AI巨头排队敲钟新股供给每月1000亿美元谁来接住SpaceX与OpenAI？

随着 SpaceX、OpenAI 与 Anthropic 等未上市科技巨头相继传出筹备 IPO，美国股市可能迎来史上最大规模的新股发行浪潮。不过，GLJ Research 分析师 Gordon Johnson 近日提出警告指出，市场正面临前所未见的股票供给洪流，而可承接的新资金规模却远远不足，投资人应警惕这可能成为市场见顶讯号。

Johnson 在社群平台 X 发文表示，2026 年美国营运型企业 IPO 募资总额有望达到约 2,000 亿美元，不仅超越 1999 年至 2000 年网路泡沫高峰时期的合计募资规模，也远高于 2021 年投机热潮期间约 1,190 亿美元的纪录。

他指出，若将即将上市的 SpaceX、OpenAI 与 Anthropic 纳入考量，再加上近期大型科技企业接连宣布股权融资计划，未来三至四个月市场可能面临每月约 1,000 亿美元的新股票供给。

近期已有多家科技巨头启动大规模募资。Alphabet (GOOGL-US) 宣布约 847.5 亿美元股权融资计划；Meta Platforms (META-US) 据传评估规模达数百亿美元的增资方案；Oracle (ORCL-US) 则在整体融资计划中纳入约 200 亿美元股权融资；Super Micro Computer (SMCI-US) 近期也完成约 70 亿美元股票与可转换公司债募资。

Johnson 认为，市场普遍低估了这波股票供给的实际规模。除了 IPO 之外，还包括增资发行、ATM(At-The-Market) 持续发行计划，以及大股东于次级市场出售持股等形式，均会增加市场股票供给。

他表示：「这不是在吸引资本，而是在一笔一笔抽干市场现金。」

Johnson 分析指出，美国家庭目前可支配所得约 17.93 兆美元，以 2.6% 的储蓄率计算，全美每月新增储蓄仅约 390 亿美元。相较之下，单是 SpaceX 目前市场估值便已接近 800 亿美元，而 OpenAI 与 Anthropic 若未来上市，规模可能更加惊人。

他认为，市场无法以每月 390 亿美元新增资金，持续消化每月高达 1,000 亿美元的新股票供给。

根据其计算，美国全年新增储蓄约 1 兆美元，而未来数月预估的新股供给规模便可能接近甚至超越此数字。

Johnson 强调，股票发行本身不会创造新的投资资金。无论是 IPO 还是增资，本质上都是要求投资人重新配置现有资产。每投入新股的一美元，就代表从其他股票、债券或现金部位抽走一美元，因此大量发行将直接与市场流动性竞争。

在他看来，这类超大型募资案对市场最大的影响并非带来资金流入，而是从既有市场抽离流动性，进而压抑其他资产价格表现。

Johnson 并引用历史案例指出，股票发行规模创下历史新高的时期，往往伴随市场过度乐观情绪。2000 年网路泡沫与 2021 年 SPAC 狂潮期间，都曾出现企业与内部人士趁市场热度高涨时大量出售股票的情况，而随后市场均出现明显修正。

其中，2021 年创纪录的新股发行热潮后，美股于当年底开始转弱，并在 2022 年演变成全面性熊市。

虽然 Johnson 承认目前 AI 产业发展前景与当年网路泡沫或 SPAC 热潮存在差异，但他认为供需法则并未改变。

他指出，投资人真正需要思考的问题，不是 SpaceX、OpenAI 或 Anthropic 是否拥有优秀商业模式，而是在面对规模空前的股票供给时，市场是否具备足够资金承接，而不对现有资产价格造成冲击。

市场人士则认为，美国退休基金、主权基金、共同基金及全球机构资金仍可能成为大型 IPO 的重要买盘来源，但若短时间内多家重量级企业同步上市，确实可能对市场流动性与估值形成压力。

随着 AI 热潮推升企业估值持续攀升，未来数季包括 SpaceX、OpenAI 与 Anthropic 在内的明星企业是否正式启动 IPO，以及市场最终能否消化庞大供给，将成为华尔街最受关注的焦点之一。

