【量大强涨股整理】【台股大崩盘】台积电「利多出尽」？别逃！我只做这件事!

【台股大崩盘】台积电「利多出尽」？别逃！我只做这件事!

影片中分享给你知道
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再来看一下今天的台股!

加权指数今日开低走低，终场下跌 2953.71 点，收在 42671.27，成交量 12129.57 亿。

观察三大法人今天筹码动向，外资卖超 1890.38 亿元，投信买超 95.02 亿元，自营商卖超 821.79 亿元，三大法人合计卖超 2617.15 亿元，其中，外资自营商连卖十一日，自营商连卖二日，投信则连买十八日共买超 1830.77 亿元。

美股周四全面收黑，市场避险情绪快速升温，费城半导体指数重挫 4.29%，标普 500 指数、道琼工业指数及那斯达克指数同步收低，其中 (NVDA-US) 辉达，(AMD-US) 超微，(AVGO-US) 博通，等 AI 与半导体权值股全面走弱，(TSM-US) 台积电 ADR，跌逾 2%，反映市场对 AI 资本支出持续攀升、美伊冲突升温，以及资金获利了结的担忧。

受到国际股市疲弱影响，为今日台股增添沉重卖压，加权指数今日开低走低，电子权值股全面承压，终场下跌 2953.71 点，收在 42671.27，成交量 12129.57 亿，(2330-TW) 台积电，(2317-TW) 鸿海，(2454-TW) 联发科，等大型权值股成为主要杀盘重心，不过金融股相对抗跌，包括 (2882-TW) 国泰金，(2881-TW) 富邦金，及 (2891-TW) 中信金，跌幅均明显低于电子股，显示市场资金开始转向高殖利率及防御型族群，降低整体盘势跌幅扩大的速度。

整体而言，从台湾企业营运表现来看，基本面同样维持强劲，上市柜公司 6 月营收达 5.65 兆元，第二季营收 16.12 兆元，上半年累计营收 29.98 兆元，三项数据同步改写历史新高，上半年营收年增逾三成，显示 AI、高速运算、网通、伺服器及电子零组件需求持续推升企业营收成长，也为台股提供坚实支撑，目前市场最大的变数仍在于地缘政治风险、美国联准会后续利率政策，以及短线筹码快速调节所带来的波动，但若观察 AI 产业链发展，无论是云端服务供应商持续扩建资料中心，或是 AI 伺服器、高速传输、先进封装及高阶晶片需求，整体成长趋势并未改变，因此此次修正较像是涨多后的健康整理，而非景气循环反转。

展望后市，只要 (2330-TW) 台积电，股价逐步止稳，加上企业第二季财报陆续公布、营收与获利持续优于市场预期，台股仍有机会重新回归基本面主导行情，操作策略上，建议投资人避免追高杀低，可利用盘势震荡分批布局，持续关注 AI 供应链、AI 伺服器、高速运算、高阶半导体、营收创高，以及下半年旺季受惠族群，待市场恐慌情绪逐步消化后，指数仍有机会重返偏多格局。

权值股方面，(2330-TW) 台积电，下跌 7.29%，收在 2290 元，法说会再度释出优于市场预期的展望，不仅将 2026 年美元营收成长预估由 30% 以上调升至略高于 40%，更同步上修全年资本支出至 600 亿至 640 亿美元，创下历史新高，第二季毛利率达 67.7%，优于市场预估，每股盈余 27.25 元同创新高，显示 AI 伺服器、高效能运算 HPC 及先进制程需求依然强劲，并未因短线市场震荡而出现降温迹象，也代表全球 AI 投资趋势仍持续深化，此外外资法人同步提高评价，麦格理证券将台积电目标价一举调升至 4,200 元，刷新市场最高目标价纪录，反映法人对未来数年 AI 晶片需求、CoWoS 先进封装及 2 奈米制程量产前景仍高度乐观，也意味此次股价修正较偏向评价面与筹码面的调整，而非基本面出现反转。

(2317-TW) 鸿海，下跌 3.51%，收在 234 元，第二季营收达 2.51 兆元，季增 19%、年增 40%，创历年同期新高，优于市场预期，显示 AI 伺服器与高附加价值产品持续推升营运动能，法人认为，虽然辉达 Kyber 平台传出延后至 2028 年推出，但不影响 AI 伺服器长期需求展望，另一方面，下半年折叠 iPhone 量产进度、出货规模及初期毛利率，将成为影响获利的重要关键，仍看好 AI 基础建设需求持续成长，预估 2026、2027 年每股盈余将优于市场共识 ；

(2454-TW) 联发科，下跌 8.92%，收在 3370 元，6 月营收达 580 亿元，月增 22%、年增 3%，带动第二季营收达 1,520 亿元，季增 2%，优于公司财测及市场预期，主要受惠 AI ASIC 晶片提前放量，推升营收表现优于预估，展望后市，预期第三季营收可望季增约 10%，AI ASIC 仍是主要成长动能，不过，随市场已提前反映 AI 题材，股价评价偏高，联发科第二季获利仍有上修空间，但后续仍须观察 AI ASIC 实际出货速度与营收贡献，是否持续优于市场预期。

欢迎免费订阅
股市期皇后庄佳萤

https://lin.ee/9cyliMq

7/17

强势股分享

【上市 + 上柜量大上涨股】

(1526-TW) 日驰

(4133-TW) 亚诺法

(6598-TW)ABC-KY

(4178-TW) 糖联

(6243-TW) 迅杰

(5450-TW) 南良

(6811-TW) 宏碁资讯

(6517-TW) 保胜光学

(3491-TW) 升达科

(8383-TW) 千附

庄佳萤分析师:
每日分享盘势解析跟精选产业个股，让投资朋友轻松追踪 2025 年年台股操作方向，相关详细内容请加入 Line@索取，免费提供给您!

