爆量8千亿强弹是最后狂欢？融资失控狂增，逼近前高小心成为最后接盘侠！

利空出尽激励大盘爆出逾8000亿巨量强弹，看似重启多头，但融资失控暴增、筹码卖压逼近新高，透露出短线抢短与背离警讯。逼近前高压力区，切莫被热络表象迷惑盲目追高；唯有严守持股纪律、拉高现金部位，才能在主力拉高调节的震荡洗盘中全身而退。

〈利空出尽带动回补指数强弹但盘面并未全面转强〉

联准会本次升息一码符合市场原先共识，加上汉测(7856-TW)申购冻结资金回流，今天台股开盘带量走高，盘中一度大涨超过千点，终场加权指数收在46288点，成交金额放大至8194.05亿元，重新回到月均量之上，台积电(2330-TW)上涨45元成为今日指数反弹最主要的推升力量。

今天行情确实印证智霖老师先前的推演，当市场情绪降至冰点，政策不确定性一旦消除，历史统计惯性往往容易触发一波强劲回补，因此短线确实可以让子弹多飞一会，美元指数与美债殖利率并没有明显转弱，亚股也没有全面跟进台股涨势，柜买指数更逆势翻黑，今日反弹仍高度集中在大型权值股，市场广度还未同步改善。

〈封测与耗材接棒补涨高人气PCB反成资金调节区〉

半导体封测今天全面走强，先进封装产能扩张趋势没有改变，大型封测族群前一段时间涨幅相对落后，自然成为资金寻找补涨机会的重要方向，其中京元电子(2449-TW)持续带量消化下弯季线附近的解套卖压，台积电供应链的特用化学品与关键耗材也同步转强，中砂(1560-TW)更再度扮演领头羊，带动先进制程耗材出现落后补涨，近期人气集中的PCB、CCL反而出现明显调节，联茂(6213-TW)跌停，台光电(2383-TW)、台燿(6274-TW)同步走弱，代表高位阶筹码正在进行重新分配，操作不能因为大盘反弹就过度发散。

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APP选股会员每月限额招收，名额有限，每周都会提供最新「信用筹码疑虑名单」，邀请您点选连结下载【陈智霖分析师APP】：https://lihi.cc/zwrii

〈指数逼近前高压力区让子弹多飞一会儿现金部位仍是下一阶段主动权〉

从筹码结构来看，今天卖压仍接近近期高档，买盘则处于今年相对低档，搭配近期融资快速增加，反映这一波上涨更接近事件利空出尽后的抢短与当冲动能，而不是中长线资金全面回流，因此目前策略并没有改变，持股水位仍要严格控制，保留低估值成长股，只搭配极少量短期动能标的，随着指数进一步逼近前波高档压力区，反而要开始纪律采取逢高分批调节，确保手上保有充足现金，等待后续更彻底的拉回洗盘与筹码换手完成，把子弹留给真正具有基本面、规格升级与低基期优势的下一阶段主流，邀请投资人下载【陈智霖分析师APP】，即时资讯都会在APP内第一时间分享，带你用数据掌握节奏，每周也会更新信用筹码疑虑名单，帮你避开风险、锁定机会。

