扩散需要时间，公债→公司债与房贷→濒临财报法说影响股市

利率飙升对实体经济的首波传导路径

本周债市持续遭到调节卖压冲击，自过去1个月短债快速上升，利差收窄，本周利差开始回升，不过当然是长债利率走扬的方式，呈现利空轮番轰炸，如下图，2年期公债、30年期公债今年走势

而公债殖利率走高，也确实影响到公司债，直观而言，基底利率的推升是主因，同时不断扩大的AI融资需求，资金紧缺的短期加剧，投等级公司债利差也在本周同步扩大，如下图

不过还没有突破3~4月波段高点，当时是CSP厂商也开始宣告密集发债的区间段，因此目前的美股，大家看到的是距离新高并不远，主要是发债的大型AI科技公司还没有受到估值惩罚，实际上那些公司的投等公司债也早已在9月迎来连续下跌的破底多杀多，公债殖利率领头，逐步扩散是渐进式的。

因此公债殖利率走升，到底利空扩散的顺序如何，当然是从借钱或举债的人，尤其是长天期的相关债权人最先受到影响!实体经济中，长天期的融资，集中在

1. 民众的房贷，指标性的房地美30年期房贷利率如下图，在近期突破7%，一度在9/31来到最高7.5%，是2023年以来的新高水平。美国房市的新增房贷件数连续4周下滑，8 月成屋销售已经是14个月新低，9月恐怕缴出更为惨澹的数据。

这主要影响到美国内需产业，房地产低迷影响到原物料、人力资源，主要体现到的是消费递延放缓，这点是台股较不敏感的，不过10月下旬即将迎来财报季，这些利空言辞很可能出现在隔日的台股新闻之中，只要没有触发「房价明显下跌」与「企业破产」，这类利空言论大多属于是短期冲击，届时可逢低承接看待。

2. 今年大量涌现的长天期的AI公司公司债融资需求，这点对台股影响就明显连动且较快了。因为AI融资为的就是建构AI资料中心，CSP、AI Neocloud的CDS全数创新高，公司债评价已经先冲击，如下图投等级7月、9月陆续出现破线多杀多，相关公司的股价落后反应产生跳空下跌是台股最不乐见的，本轮财报季，相关融资与利息成本的法人提问，必然是重中之重!

财报季开端，恐怕是股市波及的第一枪

仅靠少数大型科技股撑盘，S&P500与等权重S&P500 ETF的乖离愈来愈大，市值大的科技公司，容易以一己之力拉动指数，但若聚焦属于数人头的类腾落指标，包含站上50MA家数比，短短1个半月从70%滑落至20%，其他指标基本上都在9月中箭落马，若将视角移往中小型股为主的罗素2000，或非市值加权且科技股比重不高的道琼指数，也都是类似的9月连跌破线剧本。

因此10/13、14按照惯例开启的财报季，由同样9月重创的银行股开启，叠加CPI、PPI公布，建议台股投资人在10号以前把握营收公布行情，尚能自力走扬而非外部利空干扰时，积极把握机会!

