4.49兆美元负债！AI股危机过了吗？精选四大AI受惠产业！

根据评论机构The Kobeissi Letter统计，Alphabet、Meta、Anthropic、微软、亚马逊、甲骨文和辉达等，已揭露的『表外负债』总计高达4.49兆美元。

其中，Alphabet的表外负债最高，高达1.08兆美元。其次是即将上市的Anthropic，其表外负债高达8650亿美元。这表外负债的意义是什么呢？对以上科技大厂来说，又代表甚么呢？这边给投资朋友说明一下。

『表内』（On-Balance Sheet列入资产负债表）是指已经发生、具体金额完全确立的负债（例如发行的公司债、银行贷款等）。

『表外』（Off-Balance Sheet未列入资产负债表），通常代表这些承诺是「根据未来某种条件或时间推移才会逐步实现的合约金额」，目前不符合直接计入资产负债表负债栏位的标准，但必须在『财报附注』中向投资人『强制揭露』。

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因此，『表外负债』是合约可能已经签署且不可撤销，但仍在建设中的设施尚未进入会计阶段。而上面科技巨头的『表外负债义务』绝大多数都是「不可撤销的长期采购承诺」或「不可撤销的未启用租赁合约」。

科技巨头在签署这些表外合约（特别是向晶片大厂订购AI 晶片，或向云端服务商预订资料中心算力、电力）时，合约里都会明文规定处罚机制：

Take-or-Pay条款（照付不议）：「不论你最后有没有用这么多，你都必须支付合约规定的最低消费金额」。

终止合约违约金（Termination Fees）：如果因业务调整想提前解约，必须支付合约规定的实质性终止费用，并且金额往往是合约剩余价值的很大一部分。

法律诉讼与信用破产：如果公司直接赖帐拒付，供应商会直接提起商业诉讼，强制要求履行合约或赔偿损失，这会引发严重的信用危机。

美国民主党胜选之后，或会通过监管限制AI，但AI产业链已经不可逆，毕竟AI已经成为全球竞争，美国依然必须掌握最先进技术的领先优势，因此，美国民主党不可能暂停或过度限制AI发展。并且，科技大厂为了应对高速成长的AI需求，及完成签订表外负债，AI基础建设必然持续。

昨日(11/10)文章『美股科技股创网路泡沫后最惨跌幅！是山腰还是谷底？『价值浮现』台股选股策略！』提到依照摩根士丹利的动能指标，美国TMT（科技、媒体与电信）产业，出现回撤幅度近-65%的崩跌。另外，费半指数今年高底点跌幅也高达38.5%。如此重大的跌幅，往往应该伴随着『实体经济衰退』，但实际上，美国经济并未衰退，因此，可视为因AI成长角度改变的本益比修正。

既然市场已经反应未来的预期，后市会如何表现呢？过去需要优于市场预期才能推动的上涨，但市场预期已经调降，并股价来到低基期，未来上涨的机率将会更高。

美国科技巨头将执行表外负债，台厂作为AI伺服器重要供应链必然受惠，下面提供相关AI受惠产业(ASIC、ABF、CCL、CPO等)，当然也不只是下面产业，如之前提到的先进封装，及其他硬体零组件的重要领导厂等，都值得投资朋友留意。

台股本波修正中，最高与最低点计算，跌幅达24%，投资朋友面对真正的『熊市考验』，但市场下跌价值浮现，许多AI绩优股来到非常低档区，掌握台股未来行情，就是现在！不知如何进场吗？让我帮助你，加入我的行列，可先加入https://user225916.pse.is/money668并私讯【金融家】有最新优惠活动！

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CCL：联茂(6213-TW)、台光电(2383-TW)、德宏(5475-TW)、南亚(1303-TW)、富乔(1815-TW)

CPO：联亚(3081-TW)、波若威(3163-TW)、众达-KY(4977-TW)、大立光(3008-TW)

