天天财经

非农爆冲只是前菜!本周「更大未爆弹」来袭,这事千万别做!

2026-09-07 08:48:24 网络 阅读(1)

美国8月非农就业暴增远高于市场预期,在「经济太强」的数据+让市场开始担心联准会升息下,周五道琼下跌超过270点、标普500与那斯达克同步走弱。但重点不在这!而在费半指数居然逆势狂飙 3.37%!这个讯号,值得大家特别留意。因为它透露出一件非常重要的事:

非农爆冲只是前菜!本周「更大未爆弹」来袭,这事千万别做!

「资金没有离开AI,只是在重新排队。」

这也是江江认为,台股9月最重要的投资主线。

非农爆表,为什么费半反而大涨?

非农公布后,美国对9月升息的预期明显升温,市场定价一度把升息机率推高至约58%~61%;美债殖利率同步走高。正常来说,利率升高会打击高本益比股票。

所以那些「未来很美、但现在赚不到什么钱」的公司,压力自然比较大。可是AI半导体不太一样。因为现在市场买的已经不是单纯的「AI梦想」,而是:订单、出货、资本支出、产能利用率,以及实际EPS。这就是为什么周五费半逆势上涨的主因。

再仔细来看!费半体上涨3.37%中;记忆体与光通讯族群成为当天主要强势来源。这代表升息打的是估值,但真正强势的AI供应链,现在靠的是获利。这两件事情完全不同。

9月选股不选市!AI供应链指标股「获利实力」大拆解

九月联联准会开会前,指数震荡难免,但选股才是关键。手上的股票,到底是靠获利在撑,还是靠本益比在吹?看看下面这几档指标龙头的利基就知道:

台积电(2330-TW) 先进制程与CoWoS产能持续扩充,AI加速器订单能见度拉到明年,获利成长性最稳。

日月光投控(3711-TW) 先进封装产能吃紧,直接吃到AI晶片封测红利,量价齐扬空间大。

南亚科(2408-TW) HBM与高阶记忆体需求排挤传统产能,ASP与结构性缺货支撑获利上修。

华邦电(2344-TW) 利基型记忆体与NOR Flash受AI边缘装置带动,结构性需求推升毛利。

欣兴(3037-TW) 高阶ABF载板吃AI封装,营收占比提升中,定价力明显。

南电(8046-TW) ABF载板供应高阶AI晶片,产能利用率与ASP同步上行。

京元电(2449-TW) AI晶片测试与烧录需求大增,高阶测试产能利用率往上冲。

家登(3680-TW) CoWoS载具已验证,先进封装设备链直接受惠,订单能见度高。

众达-KY(4977-TW) 800G/1.6T光模组与CPO光引擎卡位NVIDIA生态,高速传输瓶颈位。

上诠(3363-TW) CPO光纤耦光组装(FAU)直接卡位矽光子生态,产线已建置待放量。

华星光(4979-TW) 800G光收发模组量产出货,客户扩至多家云端业者,放量初期。

联亚(3081-TW) 雷射磊晶片供应高速光通讯与矽光子,营收连续改写新高。

鸿海(2317-TW) 整柜式AI伺服器与液冷散热出货放量,基础建设投资持续。

广达(2382-TW) AI伺服器整柜市占居前,客户资本支出转单能见度高。

纬创(3231-TW) AI伺服器整柜与客制化机种出货加速,获利弹性明显放大。

纬颖(6669-TW) 云端服务商AI伺服器订单强劲,整柜液冷整合能力领先。

金像电(2368-TW) 高层数高频高速板吃AI主板与加速卡需求,材料升级带动ASP。

以上公司共同的特点就是:订单能验证、获利+营收有出来。利率再高一点,对它们的影响远小于「本益比撑着、还没真正赚到钱」的公司。

重申:九月台股选股比选市重要一百倍。接下来若再看到大盘跌别急着恐慌。先问自己手上的股票:它是靠获利在撑,还是靠本益比在撑?答案出来了,该怎么布局也就清楚了。

更多产业趋势报告+盘中讯息→请加入江江Line@:

https://lin.ee/vTaRqlQ

江江每日解盘影片→含金量满满,节目内容太精彩+太权威惹!

坚持用心制作优质好节目,一定要看到最后!

