〈纽约汇市〉美元升至一年多高点鹰派Fed盖过美伊协议利多

美元周四 (18 日) 上涨，升至 2025 年 5 月中旬以来最高水准。此前一天，联准会 (Fed) 预测今年至少还将升息一次。虽然美国与伊朗外交关系取得突破提振市场风险偏好，但对美元的影响有限。

纽约尾盘，追踪美元兑六种主要货币的美元指数 (DXY) 上涨 0.7%，报 100.83。

外汇市场仍在消化近年最受关注的联准会利率决策与记者会内容。联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 一致表决通过，将联邦资金利率维持在 3.50% 至 3.75% 区间不变，符合市场预期。

华尔街同时收到一份经过大幅修改的 FOMC 声明。与前主席鲍尔 (Jerome Powell) 时期相比，新版声明篇幅明显缩短，删除了前瞻指引，并以一句简单明确的宣示作结：「委员会将实现价格稳定。」

FOMC 公布的最新经济预测摘要与点阵图显示，2026 年底联邦资金利率预估值为 3.8%，高于今年 3 月预测的 3.4%。

这份点阵图展现明显鹰派倾向。在 18 位 FOMC 成员中，有 9 位预计今年将升息一次。整体预测也从原先至少降息两次、每次 1 码，转变为升息一次、1 码。

各类资产投资人周三并未聚焦于华许的改革蓝图，而是将注意力集中在点阵图转向鹰派。

华尔街股市下跌，标普 500 指数重挫 1.2%，创下新任联准会主席首次利率决策日的最差表现纪录。美元指数跳升，美国公债则遭遇抛售，推升殖利率大幅上扬。

Interactive Brokers 资深经济学家 José Torres 表示，「昨日会后记者会的一个重点，是华许质疑传统上货币政策紧缩与就业市场之间的取舍关系。在新的政策框架下，华许相信央行可以在不明显拖累就业与经济成长的情况下，达成通膨目标。」

Torres 补充表示，「另一方面，长天期殖利率相对温和、美元持续走强，正向股市投资人传递重要讯号。这显示金融条件转趋鹰派的影响，主要将集中在殖利率曲线较短端。」

英国央行按兵不动日本警告日元走势

英国央行 (BoE) 货币政策委员会周四如市场预期，将基准利率维持在 3.75% 不变。

英国央行表示，中东冲突引发的油价飙升已有所回落，但价格仍维持在相对高档。同时，能源成本上升的连锁效应，预计将再度推升通膨。

英镑在决议公布后走弱，兑美元下跌 0.6%，至 1.3203 美元。稍早公布的就业数据显示市场出现稳定迹象，一度帮助英镑收复部分跌幅。

日元则持续走弱，美元兑日元进一步升破 160 关卡。此价位过去曾引发日本政府进场干预。

日本媒体周四报导，日本内阁官房长官木原稔 (Minoru Kihara) 表示，「政府已准备好在必要时，适当因应汇率波动。」

美伊签署临时和平协议

中东方面，美国总统川普周三在法国凡尔赛宫晚宴期间，与伊朗签署一份合作备忘录 (MoU)。白宫公布的照片，以及法国总统马克宏(Emmanuel Macron) 在社群媒体发布的影片，都显示双方已完成签署。

伊朗总统 Masoud Pezeshkian 也在社群平台发布伊朗版本的签署文件，并形容这是一份「历史性文件」，是「国家韧性、政治理性与负责任外交」的成果。

根据伊朗公布的内容，该备忘录将终止所有战线上的军事行动，包括黎巴嫩，并启动为期 60 天的谈判期，以推动最终和平协议。

伊朗也再次承诺不会取得或研发核武器，并同意在谈判期间透过双方认可的机制处理浓缩核材料。

最关键的是，荷姆兹海峡 (Strait of Hormuz) 将在未来 60 天内重新开放，且不收取任何通行费或其他费用。

截至台湾时间周五 (19 日) 约 6:00 价格:

美元指数报 100.8122。-0.0201%
欧元兑美元 (EUR/USD) 汇率报 1 欧元兑 1.1460 美元。+0.0262%
英镑兑美元 (GBP/USD) 汇率报 1 英镑兑 1.3204 美元。0.0000%
澳币兑美元 (AUD/USD) 汇率报 1 澳币兑 0.7014 美元。0.0000%
美元兑加币 (USD/CAD) 汇率报 1 美元兑 1.4134 加币。-0.0212%
美元兑日元 (USD/JPY) 汇率报 1 美元兑 161.3500 日元。-0.0310%