股市期皇后证期双分析师庄佳萤

LINE 官方帐号
LINE ID 搜寻: @win1788 (@不可省略)
或是点击下方网址加入
https://lin.ee/9cyliMq

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FB 粉丝团:【股市期皇后】

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文章来源: 摩尔投顾庄佳萤分析师

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亿元，其中，外资自营商连卖十一日，自营商连卖二日，投信则连买十八日共买超 1830.77 亿元。美股周四全面收黑，", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6538814/l/ccfd7f6d06864db70701ccd4e32eaf54.jpg", "content": "【台股大崩盘】台积电「利多出尽」？别逃！我只做这件事!\n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6538814/l/ccfd7f6d06864db70701ccd4e32eaf54.jpg\" alt=\"【量大强涨股整理】【台股大崩盘】台积电「利多出尽」？别逃！我只做这件事!\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n<div class=\"youtube-embed-wrapper\" style=\"position:relative;padding-bottom:56.25%;padding-top:30px;height:0;overflow:hidden;\"><iframe allowfullscreen=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"360\" src=\"//www.youtube.com/embed/WBof3WGpS6k\" style=\"position: absolute;top: 0;left: 0;width: 100%;height: 100%;\" width=\"640\"></iframe></div>\n\n影片中分享给你知道 \n（按赞订阅打开小铃铛） \n再来看一下今天的台股!\n\n加权指数今日开低走低，终场下跌 2953.71 点，收在 42671.27，成交量 12129.57 亿。\n\n观察三大法人今天筹码动向，外资卖超 1890.38 亿元，投信买超 95.02 亿元，自营商卖超 821.79 亿元，三大法人合计卖超 2617.15 亿元，其中，外资自营商连卖十一日，自营商连卖二日，投信则连买十八日共买超 1830.77 亿元。\n\n美股周四全面收黑，市场避险情绪快速升温，费城半导体指数重挫 4.29%，标普 500 指数、道琼工业指数及那斯达克指数同步收低，其中 (NVDA-US) 辉达，(AMD-US) 超微，(AVGO-US) 博通，等 AI 与半导体权值股全面走弱，(TSM-US) 台积电 ADR，跌逾 2%，反映市场对 AI 资本支出持续攀升、美伊冲突升温，以及资金获利了结的担忧。\n\n受到国际股市疲弱影响，为今日台股增添沉重卖压，加权指数今日开低走低，电子权值股全面承压，终场下跌 2953.71 点，收在 42671.27，成交量 12129.57 亿，(2330-TW) 台积电，(2317-TW) 鸿海，(2454-TW) 联发科，等大型权值股成为主要杀盘重心，不过金融股相对抗跌，包括 (2882-TW) 国泰金，(2881-TW) 富邦金，及 (2891-TW) 中信金，跌幅均明显低于电子股，显示市场资金开始转向高殖利率及防御型族群，降低整体盘势跌幅扩大的速度。\n\n整体而言，从台湾企业营运表现来看，基本面同样维持强劲，上市柜公司 6 月营收达 5.65 兆元，第二季营收 16.12 兆元，上半年累计营收 29.98 兆元，三项数据同步改写历史新高，上半年营收年增逾三成，显示 AI、高速运算、网通、伺服器及电子零组件需求持续推升企业营收成长，也为台股提供坚实支撑，目前市场最大的变数仍在于地缘政治风险、美国联准会后续利率政策，以及短线筹码快速调节所带来的波动，但若观察 AI 产业链发展，无论是云端服务供应商持续扩建资料中心，或是 AI 伺服器、高速传输、先进封装及高阶晶片需求，整体成长趋势并未改变，因此此次修正较像是涨多后的健康整理，而非景气循环反转。\n\n展望后市，只要 (2330-TW) 台积电，股价逐步止稳，加上企业第二季财报陆续公布、营收与获利持续优于市场预期，台股仍有机会重新回归基本面主导行情，操作策略上，建议投资人避免追高杀低，可利用盘势震荡分批布局，持续关注 AI 供应链、AI 伺服器、高速运算、高阶半导体、营收创高，以及下半年旺季受惠族群，待市场恐慌情绪逐步消化后，指数仍有机会重返偏多格局。\n\n权值股方面，(2330-TW) 台积电，下跌 7.29%，收在 2290 元，法说会再度释出优于市场预期的展望，不仅将 2026 年美元营收成长预估由 30% 以上调升至略高于 40%，更同步上修全年资本支出至 600 亿至 640 亿美元，创下历史新高，第二季毛利率达 67.7%，优于市场预估，每股盈余 27.25 元同创新高，显示 AI 伺服器、高效能运算 HPC 及先进制程需求依然强劲，并未因短线市场震荡而出现降温迹象，也代表全球 AI 投资趋势仍持续深化，此外外资法人同步提高评价，麦格理证券将台积电目标价一举调升至 4,200 元，刷新市场最高目标价纪录，反映法人对未来数年 AI 晶片需求、CoWoS 先进封装及 2 奈米制程量产前景仍高度乐观，也意味此次股价修正较偏向评价面与筹码面的调整，而非基本面出现反转。