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文章来源：摩尔投顾－叶俊敏分析师

本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险

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href=\"https://www.youtube.com/@money66868\">https://www.youtube.com/@money66868</a>\n\n因此，『表外负债』是合约可能已经签署且不可撤销，但仍在建设中的设施尚未进入会计阶段。而上面科技巨头的『表外负债义务』绝大多数都是「不可撤销的长期采购承诺」或「不可撤销的未启用租赁合约」。\n\n科技巨头在签署这些表外合约（特别是向晶片大厂订购AI 晶片，或向云端服务商预订资料中心算力、电力）时，合约里都会明文规定处罚机制：\n\nTake-or-Pay条款（照付不议）：「不论你最后有没有用这么多，你都必须支付合约规定的最低消费金额」。\n\n终止合约违约金（Termination Fees）：如果因业务调整想提前解约，必须支付合约规定的实质性终止费用，并且金额往往是合约剩余价值的很大一部分。\n\n法律诉讼与信用破产：如果公司直接赖帐拒付，供应商会直接提起商业诉讼，强制要求履行合约或赔偿损失，这会引发严重的信用危机。\n\n美国民主党胜选之后，或会通过监管限制AI，但AI产业链已经不可逆，毕竟AI已经成为全球竞争，美国依然必须掌握最先进技术的领先优势，因此，美国民主党不可能暂停或过度限制AI发展。并且，科技大厂为了应对高速成长的AI需求，及完成签订表外负债，AI基础建设必然持续。\n\n昨日(11/10)文章『美股科技股创网路泡沫后最惨跌幅！是山腰还是谷底？『价值浮现』台股选股策略！』提到依照摩根士丹利的动能指标，美国TMT（科技、媒体与电信）产业，出现回撤幅度近-65%的崩跌。另外，费半指数今年高底点跌幅也高达38.5%。如此重大的跌幅，往往应该伴随着『实体经济衰退』，但实际上，美国经济并未衰退，因此，可视为因AI成长角度改变的本益比修正。\n\n既然市场已经反应未来的预期，后市会如何表现呢？过去需要优于市场预期才能推动的上涨，但市场预期已经调降，并股价来到低基期，未来上涨的机率将会更高。\n\n美国科技巨头将执行表外负债，台厂作为AI伺服器重要供应链必然受惠，下面提供相关AI受惠产业(ASIC、ABF、CCL、CPO等)，当然也不只是下面产业，如之前提到的先进封装，及其他硬体零组件的重要领导厂等，都值得投资朋友留意。\n\n台股本波修正中，最高与最低点计算，跌幅达24%，投资朋友面对真正的『熊市考验』，但市场下跌价值浮现，许多AI绩优股来到非常低档区，掌握台股未来行情，就是现在！不知如何进场吗？让我帮助你，加入我的行列，可先加入<a href=\"https://user225916.pse.is/money668\">https://user225916.pse.is/money668</a>并私讯【金融家】有最新优惠活动！\n\nAI基础建设受惠产业：\n\nASIC：创意(3443-TW)、联发科(2454-TW)、爱普(6531-TW)\n\nABF：欣兴(3037-TW)、南电(8046-TW)、景硕(3189-TW)、臻鼎-KY(4958-TW)\n\nCCL：联茂(6213-TW)、台光电(2383-TW)、德宏(5475-TW)、南亚(1303-TW)、富乔(1815-TW)\n\nCPO：联亚(3081-TW)、波若威(3163-TW)、众达-KY(4977-TW)、大立光(3008-TW)\n\n更多产业趋势预告+盘中讯息→ \n都在叶老师的 Line @： \nLINE@ID：@money668 (@要记得加)\n\n<a href=\"https://user225916.pse.is/money668\">https://user225916.pse.is/money668</a> \n\n加入之后可以留言《巨亨网》让我知道你从哪里认识我的，有优惠活动或赠品会优先通知喔！\n\n文章来源：摩尔投顾－叶俊敏分析师\n\n本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-9271.html\" title=\"台股夜盘暴跌1077点本周会再破底!?\">台股夜盘暴跌1077点本周会再破底!?</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-14453.html\" title=\"荣成自结8月税前纯益5.2亿元转盈下半年供需改善获利可望优于上半年\">荣成自结8月税前纯益5.2亿元转盈下半年供需改善获利可望优于上半年</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-17751.html\" 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