〈纽约汇市〉美元触及18个月高点后回落投资人预期Fed仍将保持耐心

美元周三(14日)触及至18个月高点，美国通膨数据强于预期，一度重新点燃市场对联准会(Fed)可能在本月稍晚升息的预期。不过，随着投资人重新预期联准会将保持耐心，美元随后自高点回落。

纽约尾盘，追踪美元兑六种主要货币的美元指数(DXY)上涨0.34%，报102.53，稍早在上午尾盘一度升至102.94。

美国劳工部劳工统计局公布的数据显示，由于汽油价格大幅上涨，美国9月消费者物价明显攀升。

State Street资深全球市场策略师Marvin Loh表示，「CPI数据仍在影响市场估值，而股市下跌又提供了另一个推升美元的理由。」

这份通膨报告盖过了联准会官员近期释出的鸽派讯号，包括纽约联准银行总裁威廉斯(John Williams)的言论。他的评论曾在前一个交易日导致美元走弱。

联准会负责监管事务的副主席鲍曼(Michelle Bowman)周四也释出讯号，表示在再次升息之前，将采取观望态度。

另一方面，联准会周三公布的「褐皮书」显示，美国劳动市场仍处于「低聘雇、低解雇」状态，但部分地区的通膨压力有所升高。

Mesirow Currency Management资深投资策略师Uto Shinohara表示，「联准会的双重使命与劳动市场疲弱的迹象之间，仍存在拉锯。明天公布的零售销售、初领失业救济金人数及生产者物价指数(PPI)，应能让我们更清楚掌握消费者状况、劳动市场与物价压力。」

芝商所(CME Group)的FedWatch工具显示，交易员目前预期联准会在10月27日至28日的会议上维持利率不变的机率为65%，高于一个月前的53%。市场预期截至2027年底，累计紧缩幅度约为79个基点。

美国央行上个月将政策利率调升0.25个百分点，使利率区间升至3.75%至4.00%。

Angeles Investments投资长Michael Rosen表示，投资人对美国是否愿意采取行动抑制通膨，正逐渐失去信心。

Rosen表示，「我们看到……美元走强受到较高利率的支撑。除非联准会大幅升息、促使经济陷入衰退，或是我们修正贸易与移民政策，否则通膨不会下降。」

欧元面临压力

多国财政与金融主管目前齐聚曼谷，出席国际货币基金(IMF)与世界银行(World Bank)的年度会议。

IMF财政事务主管Rodrigo Valdes表示，IMF已提高对各国政府控制不断攀升债务的呼吁力度。IMF总裁Kristalina Georgieva则表示，美国需要进行财政调整，让债务走上更可持续的道路。

法国公债是近期全球债券抛售潮中受冲击最严重市场之一。投资人担心，明年总统大选前的政治角力，可能阻碍法国降低高额财政赤字的努力。

欧洲央行(ECB)总裁拉加德(Christine Lagarde)在曼谷出席CNN活动时表示，法国应透过财政整顿解决债务问题。这番言论降低了市场对欧洲央行可能开始买进法国公债、以压低殖利率的猜测。

由于油价上涨，加上市场持续担忧法国的财政状况，欧元进一步承压。

欧元下跌0.41%，至1.1152美元，兑美元汇率创下17个月新低，兑英镑则跌至16个月新低。

UniCredit外汇策略师Roberto Mialich表示，欧元短期内可能测试1.10美元，但对年底前的欧元走势，他的看法没有那么悲观。他预期，「美国公债殖利率可能回落，尽管欧元区情势仍可能对欧元构成压力。」

《金融时报》周三报导，英国财政大臣John Healey预计，本月预算案中所有新增的支出措施，都将透过加税或削减支出来支应，而非增加借款。

IMF一名高阶官员表示，该机构并未建议英国加快财政整顿的步伐。

英镑兑美元下跌0.59%，至1.3177美元。

美元兑日元下跌0.08%，至158.16日元。

截至台湾时间周四 (15 日) 约 5:50 价格:

美元指数报 102.5422。+0.0123%
欧元兑美元 (EUR/USD)汇率报1欧元兑1.1152美元。-0.0359%
英镑兑美元 (GBP/USD)汇率报1英镑兑1.3187美元。-0.0379%
澳币兑美元 (AUD/USD)汇率报1澳币兑0.6970美元。-0.0287%
美元兑加币 (USD/CAD)汇率报1美元兑1.4235加币。+0.0070%
美元兑日元 (USD/JPY)汇率报1美元兑158.2900日元。-0.0253%

