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"title": "AI闯大祸谁买单？Anthropic拚2兆美元估值 投资人难算这笔帐",
"shortTitle": "AI闯大祸谁买单？Anthropic拚2兆美元估值 投资人难",
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"description": "Anthropic筹备IPO，估值上看2兆美元，但AI失控、甚至威胁人类生存的风险难以反映在股价上。 研究人员讨论AI导致人类灭绝机率恐逾10%；执行长阿莫戴警告，AI可能被用于网攻、生物恐攻与严重经济冲击。 分析师称投资人恐不会因无法量化风险下修Anthropic IPO估值。",
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"content": "<p>Anthropic筹备大型首次公开发行(IPO)，估值可能高达2兆美元，但潜在投资人面临一道难题：如果AI失控造成重大损害，甚至威胁人类生存，这种难以量化的风险该如何反映在股价上？</p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6625918/l/8dc9716ebc509665a9c9fb5f6cff50ef.jpg\" alt=\"AI闯大祸谁买单？Anthropic拚2兆美元估值 投资人难算这笔帐\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<p>据《彭博》报导，部分研究人员在社群平台X讨论AI导致人类灭绝的机率可能达10%以上，引发争论。Anthropic共同创办人暨执行长阿莫戴(Dario Amodei)也撰文警告，若开发脚步未放缓，人类可能失去对AI的控制，技术也可能被用于网路攻击、生物恐怖主义，或造成严重经济冲击。</p>\n\n<h6>潜在赔偿难估算 投资人未必反映在估值</h6>\n\n<p>创投机构Slow Ventures合伙人雷辛(Sam Lessin)主张，美国政府应要求AI实验室提存1兆美元现金，支应未来可能造成的损害，类似金融危机后要求银行增加资本缓冲。</p>\n\n<p>他认为，即使不计人类灭绝情境，AI对社会造成的潜在负担也可能达2兆至4兆美元，甚至让公司的整体价值低于零。但部分投资人仍可能买进，因为预期最终会由其他人埋单。Anthropic对此不予置评。</p>\n\n<p>这类疑虑尚未明显浇熄市场热情。SpaceX(SPCX-US)旗下Grok同样参与AI竞争，其上市文件揭露错误资讯与AI欺骗等风险，却未提及生存威胁。该公司6月IPO募得862亿美元，目前股价仍较发行价高出逾20%；Anthropic则计划募集相当或更高金额。</p>\n\n<p>Private Shares Fund投资组合经理人莫斯(Kevin Moss)认为，AI确实需要监管架构，但安全辩论不太可能打乱Anthropic上市计划。川普政府虽表达关切，也同时重视松绑监管与对中竞争。</p>\n\n<h6>安全投入可能成优势 保险仍难承担所有损失</h6>\n\n<p>川普近期与包括阿莫戴在内的科技领袖达成具有「道德约束力」的AI安全协议，缓和部分投资人焦虑。不过，降低风险的责任目前主要仍由企业承担。</p>\n\n<p>PitchBook分析师罗尔夫斯(Harrison Rolfes)指出，安全机制会增加成本，但也可能提升客户信任；若中国或开源竞争者无法达到相同标准，反而可形成竞争优势。</p>\n\n<p>保险则未必能完全保护股东。英国石油(BP-US)2010年深水地平线事故造成11人死亡，其自保安排额度仅7亿美元，最终事故成本却高达数百亿美元。</p>\n\n<p>Relm Insurance执行长齐奥尔科夫斯基(Joe Ziolkowski)表示，AI缺乏历史理赔数据，责任归属也不明确，使企业取得保障面临挑战。随AI从提供资讯走向自主决策、与其他代理互动，损失由谁负责愈加迫切。</p>\n\n<p>他认为，投资人不太可能为无法量化的风险调降IPO估值。因此，在这些风险能被客观估算之前，反而是企业筹资的有利时机。</p>\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-14001.html\" title=\"怕借钱愈来愈贵！美企抢发债 9月规模上看2500亿美元\">怕借钱愈来愈贵！美企抢发债 9月规模上看2500亿美元</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-15086.html\" title=\"AI代理人能自己刷卡了！蚂蚁国际联手Visa、Mastercard打造新交易标准\">AI代理人能自己刷卡了！蚂蚁国际联手Visa、Mastercard打造新交易标准</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-4922.html\" title=\"小摩示警：AI硬体股飙涨、超大规模云端设备股承压 走势分化雷同1999年网路泡沫前夕\">小摩示警：AI硬体股飙涨、超大规模云端设备股承压 走势分化雷同1999年网路泡沫前夕</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-11056.html\" title=\"美超微狂飙19% AI基础建设股全面上涨\">美超微狂飙19% AI基础建设股全面上涨</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-2115.html\" title=\"TrendForce：记忆体缺货 辉达Vera CPU搭载容量砍半\">TrendForce：记忆体缺货 辉达Vera CPU搭载容量砍半</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-12463.html\" title=\"AI概念股还能涨？Evercore点名「6大」硬体股：2026年下半年将进一步走高\">AI概念股还能涨？Evercore点名「6大」硬体股：2026年下半年将进一步走高</a></li>\n </ul>\n</div>",
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