好股票遇到鬼故事、大立光、中美晶、群创

一、盘势重点与市场结构

好股票遇到鬼故事、大立光、中美晶、群创

指数重挫、情绪转弱

加权指数大跌 2953 点（-6.47%），收 45624 点
成交量放大至约 1.22 兆元，显示恐慌性卖压出笼
外资卖超 1890 亿元、自营商卖超 821 亿元，筹码明显松动

技术面转弱讯号

指数跌破季线，短线趋势转为修正格局
融资年增近 80%，远高于指数涨幅（约 60%）
→ 显示市场杠杆过高，引发去杠杆卖压连锁效应

二、本波下杀核心原因

利多钝化（台积电 (2330-TW) 效应失灵）

财报优于预期，但市场更关注：
- 毛利率下滑趋势（67.7% → 约 66%）
- AI 资本支出能否转化为获利

总体风险升温

美伊冲突升高 → 油价上涨 → 压抑风险资产
市场避险情绪升温，资金撤出高估值科技股

筹码面压力

外资持续调节
融资过热 → 一有利空即触发多杀多

三、短线走势研判

仍有下探风险

预估支撑区：40000～42000 点
在信心未恢复、外资未止卖前，仍偏弱震荡

关键观察指标

外资卖超是否收敛
成交量是否缩减（止跌讯号）
恐慌情绪（如 VIX）是否回落

四、中长线基本面仍强

AI 产业持续爆发

AI 伺服器、ASIC、先进制程需求强劲
技术演进进入「Agentic AI（代理式 AI）」新阶段

企业营收全面成长

6 月营收：年增 46.62%
Q2 营收：年增 38.9%
上半年营收：年增 31.55%（创新高）
34 大类股中 25 类双位数成长

出口与经济动能强劲

出口连 32 红（748 亿美元）
AI 资本支出带动全球需求循环

五、资金结构转变（关键优势）

内资主导市场

ETF 规模达 7.2 兆（今年增加逾 3 兆）
内资总规模近 8 兆

结构性改变

过去：外资主导
现在：ETF＋内资成为主导力量

实证数据

外资连年卖超，但台股仍持续上涨
→ 显示内资承接能力强

六、台积电后市解读

短空长多格局

短期：毛利率下滑造成市场疑虑
长期：
- 2 奈米放量（成长前期成本）
- 资本支出上修至 600～640 亿美元

结论
→ 属于「成长投资期」，非基本面转弱

七、选股与操作策略

避开族群

高融资中小型投机股
高估值且破线转弱个股

聚焦方向

AI 权值股（具基本面支撑）
中大型流动性佳个股
下半年业绩转强股

产业主轴

ASIC / AI 伺服器
先进制程 / CoWoS / CPO 矽光子
记忆体 / ABF 载板 / PCB 材料
半导体设备 / 自动化

操作原则

低接不追高
分批布局
严控资金与风险

八、转折时点研判

最快：下周出现技术性反弹
较稳：7 月底～8 月初筑底完成
→ 属于「中期回档后再攻」格局

九、投资心法（关键）

价值投资核心

价格下跌 ≠ 基本面变差
恐慌时往往出现错杀机会

逆势操作原则

别人恐惧 → 分批布局
别人贪婪 → 控制风险

资金配置

保留现金弹性
等待明确转折再加码

十、总结

短线：恐慌杀盘＋去杠杆 → 仍有震荡
中线：AI 基本面强劲未变
长线：资金结构转变支撑多头

结论一句话：
本波为「高档修正＋筹码清洗」，非空头起点；真正关键在于「选股与节奏」，回档反而是中长线布局良机。

这一波急杀

不是风险

是老天爷给你的礼物

问题是你接得住吗？

现在这种盘最该做的不是观望

而是积极整理持股 + 换股操作

现阶段操作重点

不追高热门股

留意外资卖超的短线震荡

锁定下半年获利成长转机股

拉回不是风险而是布局机会

市场短线会因消息面波动

但中长线仍将回归基本面

若想找一位真的懂筹码的带你操作

大师兄就是最佳人选

可以带你吃到一整段的行情

让你赚完一档再换一档

认同我操作、想低接主流飙股的朋友

台股剧本我都写好了也一一验证

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文章来源：伦元投顾陈学进分析师

本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券
无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利
投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险