并且【订阅+按赞+分享帮助好友】

文章来源:摩尔投顾-江国中分析师

本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险

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    "content": "<p>美国8月非农就业暴增远高于市场预期,在「经济太强」的数据+让市场开始担心联准会升息下,周五道琼下跌超过270点、标普500与那斯达克同步走弱。但重点不在这!而在费半指数居然逆势狂飙 3.37%!这个讯号,值得大家特别留意。因为它透露出一件非常重要的事:</p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6598983/l/879b215a4b5a667cd8b58203d0a02804.jpg\" alt=\"非农爆冲只是前菜!本周「更大未爆弹」来袭,这事千万别做!\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<p>「资金没有离开AI,只是在重新排队。」</p>\n\n<p>这也是江江认为,台股9月最重要的投资主线。</p>\n\n<p><em>非农爆表,为什么费半反而大涨?</em></p>\n\n<p>非农公布后,美国对9月升息的预期明显升温,市场定价一度把升息机率推高至约58%~61%;美债殖利率同步走高。正常来说,利率升高会打击高本益比股票。</p>\n\n<p>所以那些「未来很美、但现在赚不到什么钱」的公司,压力自然比较大。可是AI半导体不太一样。因为现在市场买的已经不是单纯的「AI梦想」,而是:订单、出货、资本支出、产能利用率,以及实际EPS。这就是为什么周五费半逆势上涨的主因。</p>\n\n<p>再仔细来看!费半体上涨3.37%中;记忆体与光通讯族群成为当天主要强势来源。这代表升息打的是估值,但真正强势的AI供应链,现在靠的是获利。这两件事情完全不同。</p>\n\n<p><em>9月选股不选市!AI供应链指标股「获利实力」大拆解</em></p>\n\n<p>九月联联准会开会前,指数震荡难免,但选股才是关键。手上的股票,到底是靠获利在撑,还是靠本益比在吹?看看下面这几档指标龙头的利基就知道:</p>\n\n<p>台积电(2330-TW) 先进制程与CoWoS产能持续扩充,AI加速器订单能见度拉到明年,获利成长性最稳。</p>\n\n<p>日月光投控(3711-TW) 先进封装产能吃紧,直接吃到AI晶片封测红利,量价齐扬空间大。</p>\n\n<p>南亚科(2408-TW) HBM与高阶记忆体需求排挤传统产能,ASP与结构性缺货支撑获利上修。</p>\n\n<p>华邦电(2344-TW) 利基型记忆体与NOR Flash受AI边缘装置带动,结构性需求推升毛利。</p>\n\n<p>欣兴(3037-TW) 高阶ABF载板吃AI封装,营收占比提升中,定价力明显。</p>\n\n<p>南电(8046-TW) ABF载板供应高阶AI晶片,产能利用率与ASP同步上行。</p>\n\n<p>京元电(2449-TW) AI晶片测试与烧录需求大增,高阶测试产能利用率往上冲。</p>\n\n<p>家登(3680-TW) CoWoS载具已验证,先进封装设备链直接受惠,订单能见度高。</p>\n\n<p>众达-KY(4977-TW) 800G/1.6T光模组与CPO光引擎卡位NVIDIA生态,高速传输瓶颈位。</p>\n\n<p>上诠(3363-TW) CPO光纤耦光组装(FAU)直接卡位矽光子生态,产线已建置待放量。</p>\n\n<p>华星光(4979-TW) 800G光收发模组量产出货,客户扩至多家云端业者,放量初期。</p>\n\n<p>联亚(3081-TW) 雷射磊晶片供应高速光通讯与矽光子,营收连续改写新高。</p>\n\n<p>鸿海(2317-TW) 整柜式AI伺服器与液冷散热出货放量,基础建设投资持续。</p>\n\n<p>广达(2382-TW) AI伺服器整柜市占居前,客户资本支出转单能见度高。</p>\n\n<p>纬创(3231-TW) AI伺服器整柜与客制化机种出货加速,获利弹性明显放大。</p>\n\n<p>纬颖(6669-TW) 云端服务商AI伺服器订单强劲,整柜液冷整合能力领先。</p>\n\n<p>金像电(2368-TW) 高层数高频高速板吃AI主板与加速卡需求,材料升级带动ASP。</p>\n\n<p>以上公司共同的特点就是:订单能验证、获利+营收有出来。利率再高一点,对它们的影响远小于「本益比撑着、还没真正赚到钱」的公司。</p>\n\n<p>重申:九月台股选股比选市重要一百倍。接下来若再看到大盘跌别急着恐慌。先问自己手上的股票:它是靠获利在撑,还是靠本益比在撑?答案出来了,该怎么布局也就清楚了。</p>\n\n<p>更多产业趋势报告+盘中讯息&rarr;请加入江江Line@:</p>\n\n<p><a href=\"https://lin.ee/vTaRqlQ\">https://lin.ee/vTaRqlQ</a></p>\n\n<p>江江每日解盘影片&rarr;含金量满满,节目内容太精彩+太权威惹!</p>\n\n<div class=\"youtube-embed-wrapper\" style=\"position:relative;padding-bottom:56.25%;padding-top:30px;height:0;overflow:hidden;\"><iframe allowfullscreen=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"360\" src=\"//www.youtube.com/embed/tF3xX6T8-7M\" style=\"position: absolute;top: 0;left: 0;width: 100%;height: 100%;\" width=\"640\"></iframe></div>\n\n<p>坚持用心制作优质好节目,一定要看到最后!</p>\n\n<p>并且【订阅+按赞+分享帮助好友】</p>\n\n<p>文章来源:摩尔投顾-江国中分析师</p>\n\n<p class=\"warning\">本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险</p><div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n  <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n  <ul>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-5739.html\" title=\"国产四足机器人问世!所罗门、仁宝等大厂建构MIT机器人生态系\">国产四足机器人问世!所罗门、仁宝等大厂建构MIT机器人生态系</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-12248.html\" title=\"巨亨速报 - Factset 最新调查:亿丰(8464-TW)EPS预估下修至24.37元,预估目标价为456元\">巨亨速报 - Factset 最新调查:亿丰(8464-TW)EPS预估下修至24.37元,预估目标价为456元</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-7142.html\" title=\"〈国泰世华新董座〉年纪大、待得久是我的优势!陈祖培:风雨已过 采最高道德标准重新出发\">〈国泰世华新董座〉年纪大、待得久是我的优势!陈祖培:风雨已过 采最高道德标准重新出发</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-6338.html\" title=\"营收速报  - 全达(8068)6月营收1.52亿元年增率高达181.71%\">营收速报  - 全达(8068)6月营收1.52亿元年增率高达181.71%</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-9004.html\" title=\"6月制造业灯号连2颗黄红灯 景气扬升甚至繁荣的产业占比逾6成\">6月制造业灯号连2颗黄红灯 景气扬升甚至繁荣的产业占比逾6成</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-6375.html\" title=\"〈税收统计〉最强上半年!实征近2.6兆破纪录年增81.5% 证交税和所得税成爆发双引擎\">〈税收统计〉最强上半年!实征近2.6兆破纪录年增81.5% 证交税和所得税成爆发双引擎</a></li>\n  </ul>\n</div>",
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    "createdAt": "2026-09-07T00:29:44.000Z",
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