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鸿海(2317) 四类产品展望齐上调!10 月营收 1.31 兆,2026 年第 4 季仅电脑终端季减

2026-11-13 03:30:11 网络 阅读(1)

鸿海 2026 年第 3 季法人说明会简报第 10 页-四类产品领域营收占比与季对季、年对年走势(云端网路 54%、消费智能 29%、电脑终端 12%、元件及其他 5%)

2026年11月13日(优分析/产业数据中心报导)⸺ 10 月营收 1.31 兆元、年增 45.7%、月增 12.7%,创今年单月新高;累计前 10 月 8.98 兆元、年增 40.4%。公司在法说会上同步上调 2026 年四大产品的全年展望,第 4 季则预期三类产品季增,仅电脑终端季减。

如下图,根据优分析产业资料库,10 月营收 1.31 兆元是图中最高的单月营收,年增率 45.7%,累计年增率 40.4% 是今年以来最高,图只到 2026 年 10 月。

鸿海月营收VS年增率YoY

(资料来源:优分析产业资料库)

云端网路是第 4 季最大的动能。新一代 AI 伺服器机柜开始出货,公司表示随着自动化程度提高,生产良率已达到很高的水准,新一代 AI 机柜的市占率也比上一代提升;公司预期第 4 季 AI 机柜出货量维持季对季高双位数,带动 AI 伺服器营收持续季增、通用伺服器温和成长,云端网路产品季对季显著成长、年对年强劲成长。

消费智能进入第 4 季出货高峰,产品需求良好,出货价格亦提高,季对季与年对年都预期强劲成长。元件及其他因主要业务相关零组件出货增加,季对季预期显著成长。

电脑终端是四类产品里唯一季对季预期略微衰退的一类。记忆体等供应紧张压抑出货量,部分零组件价格上涨又带动出货价格上扬,出货量减少与单价上升相互影响下,该类产品营收与去年同期相比仍预期显著成长。

记忆体紧俏也出现在外部报告。调研机构 TrendForce 9 月底估计,第 4 季一般型 DRAM 合约价将季增 10% 至 15%,2027 年 PC DRAM 供给还可能因产能转向伺服器而缩减,这是电脑终端出货被压抑的原因。

全年能见度优于 8 月

公司表示,「目前的能见度比 8 月份法说会的时候要来得更好」,今年全年营运几乎均高于先前预期,此一趋势预期延续到 2027 年。第 3 季云端网路产品占营收比重已升到 54%,是四类产品中占比最高的一类。

第 3 季 AI 机柜出货已达高双位数季增,第 4 季指引显示,这项成长速度可望延续。10 月单月 1.31 兆元已高于第 3 季的单月平均:第 3 季营收 3.02 兆元换算每月约 1.01 兆元。依这个基准,11 月与 12 月合计 1.71 兆元仅能与第 3 季持平,换算平均每月约 0.86 兆元,仍低于 10 月单月;第 4 季要优于第 3 季,这两个月合计营收须超过此一持平门槛。

第 4 季季增动能来自三类产品,电脑终端受记忆体供需影响而季减、与去年同期相比仍成长;全年展望则是在 8 月的基础上四类同步上调。

※ 本文经「优分析」授权转载,原文出处:原文连结
※ 免责声明:文中所提的个股、基金、期货商品内容仅供参考,并非投资建议,投资人应独立判断,审慎评估风险。

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