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"TMGM最新开户教程（2026年最新版图文）", "img": "/public/uploads/default/image/2026/06/29/1782715943388_zs5od3.png", "path": "/whjy" }, { "id": 1255, "title": "外汇投资为什么最近这么火？", "img": "/public/uploads/default/image/2026/05/29/1780041003435_vacv28.jpg", "path": "/whhq" } ], "cate": { "id": 27, "pid": 15, "name": "台股", "pinyin": "tw", "path": "/new/tw", "orderBy": 0, "target": "0", "status": "0", "listView": "list.html", "articleView": "article.html", "seoTitle": "", "seoKeywords": "", "seoDescription": "", "type": "0", "dataConfig": null, "level": 1 }, "article": { "id": 7184, "cid": 27, "subCid": null, "title": "好股票遇到鬼故事、大立光、中美晶、群创", "shortTitle": "好股票遇到鬼故事、大立光、中美晶、群创", "tagId": "", "attr": "", "articleView": null, "source": null, "author": "钜亨网", "description": "一、盘势重点与市场结构指数重挫、情绪转弱加权指数大跌 2953 点（-6.47%），收 45624 点成交量放大至约 1.22 兆元，显示恐慌性卖压出笼外资卖超 1890 亿元、自营商卖超 821 亿元，筹码明显松动技术面转弱讯号指数跌破季线，短线趋势转为修正格局融资年增近 80%，远高于指数涨幅（约 60%） → 显示市场杠杆过高，引发去杠杆卖压连锁效应二、本波下杀核心原因利多钝化（台积电 (2330-TW) 效应失灵）财报优于预期，但市场更关注：毛利率下滑趋势", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6538818/l/b80c511b3822275ddb782b60062caa98.jpg", "content": "一、盘势重点与市场结构\n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6538818/l/b80c511b3822275ddb782b60062caa98.jpg\" alt=\"好股票遇到鬼故事、大立光、中美晶、群创\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n<ol>\n<li>指数重挫、情绪转弱</li>\n</ol>\n\n<ul>\n<li>加权指数大跌 2953 点（-6.47%），收 45624 点</li>\n<li>成交量放大至约 1.22 兆元，显示恐慌性卖压出笼</li>\n<li>外资卖超 1890 亿元、自营商卖超 821 亿元，筹码明显松动</li>\n</ul>\n\n<ol>\n<li>技术面转弱讯号</li>\n</ol>\n\n<ul>\n<li>指数跌破季线，短线趋势转为修正格局</li>\n<li>融资年增近 80%，远高于指数涨幅（约 60%） \n→ 显示市场杠杆过高，引发去杠杆卖压连锁效应</li>\n</ul>\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n二、本波下杀核心原因\n\n<ol>\n<li>利多钝化（台积电 (2330-TW) 效应失灵）</li>\n</ol>\n\n<ul>\n<li>财报优于预期，但市场更关注：\n<ul>\n<li>毛利率下滑趋势（67.7% → 约 66%）</li>\n<li>AI 资本支出能否转化为获利</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n</ul>\n\n<ol>\n<li>总体风险升温</li>\n</ol>\n\n<ul>\n<li>美伊冲突升高 → 油价上涨 → 压抑风险资产</li>\n<li>市场避险情绪升温，资金撤出高估值科技股</li>\n</ul>\n\n<ol>\n<li>筹码面压力</li>\n</ol>\n\n<ul>\n<li>外资持续调节</li>\n<li>融资过热 → 一有利空即触发多杀多</li>\n</ul>\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n三、短线走势研判\n\n<ol>\n<li>仍有下探风险</li>\n</ol>\n\n<ul>\n<li>预估支撑区：40000～42000 点</li>\n<li>在信心未恢复、外资未止卖前，仍偏弱震荡</li>\n</ul>\n\n<ol>\n<li>关键观察指标</li>\n</ol>\n\n<ul>\n<li>外资卖超是否收敛</li>\n<li>成交量是否缩减（止跌讯号）</li>\n<li>恐慌情绪（如 VIX）是否回落</li>\n</ul>\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n四、中长线基本面仍强\n\n<ol>\n<li>AI 产业持续爆发</li>\n</ol>\n\n<ul>\n<li> AI 伺服器、ASIC、先进制程需求强劲</li>\n<li>技术演进进入「Agentic AI（代理式 AI）」新阶段</li>\n</ul>\n\n<ol>\n<li>企业营收全面成长</li>\n</ol>\n\n<ul>\n<li> 6 月营收：年增 46.62%</li>\n<li>Q2 营收：年增 38.9%</li>\n<li> 上半年营收：年增 31.55%（创新高）</li>\n<li>34 大类股中 25 类双位数成长</li>\n</ul>\n\n<ol>\n<li>出口与经济动能强劲</li>\n</ol>\n\n<ul>\n<li>出口连 32 红（748 亿美元）</li>\n<li>AI 