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明星企业陆续传出上市计划，但研究机构警告，未来数月股票供给规模恐远超市场资金承接能力，历史经验显示，创纪录的新股发行往往不是牛市延续讯号，反而可能成为市场转折前兆。", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6503924/l/9cecedfc0a084ea5e9c02e8c764071d2.jpg", "content": "随着 <a href=\"https://www.spacex.com?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">SpaceX</a>、<a href=\"https://openai.com?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">OpenAI</a> 与 <a href=\"https://www.anthropic.com?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Anthropic</a> 等未上市科技巨头相继传出筹备 IPO，美国股市可能迎来史上最大规模的新股发行浪潮。不过，GLJ Research 分析师 Gordon Johnson 近日提出警告指出，市场正面临前所未见的股票供给洪流，而可承接的新资金规模却远远不足，投资人应警惕这可能成为市场见顶讯号。\n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6503924/l/9cecedfc0a084ea5e9c02e8c764071d2.jpg\" alt=\"AI巨头排队敲钟新股供给每月1000亿美元谁来接住SpaceX与OpenAI？\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\nJohnson 在社群平台 X 发文表示，2026 年美国营运型企业 IPO 募资总额有望达到约 2,000 亿美元，不仅超越 1999 年至 2000 年网路泡沫高峰时期的合计募资规模，也远高于 2021 年投机热潮期间约 1,190 亿美元的纪录。\n\n他指出，若将即将上市的 SpaceX、OpenAI 与 Anthropic 纳入考量，再加上近期大型科技企业接连宣布股权融资计划，未来三至四个月市场可能面临每月约 1,000 亿美元的新股票供给。\n\n近期已有多家科技巨头启动大规模募资。Alphabet (GOOGL-US) 宣布约 847.5 亿美元股权融资计划；Meta Platforms (META-US) 据传评估规模达数百亿美元的增资方案；Oracle (ORCL-US) 则在整体融资计划中纳入约 200 亿美元股权融资；Super Micro Computer (SMCI-US) 近期也完成约 70 亿美元股票与可转换公司债募资。\n\nJohnson 认为，市场普遍低估了这波股票供给的实际规模。除了 IPO 之外，还包括增资发行、ATM(At-The-Market) 持续发行计划，以及大股东于次级市场出售持股等形式，均会增加市场股票供给。\n\n他表示：「这不是在吸引资本，而是在一笔一笔抽干市场现金。」\n\nJohnson 分析指出，美国家庭目前可支配所得约 17.93 兆美元，以 2.6% 的储蓄率计算，全美每月新增储蓄仅约 390 亿美元。相较之下，单是 SpaceX 目前市场估值便已接近 800 亿美元，而 OpenAI 与 Anthropic 若未来上市，规模可能更加惊人。\n\n他认为，市场无法以每月 390 亿美元新增资金，持续消化每月高达 1,000 亿美元的新股票供给。\n\n根据其计算，美国全年新增储蓄约 1 兆美元，而未来数月预估的新股供给规模便可能接近甚至超越此数字。\n\nJohnson 强调，股票发行本身不会创造新的投资资金。无论是 IPO 还是增资，本质上都是要求投资人重新配置现有资产。每投入新股的一美元，就代表从其他股票、债券或现金部位抽走一美元，因此大量发行将直接与市场流动性竞争。\n\n在他看来，这类超大型募资案对市场最大的影响并非带来资金流入，而是从既有市场抽离流动性，进而压抑其他资产价格表现。\n\nJohnson 并引用历史案例指出，股票发行规模创下历史新高的时期，往往伴随市场过度乐观情绪。2000 年网路泡沫与 2021 年 SPAC 狂潮期间，都曾出现企业与内部人士趁市场热度高涨时大量出售股票的情况，而随后市场均出现明显修正。\n\n其中，2021 年创纪录的新股发行热潮后，美股于当年底开始转弱，并在 2022 年演变成全面性熊市。\n\n虽然 Johnson 承认目前 AI 产业发展前景与当年网路泡沫或 SPAC 热潮存在差异，但他认为供需法则并未改变。\n\n他指出，投资人真正需要思考的问题，不是 SpaceX、OpenAI 或 Anthropic 是否拥有优秀商业模式，而是在面对规模空前的股票供给时，市场是否具备足够资金承接，而不对现有资产价格造成冲击。\n\n市场人士则认为，美国退休基金、主权基金、共同基金及全球机构资金仍可能成为大型 IPO 的重要买盘来源，但若短时间内多家重量级企业同步上市，确实可能对市场流动性与估值形成压力。\n\n随着 AI 热潮推升企业估值持续攀升，未来数季包括 SpaceX、OpenAI 与 Anthropic 在内的明星企业是否正式启动 IPO，以及市场最终能否消化庞大供给，将成为华尔街最受关注的焦点之一。\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-22632.html\" title=\"通膨不会自己降！穆萨列姆吁Fed尽快再升息市场估12月升息机率近八成\">通膨不会自己降！穆萨列姆吁Fed尽快再升息市场估12月升息机率近八成</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-13042.html\" title=\"法国抛注销18%公债诉求！全球恐走向「凭空抹债」加剧通膨\">法国抛注销18%公债诉求！全球恐走向「凭空抹债」加剧通膨</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-19542.html\" title=\"iPhone 18 Pro卖不动？《日经》：苹果10月零组件订单砍15%至20%\">iPhone 18 Pro卖不动？《日经》：苹果10月零组件订单砍15%至20%</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-12047.html\" title=\"Fed 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