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月预测的 3.4%。\n\n这份点阵图展现明显鹰派倾向。在 18 位 FOMC 成员中，有 9 位预计今年将升息一次。整体预测也从原先至少降息两次、每次 1 码，转变为升息一次、1 码。\n\n各类资产投资人周三并未聚焦于华许的改革蓝图，而是将注意力集中在点阵图转向鹰派。\n\n华尔街股市下跌，标普 500 指数重挫 1.2%，创下新任联准会主席首次利率决策日的最差表现纪录。美元指数跳升，美国公债则遭遇抛售，推升殖利率大幅上扬。\n\nInteractive Brokers 资深经济学家 José Torres 表示，「昨日会后记者会的一个重点，是华许质疑传统上货币政策紧缩与就业市场之间的取舍关系。在新的政策框架下，华许相信央行可以在不明显拖累就业与经济成长的情况下，达成通膨目标。」\n\nTorres 补充表示，「另一方面，长天期殖利率相对温和、美元持续走强，正向股市投资人传递重要讯号。这显示金融条件转趋鹰派的影响，主要将集中在殖利率曲线较短端。」\n\n英国央行按兵不动 日本警告日元走势\n\n英国央行 (BoE) 货币政策委员会周四如市场预期，将基准利率维持在 3.75% 不变。\n\n英国央行表示，中东冲突引发的油价飙升已有所回落，但价格仍维持在相对高档。同时，能源成本上升的连锁效应，预计将再度推升通膨。\n\n英镑在决议公布后走弱，兑美元下跌 0.6%，至 1.3203 美元。稍早公布的就业数据显示市场出现稳定迹象，一度帮助英镑收复部分跌幅。\n\n日元则持续走弱，美元兑日元进一步升破 160 关卡。此价位过去曾引发日本政府进场干预。\n\n日本媒体周四报导，日本内阁官房长官木原稔 (Minoru Kihara) 表示，「政府已准备好在必要时，适当因应汇率波动。」\n\n美伊签署临时和平协议\n\n中东方面，美国总统川普周三在法国凡尔赛宫晚宴期间，与伊朗签署一份合作备忘录 (MoU)。白宫公布的照片，以及法国总统马克宏(Emmanuel Macron) 在社群媒体发布的影片，都显示双方已完成签署。\n\n伊朗总统 Masoud Pezeshkian 也在社群平台发布伊朗版本的签署文件，并形容这是一份「历史性文件」，是「国家韧性、政治理性与负责任外交」的成果。\n\n根据伊朗公布的内容，该备忘录将终止所有战线上的军事行动，包括黎巴嫩，并启动为期 60 天的谈判期，以推动最终和平协议。\n\n伊朗也再次承诺不会取得或研发核武器，并同意在谈判期间透过双方认可的机制处理浓缩核材料。\n\n最关键的是，荷姆兹海峡 (Strait of Hormuz) 将在未来 60 天内重新开放，且不收取任何通行费或其他费用。\n\n截至台湾时间周五 (19 日) 约 6:00 价格:\n\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/index/GI/DXY\">美元指数</a>报 100.8122。-0.0201% </li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/eurusd\">欧元</a>兑美元 (EUR/USD) 汇率报 1 <a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/eurusd\">欧元</a>兑 1.1460 美元。+0.0262% </li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/gbpusd\">英镑</a>兑美元 (GBP/USD) 汇率报 1 <a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/gbpusd\">英镑</a>兑 1.3204 美元。0.0000% </li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/audusd\">澳币</a>兑美元 (AUD/USD) 汇率报 1 <a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/audusd\">澳币</a>兑 0.7014 美元。0.0000%</li>\n<li> 美元兑<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/cadusd\">加币</a> (USD/CAD) 汇率报 1 美元兑 1.4134 <a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/cadusd\">加币</a>。-0.0212%</li>\n<li> 美元兑<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/jpyusd\">日元</a> (USD/JPY) 汇率报 1 美元兑 161.3500 <a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/jpyusd\">日元</a>。-0.0310%</li>\n</ul>\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-5774.html\" title=\"AI股王跌落神坛？辉达市值蒸发1兆美元估值竟比标普500便宜\">AI股王跌落神坛？辉达市值蒸发1兆美元估值竟比标普500便宜</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-4770.html\" title=\"晶片股最大利空来了？Meta拟卖「过剩AI算力」撼动市场将成第一个削减资本支出大厂？\">晶片股最大利空来了？Meta拟卖「过剩AI算力」撼动市场将成第一个削减资本支出大厂？</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-13814.html\" title=\"Uber突然大裁员！3300人丢饭碗完全远距员工只留1%\">Uber突然大裁员！3300人丢饭碗完全远距员工只留1%</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-13976.html\" title=\"美债大跌另有元凶！「神秘利率」升高暗示高利率恐成新常态\">美债大跌另有元凶！「神秘利率」升高暗示高利率恐成新常态</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-3846.html\" title=\"《大卖空》原型：平仓半数Palantir空头部位卖出阿里巴巴加码京东、微软LEAPS\">《大卖空》原型：平仓半数Palantir空头部位卖出阿里巴巴加码京东、微软LEAPS</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-15500.html\" 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