资本支出带动全球需求循环</li>\n</ul>\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n五、资金结构转变（关键优势）\n\n<ol>\n<li>内资主导市场</li>\n</ol>\n\n<ul>\n<li> ETF 规模达 7.2 兆（今年增加逾 3 兆）</li>\n<li>内资总规模近 8 兆</li>\n</ul>\n\n<ol>\n<li>结构性改变</li>\n</ol>\n\n<ul>\n<li>过去：外资主导</li>\n<li>现在：ETF＋内资成为主导力量</li>\n</ul>\n\n<ol>\n<li>实证数据</li>\n</ol>\n\n<ul>\n<li>外资连年卖超，但台股仍持续上涨 \n→ 显示内资承接能力强</li>\n</ul>\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n六、台积电后市解读\n\n<ol>\n<li>短空长多格局</li>\n</ol>\n\n<ul>\n<li>短期：毛利率下滑造成市场疑虑</li>\n<li>长期：\n<ul>\n<li>2 奈米放量（成长前期成本）</li>\n<li>资本支出上修至 600～640 亿美元</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n</ul>\n\n<ol>\n<li>结论 \n→ 属于「成长投资期」，非基本面转弱</li>\n</ol>\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n七、选股与操作策略\n\n<ol>\n<li>避开族群</li>\n</ol>\n\n<ul>\n<li>高融资中小型投机股</li>\n<li>高估值且破线转弱个股</li>\n</ul>\n\n<ol>\n<li>聚焦方向</li>\n</ol>\n\n<ul>\n<li> AI 权值股（具基本面支撑）</li>\n<li>中大型流动性佳个股</li>\n<li>下半年业绩转强股</li>\n</ul>\n\n<ol>\n<li>产业主轴</li>\n</ol>\n\n<ul>\n<li> ASIC / AI 伺服器</li>\n<li>先进制程 / CoWoS / CPO 矽光子</li>\n<li>记忆体 / ABF 载板 / PCB 材料</li>\n<li>半导体设备 / 自动化</li>\n</ul>\n\n<ol>\n<li>操作原则</li>\n</ol>\n\n<ul>\n<li>低接不追高</li>\n<li>分批布局</li>\n<li>严控资金与风险</li>\n</ul>\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n八、转折时点研判\n\n<ul>\n<li>最快：下周出现技术性反弹</li>\n<li>较稳：7 月底～8 月初筑底完成 \n→ 属于「中期回档后再攻」格局</li>\n</ul>\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n九、投资心法（关键）\n\n<ol>\n<li>价值投资核心</li>\n</ol>\n\n<ul>\n<li>价格下跌 ≠ 基本面变差</li>\n<li>恐慌时往往出现错杀机会</li>\n</ul>\n\n<ol>\n<li>逆势操作原则</li>\n</ol>\n\n<ul>\n<li>别人恐惧 → 分批布局</li>\n<li>别人贪婪 → 控制风险</li>\n</ul>\n\n<ol>\n<li>资金配置</li>\n</ol>\n\n<ul>\n<li>保留现金弹性</li>\n<li>等待明确转折再加码</li>\n</ul>\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n十、总结\n\n<ul>\n<li>短线：恐慌杀盘＋去杠杆 → 仍有震荡</li>\n<li>中线：AI 基本面强劲未变</li>\n<li>长线：资金结构转变支撑多头</li>\n</ul>\n\n结论一句话： \n本波为「高档修正＋筹码清洗」，非空头起点；真正关键在于「选股与节奏」，回档反而是中长线布局良机。\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n这一波急杀\n\n不是风险\n\n是老天爷给你的礼物\n\n问题是你接得住吗？\n\n现在这种盘最该做的不是观望\n\n而是积极整理持股 + 换股操作\n\n现阶段操作重点\n\n不追高热门股\n\n留意外资卖超的短线震荡\n\n锁定下半年获利成长转机股\n\n拉回不是风险而是布局机会\n\n市场短线会因消息面波动\n\n但中长线仍将回归基本面\n\n若想找一位真的懂筹码的带你操作\n\n大师兄就是最佳人选\n\n可以带你吃到一整段的行情\n\n让你赚完一档再换一档\n\n认同我操作、想低接主流飙股的朋友\n\n台股剧本我都写好了也一一验证\n\n别再眼睁睁看着别人大赚\n\n现在就跟上赢家的脚步\n\n<a href=\"https://forms.gle/VVv3R7F1vyHNj6mJ8\">https://forms.gle/VVv3R7F1vyHNj6mJ8</a>\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"270\" data-mime=\"image/jpeg\" data-ratio=\"1.5592592592592593\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6538818/m/522d41e773e788eda79e00dae45c204d.jpg\" data-width=\"421\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6538818/m/522d41e773e788eda79e00dae45c204d.jpg\"></figure>\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"283\" data-mime=\"image/jpeg\" data-ratio=\"1.5159010600706713\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