（撰文者：永诚资产管理处分析师范振峰）

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null, "author": "网络", "description": "公债殖利率走升扩大公司债利差，AI融资需求增加也加剧短期资金紧缺。
美国30年期房贷利率突破7%，9/31一度达7.5%，房市新增房贷件数连4周下滑。
10/13、14财报季将开启，S&P500乖离扩大，台股宜把握10号前营收行情。", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6620478/l/0f80cf079654bb431660369628469905.jpg", "content": "利率飙升对实体经济的首波传导路径 \n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6620478/l/0f80cf079654bb431660369628469905.jpg\" alt=\"扩散需要时间，公债→公司债与房贷→濒临财报法说影响股市\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n本周债市持续遭到调节卖压冲击，自过去1个月短债快速上升，利差收窄，本周利差开始回升，不过当然是长债利率走扬的方式，呈现利空轮番轰炸，如下图，2年期公债、30年期公债今年走势\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"322\" data-mime=\"image/png\" data-ratio=\"2.360248447204969\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6620478/m/5c32955c84ca68beba4160c5e138e3d2.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6620478/l/5c32955c84ca68beba4160c5e138e3d2.jpg\" srcset=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6620478/l/5c32955c84ca68beba4160c5e138e3d2.jpg 1x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6620478/xl/5c32955c84ca68beba4160c5e138e3d2.jpg 2x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6620478/xl/5c32955c84ca68beba4160c5e138e3d2.jpg 3x\"></figure>\n\n而公债殖利率走高，也确实影响到公司债，直观而言，基底利率的推升是主因，同时不断扩大的AI融资需求，资金紧缺的短期加剧，投等级公司债利差也在本周同步扩大，如下图\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"278\" data-mime=\"image/png\" data-ratio=\"2.7338129496402876\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6620478/m/f43b9d946f86e9fbd8fe30386ddab66d.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6620478/l/f43b9d946f86e9fbd8fe30386ddab66d.jpg\" srcset=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6620478/l/f43b9d946f86e9fbd8fe30386ddab66d.jpg 1x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6620478/xl/f43b9d946f86e9fbd8fe30386ddab66d.jpg 2x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6620478/xl/f43b9d946f86e9fbd8fe30386ddab66d.jpg 3x\"></figure>\n\n不过还没有突破3~4月波段高点，当时是CSP厂商也开始宣告密集发债的区间段，因此目前的美股，大家看到的是距离新高并不远，主要是发债的大型AI科技公司还没有受到估值惩罚，实际上那些公司的投等公司债也早已在9月迎来连续下跌的破底多杀多，公债殖利率领头，逐步扩散是渐进式的。\n\n因此公债殖利率走升，到底利空扩散的顺序如何，当然是从借钱或举债的人，尤其是长天期的相关债权人最先受到影响!实体经济中，长天期的融资，集中在\n\n1. 民众的房贷，指标性的房地美30年期房贷利率如下图，在近期突破7%，一度在9/31来到最高7.5%，是2023年以来的新高水平。美国房市的新增房贷件数连续4周下滑，8 月成屋销售已经是14个月新低，9月恐怕缴出更为惨澹的数据。\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"313\" data-mime=\"image/png\" data-ratio=\"2.428115015974441\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6620478/m/610885c502900b39af0f4afbd86aa354.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6620478/l/610885c502900b39af0f4afbd86aa354.jpg\" srcset=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6620478/l/610885c502900b39af0f4afbd86aa354.jpg 1x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6620478/xl/610885c502900b39af0f4afbd86aa354.jpg 2x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6620478/xl/610885c502900b39af0f4afbd86aa354.jpg 3x\"></figure>\n\n这主要影响到美国内需产业，房地产低迷影响到原物料、人力资源，主要体现到的是消费递延放缓，这点是台股较不敏感的，不过10月下旬即将迎来财报季，这些利空言辞很可能出现在隔日的台股新闻之中，只要没有触发「房价明显下跌」与「企业破产」，这类利空言论大多属于是短期冲击，届时可逢低承接看待。\n\n2. 今年大量涌现的长天期的AI公司公司债融资需求，这点对台股影响就明显连动且较快了。因为AI融资为的就是建构AI资料中心，CSP、AI Neocloud的CDS全数创新高，公司债评价已经先冲击，如下图投等级7月、9月陆续出现破线多杀多，相关公司的股价落后反应产生跳空下跌是台股最不乐见的，本轮财报季，相关融资与利息成本的法人提问，必然是重中之重!\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"436\" data-mime=\"image/png\" data-ratio=\"1.7431192660550459\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6620478/m/62d07281ce4f0b9a756ce5fb52b2262c.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6620478/l/62d07281ce4f0b9a756ce5fb52b2262c.jpg\" srcset=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6620478/l/62d07281ce4f0b9a756ce5fb52b2262c.jpg 1x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6620478/xl/62d07281ce4f0b9a756ce5fb52b2262c.jpg 2x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6620478/xxl/62d07281ce4f0b9a756ce5fb52b2262c.jpg 3x\"></figure>\n\n财报季开端，恐怕是股市波及的第一枪\n\n仅靠少数大型科技股撑盘，S&P500与等权重S&P500 ETF的乖离愈来愈大，市值大的科技公司，容易以一己之力拉动指数，但若聚焦属于数人头的类腾落指标，包含站上50MA家数比，短短1个半月从70%滑落至20%，其他指标基本上都在9月中箭落马，若将视角移往中小型股为主的罗素2000，或非市值加权且科技股比重不高的道琼指数，也都是类似的9月连跌破线剧本。\n\n因此10/13、14按照惯例开启的财报季，由同样9月重创的银行股开启，叠加CPI、PPI公布，建议台股投资人在10号以前把握营收公布行情，尚能自力走扬而非外部利空干扰时，积极把握机会!\n\n（撰文者：永诚资产管理处分析师范振峰）\n\n点击下图【60 秒测试你的理财天赋有几分？】\n\n<figure><a href=\"https://quiz.big-econ.com/index.php?&QID=6\"><img data-height=\"190\" data-mime=\"image/png\" data-ratio=\"4\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6620478/m/47db62ff09af1ad07bebd036db82b29c.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6620478/l/47db62ff09af1ad07bebd036db82b29c.jpg\" srcset=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6620478/l/47db62ff09af1ad07bebd036db82b29c.jpg 1x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6620478/xl/47db62ff09af1ad07bebd036db82b29c.jpg 2x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6620478/xxl/47db62ff09af1ad07bebd036db82b29c.jpg 3x\"></a></figure>\n\n「永诚资产管理处」是全台合法拥有金管字号的证券投资顾问公司中「唯一首创资产管理的部门」，20 年深耕专营台湾各大科技园区，以认真、诚信思维提供客户服务，让努力累积财富的你，也可贴身感受理财管家的 VIP 价值。\n\n没有代理金融商品，不以商品销售出发，减少你的财务漏洞！从资产配置出发，透过「专案客制化」、「服务精致化」、「获利系统化」，你不需牺牲时间体力，就能感受到资产提升！\n\n「卓越投资研究团队」加「顶尖财务顾问团队」共同与客户缔造里程碑\n\n立即加入 <a href=\"https://line.me/R/ti/p/%40asset88598\">https://line.me/R/ti/p/%40asset88598</a>\n\n进一步了解资产管理处 <a href=\"https://www.ycam.com.tw/\">https://www.ycam.com.tw/</a>\n\n收听「资产汇谈」Podcast <a href=\"https://reurl.cc/nYeRQ8\">https://reurl.cc/nYeRQ8</a>\n\n本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券 \n无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利 \n投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-10550.html\" title=\"〈电信三雄财报〉台湾大续坐获利王宝座今年前7月EPS 3.32元\">〈电信三雄财报〉台湾大续坐获利王宝座今年前7月EPS 3.32元</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-13581.html\" title=\"天虹先进制程实验室开幕台积电来助阵\">天虹先进制程实验室开幕台积电来助阵</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-9244.html\" title=\"〈热门股〉东典H1光通、低轨卫星需求强劲周涨9.33%、周K连2红\">〈热门股〉东典H1光通、低轨卫星需求强劲周涨9.33%、周K连2红</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-14185.html\" 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