美股科技股创网路泡沫后最惨跌幅！是山腰还是谷底？『价值浮现』台股选股策略！

从去杠杆，到债务担忧及民主党当选后的监管担忧，今年下半年国际科技股震荡非常激烈，上周那斯达克指数与费半指数皆跌破年线，这一波修正是来到山腰？还是在谷底？

摩根士丹利日前发布报告，这张图表显示了美国TMT（科技、媒体与电信）产业动能指标正遭遇历史级的剧烈修正，回撤幅度已逼近-65%，创下自2000-2001年网路泡沫以来最惨烈的崩跌纪录。

而前两次的回测低点，分别如下：
2008年金融海啸：当时动能回撤幅度约为-45%。
2022年美股科技股熊市：当时因联准会激进升息导致的回撤幅度约为-47%。

动能指标（Momentum Indicator）简单来说就是用来衡量一档股票或一个产业「涨有多快」或「跌有多凶」的指标。当动能创下历史新高时，指标数值就是0%（代表距离最高点的距离是 0，没有任何下跌）。换句话说，本次美国TMT产业已经遭遇历史等级的空头修正。

更多的投资策略与选股资讯都在－
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从上面数据来看，美股科技股本波修正幅度已大，尤其是费半指数更是出现历史级的空头市场修正，即使AI产业还属于高速成长的阶段，但市场已经提前反应未来成长趋缓的可能，民主党胜选之后，更进一步加速反应。但在这波修正之后，标普500指数科技股预期本益比仅17倍，既然已经反应可能的成长趋缓担忧，后续再跌的空间就相对有限。

台积电目前的预期本益比也才17-18倍，10月份的法说会公司对整个产业前景的看好趋势不变(实际上，国际大型科技产业Q3财报与财测，对AI前景依然非常看好)，先进制程与封装调涨价格，台积电产能供不应求，即使AI成长角度改变，影响相对较小，将是台股稳盘指标。

台股低点浮现，在本波修正之后，遍地是黄金。可以留意以下：AI伺服器推动先进封装与载板的需求、主要科技大厂AI ASIC持续上市、投信持续买超或由卖转买的AI绩优股。相关绩优股在下方，给投资朋友参考。

本次全球AI股的修正，全球投资朋友皆面临一次『熊市考验』，台股同样也是，股王信骅(5274-TW)从21800元，跌到11140元，接近腰斩。台达电(2308-TW)从2585元，跌到1020元，跌幅六成。即使绩优股也难逃这波修正大跌，但这却加速价值浮现，许多AI绩优股来到非常低档区，掌握台股未来行情，就是现在！不知如何进场吗？让我帮助你，加入我的行列，可先加入https://user225916.pse.is/money668并私讯【金融家】有最新优惠活动！

先进封装：台积电(2330-TW)、世界(5347-TW)、联电(2303-TW)、日月光(3711-TW)、京元电(2449-TW)、力成(6239-TW)、友达(2409-TW)

ASIC：创意(3443-TW)、联发科(2454-TW)

CCL：联茂(6213-TW)、台光电(2383-TW)、德宏(5475-TW)、南亚(1303-TW)、富乔(1815-TW)

AI绩优股：鸿海(2317-TW)、金像电(2368-TW)、华邦电(2344-TW)、南亚科(2408-TW)

更多产业趋势预告+盘中讯息→
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文章来源：摩尔投顾－叶俊敏分析师

本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险

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