6538818/m/7b86d93140cc9a322bac4470c685baa2.jpg\" data-width=\"429\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6538818/m/7b86d93140cc9a322bac4470c685baa2.jpg\"></figure>\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"282\" data-mime=\"image/jpeg\" data-ratio=\"1.5212765957446808\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6538818/m/94b8052bb55903f709adcdc20c223140.jpg\" data-width=\"429\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6538818/m/94b8052bb55903f709adcdc20c223140.jpg\"></figure>\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"296\" data-mime=\"image/jpeg\" data-ratio=\"1.4493243243243243\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6538818/m/f86547be726276c0d643c3dc46d4fcac.jpg\" data-width=\"429\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6538818/m/f86547be726276c0d643c3dc46d4fcac.jpg\"></figure>\n\n<div class=\"youtube-embed-wrapper\" style=\"position:relative;padding-bottom:56.25%;padding-top:30px;height:0;overflow:hidden;\"><iframe allowfullscreen=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"360\" src=\"//www.youtube.com/embed/p9M1a5LjSEQ\" style=\"position: absolute;top: 0;left: 0;width: 100%;height: 100%;\" width=\"640\"></iframe></div>\n\n工商时报绩效竞赛 13 冠王、卓越绩效傲视同业、专业实力有目共赌！\n\n更多第一手讯息、以及飙股机会→请加入大师兄飙股鑫天地的大家族\n\nLINE@连结网址：<a href=\"https://line.me/R/ti/p/@gold99\">https://line.me/R/ti/p/%40gold99</a>\n\nTelegram 连结网址：<a href=\"https://t.me/gold0999\">https://t.me/gold0999</a>\n\nYT 个人专属频道：<a href=\"mailto:youtube.com/@master55688\">youtube.com/@master55688</a>\n\n举手之劳\n\n记得！按赞、订阅、分享、开启小铃铛\n\n让更多人可以看见我们的影片\n\n咨询专线 02-2321-9933(24 小时专人服务)\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"541\" data-mime=\"image/jpeg\" data-ratio=\"1.4048059149722736\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6538818/m/89868d382a444ece2c8d8b12551f45b6.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6538818/l/89868d382a444ece2c8d8b12551f45b6.jpg\"></figure>\n\n文章来源：伦元投顾陈学进分析师\n\n本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券 \n无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利 \n投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-10686.html\" title=\"〈房产〉高雄市预售屋两极化发展单价50万以上增10% 2字头成交不到1成\">〈房产〉高雄市预售屋两极化发展单价50万以上增10% 2字头成交不到1成</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-7111.html\" title=\"盘中速报 - 集中市场加权指数下跌-2383.58点至43241.4点，跌幅5.22%\">盘中速报 - 集中市场加权指数下跌-2383.58点至43241.4点，跌幅5.22%</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-12141.html\" title=\"〈焦点股〉保护元件族群走强聚鼎锁涨停兴勤、富致同步上涨\">〈焦点股〉保护元件族群走强聚鼎锁涨停兴勤、富致同步上涨</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-541.html\" title=\"〈焦点股〉巧新半导体样品测试中乐看今明年营运爆发涨停锁住\">〈焦点股〉巧新半导体样品测试中乐看今明年营运爆发涨停锁住</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-5752.html\" 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