\n\n(2317-TW) 鸿海，下跌 3.51%，收在 234 元，第二季营收达 2.51 兆元，季增 19%、年增 40%，创历年同期新高，优于市场预期，显示 AI 伺服器与高附加价值产品持续推升营运动能，法人认为，虽然辉达 Kyber 平台传出延后至 2028 年推出，但不影响 AI 伺服器长期需求展望，另一方面，下半年折叠 iPhone 量产进度、出货规模及初期毛利率，将成为影响获利的重要关键，仍看好 AI 基础建设需求持续成长，预估 2026、2027 年每股盈余将优于市场共识 ；\n\n(2454-TW) 联发科，下跌 8.92%，收在 3370 元，6 月营收达 580 亿元，月增 22%、年增 3%，带动第二季营收达 1,520 亿元，季增 2%，优于公司财测及市场预期，主要受惠 AI ASIC 晶片提前放量，推升营收表现优于预估，展望后市，预期第三季营收可望季增约 10%，AI ASIC 仍是主要成长动能，不过，随市场已提前反映 AI 题材，股价评价偏高，联发科第二季获利仍有上修空间，但后续仍须观察 AI ASIC 实际出货速度与营收贡献，是否持续优于市场预期。 \n\n欢迎免费订阅 \n股市期皇后庄佳萤\n\n<a href=\"https://lin.ee/9cyliMq\">https://lin.ee/9cyliMq</a>\n\n7/17\n\n强势股分享\n\n【上市 + 上柜量大上涨股】\n\n(1526-TW) 日驰\n\n(4133-TW) 亚诺法\n\n(6598-TW)ABC-KY\n\n(4178-TW) 糖联\n\n(6243-TW) 迅杰\n\n(5450-TW) 南良\n\n(6811-TW) 宏碁资讯\n\n(6517-TW) 保胜光学\n\n(3491-TW) 升达科\n\n(8383-TW) 千附\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"500\" data-mime=\"image/png\" data-ratio=\"1.108\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6538814/m/40e985d11e9c37e8ae8f5b0d682c2d5a.jpg\" data-width=\"554\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6538814/l/40e985d11e9c37e8ae8f5b0d682c2d5a.jpg\"></figure>\n\n庄佳萤分析师: \n每日分享盘势解析跟精选产业个股，让投资朋友轻松追踪 2025 年年台股操作方向，相关详细内容请加入 Line@索取，免费提供给您!\n\n股市期皇后证期双分析师庄佳萤\n\nLINE 官方帐号 \nLINE ID 搜寻: @win1788 (@不可省略) \n或是点击下方网址加入 \n<a href=\"https://lin.ee/9cyliMq\">https://lin.ee/9cyliMq</a>\n\nYoutube 影音频道精彩解盘影片不容错过! \n(记得按赞，订阅并打开小铃铛)\n\n<div class=\"youtube-embed-wrapper\" style=\"position:relative;padding-bottom:56.25%;padding-top:30px;height:0;overflow:hidden;\"><iframe allowfullscreen=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"360\" src=\"//www.youtube.com/embed/lnLmKx3dlUo\" style=\"position: absolute;top: 0;left: 0;width: 100%;height: 100%;\" width=\"640\"></iframe></div>\n\nFB 粉丝团:【股市期皇后】\n\n<a href=\"https://goo.gl/kN2VKT\">https://goo.gl/kN2VKT</a>\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"361\" data-mime=\"image/png\" data-ratio=\"1.4155124653739612\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6538814/m/eb396824a6cbab3f823d63ebaf5c221f.jpg\" data-width=\"511\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6538814/l/eb396824a6cbab3f823d63ebaf5c221f.jpg\"></figure>\n\n文章来源: 摩尔投顾庄佳萤分析师\n\n \n本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券 \n无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利 \n投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-5226.html\" title=\"营收速报 - 乙盛-KY(5243)6月营收11.62亿元年增率高达38.27％\">营收速报 - 乙盛-KY(5243)6月营收11.62亿元年增率高达38.27％</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-7317.html\" title=\"健保规模年增6.5%首破兆！卓揆：下半年拨30亿调高「急重难罕儿产」各科给付\">健保规模年增6.5%首破兆！卓揆：下半年拨30亿调高「急重难罕儿产」各科给付</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-12330.html\" title=\"台股表面撑住、内部却在换股！下一棒是谁？\">台股表面撑住、内部却在换股！下一棒是谁？</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-9543.html\" 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