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Fed官员威廉斯与鲍曼释鸽派讯号，褐皮书称劳动市场仍低聘雇、低解雇，市场待零售销售、PPI
欧元受法国财政忧虑与油价上涨压力，跌至1.1152美元、17个月新低；英镑也走弱】【。", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6630310/l/d2106af7ed8290d21ea0b225b949fb6f.jpg", "content": "美元周三(14日)触及至18个月高点，美国通膨数据强于预期，一度重新点燃市场对联准会(Fed)可能在本月稍晚升息的预期。不过，随着投资人重新预期联准会将保持耐心，美元随后自高点回落。\n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6630310/l/d2106af7ed8290d21ea0b225b949fb6f.jpg\" alt=\"〈纽约汇市〉美元触及18个月高点后回落投资人预期Fed仍将保持耐心\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n纽约尾盘，追踪美元兑六种主要货币的美元指数(DXY)上涨0.34%，报102.53，稍早在上午尾盘一度升至102.94。\n\n美国劳工部劳工统计局公布的数据显示，由于汽油价格大幅上涨，美国9月消费者物价明显攀升。\n\nState Street资深全球市场策略师Marvin Loh表示，「CPI数据仍在影响市场估值，而股市下跌又提供了另一个推升美元的理由。」\n\n这份通膨报告盖过了联准会官员近期释出的鸽派讯号，包括纽约联准银行总裁威廉斯(John Williams)的言论。他的评论曾在前一个交易日导致美元走弱。\n\n联准会负责监管事务的副主席鲍曼(Michelle Bowman)周四也释出讯号，表示在再次升息之前，将采取观望态度。\n\n另一方面，联准会周三公布的「褐皮书」显示，美国劳动市场仍处于「低聘雇、低解雇」状态，但部分地区的通膨压力有所升高。\n\nMesirow Currency Management资深投资策略师Uto Shinohara表示，「联准会的双重使命与劳动市场疲弱的迹象之间，仍存在拉锯。明天公布的零售销售、初领失业救济金人数及生产者物价指数(PPI)，应能让我们更清楚掌握消费者状况、劳动市场与物价压力。」\n\n芝商所(CME Group)的FedWatch工具显示，交易员目前预期联准会在10月27日至28日的会议上维持利率不变的机率为65%，高于一个月前的53%。市场预期截至2027年底，累计紧缩幅度约为79个基点。\n\n美国央行上个月将政策利率调升0.25个百分点，使利率区间升至3.75%至4.00%。\n\nAngeles Investments投资长Michael Rosen表示，投资人对美国是否愿意采取行动抑制通膨，正逐渐失去信心。\n\nRosen表示，「我们看到……美元走强受到较高利率的支撑。除非联准会大幅升息、促使经济陷入衰退，或是我们修正贸易与移民政策，否则通膨不会下降。」\n\n欧元面临压力\n\n多国财政与金融主管目前齐聚曼谷，出席国际货币基金(IMF)与世界银行(World Bank)的年度会议。\n\nIMF财政事务主管Rodrigo Valdes表示，IMF已提高对各国政府控制不断攀升债务的呼吁力度。IMF总裁Kristalina Georgieva则表示，美国需要进行财政调整，让债务走上更可持续的道路。\n\n法国公债是近期全球债券抛售潮中受冲击最严重市场之一。投资人担心，明年总统大选前的政治角力，可能阻碍法国降低高额财政赤字的努力。\n\n欧洲央行(ECB)总裁拉加德(Christine Lagarde)在曼谷出席CNN活动时表示，法国应透过财政整顿解决债务问题。这番言论降低了市场对欧洲央行可能开始买进法国公债、以压低殖利率的猜测。\n\n由于油价上涨，加上市场持续担忧法国的财政状况，欧元进一步承压。\n\n欧元下跌0.41%，至1.1152美元，兑美元汇率创下17个月新低，兑英镑则跌至16个月新低。\n\nUniCredit外汇策略师Roberto Mialich表示，欧元短期内可能测试1.10美元，但对年底前的欧元走势，他的看法没有那么悲观。他预期，「美国公债殖利率可能回落，尽管欧元区情势仍可能对欧元构成压力。」\n\n《金融时报》周三报导，英国财政大臣John Healey预计，本月预算案中所有新增的支出措施，都将透过加税或削减支出来支应，而非增加借款。\n\nIMF一名高阶官员表示，该机构并未建议英国加快财政整顿的步伐。\n\n英镑兑美元下跌0.59%，至1.3177美元。\n\n美元兑日元下跌0.08%，至158.16日元。\n\n截至台湾时间周四 (15 日) 约 5:50 价格:\n\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/index/GI/DXY\">美元指数</a>报 102.5422。+0.0123%</li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/eurusd\">欧元</a>兑美元 (EUR/USD)汇率报1<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/eurusd\">欧元</a>兑1.1152美元。-0.0359%</li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/gbpusd\">英镑</a>兑美元 (GBP/USD)汇率报1<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/gbpusd\">英镑</a>兑1.3187美元。-0.0379%</li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/audusd\">澳币</a>兑美元 (AUD/USD)汇率报1<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/audusd\">澳币</a>兑0.6970美元。-0.0287%</li>\n<li>美元兑<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/cadusd\">加币</a> (USD/CAD)汇率报1美元兑1.4235<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/cadusd\">加币</a>。+0.0070%</li>\n<li>美元兑<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/jpyusd\">日元</a> (USD/JPY)汇率报1美元兑158.2900<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/jpyusd\">日元</a>。-0.0253%</li>\n</ul><div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-3305.html\" title=\"Fed转鹰抗通膨？美银惊人预测：今年升息3次 2028年前不降息\">Fed转鹰抗通膨？美银惊人预测：今年升息3次 2028年前不降息</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-2116.html\" title=\"AI热潮不间断台积电5月营收4,169亿元创单月新高\">AI热潮不间断台积电5月营收4,169亿元创单月新高</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-341.html\" title=\"关税退款逼近1490亿美元川普气炸：会改其他方式再课税\">关税退款逼近1490亿美元川普气炸：会改其他方式再课税</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-12967.html\" title=\"苹果秋季发表会9月10日凌晨登场料「惊喜耀现」六大新品阵容\">苹果秋季发表会9月10日凌晨登场料「惊喜耀现」六大新品阵容</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-18485.html\" title=\"科技主导全球市场周期！a16z：86%创投资金流向AI、半导体与电力基建成投资焦点\">科技主导全球市场周期！a16z：86%创投资金流向AI、半导体与电力基建成投资焦点</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-7732.html\" title=\"AMD AI大会前夕辉达出招 Vera Rubin平台进入量产 300家伙伴抢部署\">AMD AI大会前夕辉达出招 Vera Rubin平台进入量产 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