〈台股盘前要闻〉MSCI调整生效提防量价震荡、台指期夜盘失守4万6

8/31台股盘前要闻

1.美国联准会主席鲍尔释出鹰派态度，市场预期9月升息的机率升高，冲击美股周五盘面，台指期夜盘失守4万6，加上MSCI(明晟)最新季度调整将于周一(31日)生效，有可能在当天尾盘量价剧烈震荡，也令台股本周9月开局面临杂音，台股交易员认为，辉达财报带动的多方气势具一定的撑盘力度，再加上正处电子传统旺季，即将公布的8月营收可期，因此，站上4万6后若行情拉回，低接动能也不弱，先观察外资回流的力道能否延续。

2.MSCI 三大指数同步调升台股权重，周一(31日)盘后生效，加上辉达财报超标效应持续显现，台股市场情绪大受激励，不仅三大法人站在买方，单周合计买超台股988亿元，大盘成交量能也连续 4 天放大，上周五成交金额站回兆元大关，显示法人散户合力看多台股，资金同步归队，有望再次点燃台股资金行情。

3.在资金持续汇入的态势下，新台币28日全日处在升值格局，终场收在31.628元，升值8分，台北外汇经纪公司成交值16.8亿美元，已连续升值5周，累计升值7.3角。

4.国泰金控(2882-TW)今(28)日召开 2026 年第二季法说会，核心子公司国泰人寿上半年本业、投资两头赚，加计FVOCI股票处分损益之避险后投资收益率达5.55%，其中，台股投报率高达 39%，截至 8 月下旬国内外股票未实现利益已回升至逾 2200 亿元；截至上半年，国寿 CSM 总额达 5470 亿元，总经理林昭廷预期全年 CSM 成长率将突破 10% 目标。

5.上海航运交易所今(28)日公布最新上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI，综合指数续涨99.91点至3509.54点，较上期3409.63点上涨，涨幅2.93%，成功冲破3500点整数大关并迎来连续5周收红。

6.少子化与高龄化趋势加剧，我国人口结构即将正式告别劳动力充沛期，且「人口红利」结束的时间点由原本预估的 2028 年延后两年至 2030 年，国发会人力发展处长谢佳宜特别厘清，此一「延后」并非劳动环境改善，而是结构变动速度减缓的「比例变动」；推估50年后除人口数减半，老年人口占比将高达 52.9%，年龄中位数飙升至 67.1 岁，呈现「每两人就有一人 65 岁以上」的超高龄现象。面对少子化、高龄化及缺工，国发会下半年将在行政院提出「银发世代」、「全龄育才」与「全球揽才」三战略因应。

〈台股风向球〉9月开局4万6多空拔河外资回流动能成行情一大关键

〈台股盘后〉重回兆元量推涨356点站稳4万6 周线收红涨1107点

外资买超415亿元偏爱联电及金控股期货同步翻多单周买超1107亿元

〈台币〉资金簇拥汇入升8分收31.628元连5周升值共7.3角

内外资齐力拱盘！法人：从权值股转到中小型题材台股Risk-on讯号亮灯

〈国泰金法说〉国寿股票未实现回升至逾2200亿元估全年CSM成长超过1成

〈国泰金法说〉AI带动企金放款强劲国泰世华银全年NIM展望乐观上调

辉达财报+MSCI双利多！台股兆元量再现法人单周扫货10档ETF名单一次看

人口红利延至2030年消失该紧张？国发会示警「老年海啸」下半年急祭3解方

〈航运指数〉连5红冲上3500点巴拿马运河紧缩助攻美东线突破1万美元

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