百万辆Robotaxi梦想\n</li>\n<li>\n无方向盘、无踏板正式上街！特斯拉Cybercab迎来真正商业化考验\n</li>\n<li>\n特斯拉自驾豪赌进入关键期！Cybercab上路，纯视觉路线成最大考验\n</li>\n<li>\n马斯克的Robotaxi梦想能成真吗？Cybercab上路后市场盯上「扩张速度」\n</li>\n<li>\nCybercab正式载客但市场不买单！特斯拉如何从45辆扩到数百万辆\n</li>\n<li>\n特斯拉「自驾风暴」成毛毛雨！Cybercab登场声势不如预期\n</li>\n<li>\n从45辆到数百万辆有多远？Cybercab上路后，特斯拉面临最大难题\n</li>\n<li>\nCybercab无人驾驶正式启动！特斯拉迎来自驾商业化最重要一战\n</li>\n<li>\n特斯拉Robotaxi大考开始！Cybercab摆脱方向盘，却甩不掉监管与规模化难题\n</li>\n</ol>\n\n引言:\n\n \n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-1756.html\" title=\"AI时代谁最赚？三星超车辉达夺全球获利王！SK海力士冲前三、台积电排名曝\">AI时代谁最赚？三星超车辉达夺全球获利王！SK海力士冲前三、台积电排名曝</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-15830.html\" title=\"《财富》OpenAI遭控违反加州AI安全法！GPT-6 Astra风险分级缺失、最高恐罚100万美元\">《财富》OpenAI遭控违反加州AI安全法！GPT-6 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