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文章来源：陈智霖分析师 / 凯旭投顾

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href=\"https://news.cnyes.com/tag/%E9%99%B3%E6%99%BA%E9%9C%96\">智霖老师</a>先前的推演，当市场情绪降至冰点，政策不确定性一旦消除，历史统计惯性往往容易触发一波强劲回补，因此短线确实可以让子弹多飞一会，美元指数与美债殖利率并没有明显转弱，亚股也没有全面跟进台股涨势，柜买指数更逆势翻黑，今日反弹仍高度集中在大型权值股，市场广度还未同步改善。\n\n〈封测与耗材接棒补涨高人气PCB反成资金调节区〉\n\n半导体封测今天全面走强，先进封装产能扩张趋势没有改变，大型封测族群前一段时间涨幅相对落后，自然成为资金寻找补涨机会的重要方向，其中京元电子(2449-TW)持续带量消化下弯季线附近的解套卖压，台积电供应链的特用化学品与关键耗材也同步转强，中砂(1560-TW)更再度扮演领头羊，带动先进制程耗材出现落后补涨，近期人气集中的PCB、CCL反而出现明显调节，联茂(6213-TW)跌停，台光电(2383-TW)、台燿(6274-TW)同步走弱，代表高位阶筹码正在进行重新分配，操作不能因为大盘反弹就过度发散。\n\n〈免费下载【陈智霖分析师APP】，掌握第一手盘势资讯与信用筹码名单〉\n\nAPP选股会员每月限额招收，名额有限，每周都会提供最新「信用筹码疑虑名单」，邀请您点选连结下载【陈智霖分析师APP】：<a href=\"https://lihi.cc/zwrii\">https://lihi.cc/zwrii</a>\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"121\" data-mime=\"image/jpeg\" data-ratio=\"4.016528925619835\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6609164/m/7f3aecf9acca7d5ac6cf9577af29ad9d.jpg\" data-width=\"486\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6609164/l/7f3aecf9acca7d5ac6cf9577af29ad9d.jpg\"></figure>\n\n〈指数逼近前高压力区让子弹多飞一会儿现金部位仍是下一阶段主动权〉\n\n从筹码结构来看，今天卖压仍接近近期高档，买盘则处于今年相对低档，搭配近期融资快速增加，反映这一波上涨更接近事件利空出尽后的抢短与当冲动能，而不是中长线资金全面回流，因此目前策略并没有改变，持股水位仍要严格控制，保留低估值成长股，只搭配极少量短期动能标的，随着指数进一步逼近前波高档压力区，反而要开始纪律采取逢高分批调节，确保手上保有充足现金，等待后续更彻底的拉回洗盘与筹码换手完成，把子弹留给真正具有基本面、规格升级与低基期优势的下一阶段主流，邀请投资人下载【陈智霖分析师APP】，即时资讯都会在APP内第一时间分享，带你用数据掌握节奏，每周也会更新信用筹码疑虑名单，帮你避开风险、锁定机会。\n\n最新影音(请点影音上方标题至Youtube收视品质会更佳)\n\n<div class=\"youtube-embed-wrapper\" style=\"position:relative;padding-bottom:56.25%;padding-top:30px;height:0;overflow:hidden;\"><iframe allowfullscreen=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"360\" src=\"//www.youtube.com/embed/8oy5bZMjQPU\" style=\"position: absolute;top: 0;left: 0;width: 100%;height: 100%;\" width=\"640\"></iframe></div>\n\n〈立即填表体验咨询陈智霖分析师会员服务〉\n\n忠实粉丝请先完成填表申请，每周限时开放体验精选操作名单、盘中到价盘中通知与即时策略更新，面对震荡行情，理性分析与数据判断是关键，立即填表跟上专业：<a href=\"https://lihi.cc/RFzlE\">https://lihi.cc/RFzlE</a>\n\n钱进热线 02-2653-8299，立即迈向系统依据的股票操作。\n\n文章来源：陈智霖分析师 / 凯旭投顾\n\n本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券 \n无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利 \n投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-16659.html\" title=\"集团作帐行情助攻南亚、台塑化季底有望进行补涨\">集团作帐行情助攻南亚、台塑化季底有望进行补涨</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-4951.html\" title=\"营收速报 - 勤益控(1437)6月营收1.17亿元年增率高达71.22％\">营收速报 - 勤益控(1437)6月营收1.17亿元年增率高达71.22％</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-7185.html\" title=\"【量大强涨股整理】【台股大崩盘】台积电「利多出尽」？别逃！我只做这件事!\">【量大强涨股整理】【台股大崩盘】台积电「利多出尽」？别逃！我只做这件事!</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-6329.html\" title=\"台股上冲下洗小涨25点、外资连七卖三大法人卖超210.66亿元\">台股上冲下洗小涨25点、外资连七卖三大法人卖超210.66亿元</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-17924.html\" title=\"宏达电携手Mobicom、台扬深化国际5G OpenRAN合作\">宏达电携手Mobicom、台扬深化国际5G OpenRAN合作</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-9027.html\" title=\"〈房产〉房仲7月门市交易量大致持平上月台股高档震荡效应待观察\">〈房产〉房仲7月门市交易量大致持平上月台股高档震荡效应待观察</a></li>\n </ul>\n</div>", "status": 0, "pv": 63, "link": 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