台积电CoPoS／FOPLP／玻璃基板大趋势解析、以及相关受惠族群重点分析

AI 封装大革命！台积电 CoPoS 商机与机会、以及相关受惠族群重点分享

注意：以下是合理性模型，不是价格保证，请务必搭配资金管理与停损策略

AI 晶片 → CoWoS → CoPoS → Glass Core Substrate（玻璃核心基板）

这是一条长达 5 年以上的产业升级主轴。

而台股即将迎来的，可能不是单一 CoWoS 行情，而是：

「先进封装设备股第二波大循环」。

一、为何 CoWoS 已经不够用了？

目前 AI 晶片尺寸快速放大：

AI 晶片
Blackwell B200
Rubin
Rubin Ultra
Google TPU v9x

未来封装尺寸：

Blackwell：约 3.3 倍光罩
Rubin：约 4 倍光罩
Rubin Ultra：约 9 倍光罩
TPU v9x：约 9.5 倍光罩

问题来了：

CoWoS 天花板快到了

CoWoS 本质：

Chip → Wafer → Substrate

使用圆形晶圆作为中介平台。

缺点：

材料浪费大
封装面积有限
良率控制困难
成本愈来愈高

尤其：

当封装尺寸超过 9 倍光罩后，

CoWoS 成本曲线开始恶化。

因此台积电 (2330-TW) 开始推：

CoPoS

Chip → Panel → Substrate

由圆变方。

二、CoPoS 最大的革命是什么？

答案：

面板化（Panelization）

从：

300mm Wafer

变成：

310×310
510×515
620×750

大型方形面板。

优势：

材料利用率

CoWoS

约 50~65%

CoPoS

可达 75~95%

直接提升：

良率
产能
成本竞争力

AI 晶片数量暴增

同样面积下：

12 吋晶圆

约 4 组 B200

改用大型面板：

可达 9~16 组

产能倍增。

三、台积电目前进度

市场共识：

时间	进度
2026	验证线
2027	试产
2028 下半年	量产
2029~2030	大规模扩产

TrendForce 与郭明?看法相近：

真正爆发时间点：

2028~2032

这将是下一轮先进封装黄金五年。

四、为何辛耘 (3583-TW)、万润 (6187-TW)、弘塑 (3131-TW) 突然爆红？

因为 CoPoS 设备验证采：

双线并行

第一队

国际设备商

TEL
SCREEN
ASM
Applied Materials

等。

优势：

量产经验
稳定度高

第二队

台湾设备商

辛耘 (3583-TW)
弘塑 (3131-TW)
万润 (6187-TW)

优势：

成本低
客制化快
在地支援快

而且：

台积电近年明显提高本土设备采购比例。

因此：

若验证成功，

台厂有机会直接吃下未来数千亿元资本支出商机。

五、设备股谁受惠最大？

第一梯队（直接受惠）

辛耘（3583-TW）

受惠：

湿制程设备
清洗设备
CoPoS 验证

法人认为：

最有机会取得 POR 资格。

★★★★★

弘塑（3131-TW）

受惠：

电镀
湿制程

CoWoS 已受惠。

CoPoS 有望延续。

★★★★★

万润（6187-TW）

受惠：

点胶
贴合
自动化封装

未来面板级封装产线需求增加。

★★★★★

第二梯队

均华（6640-TW）

先进封装设备

★★★★☆

志圣（2467-TW）

热制程设备

★★★★☆

均豪（5443-TW）

FOPLP 设备

★★★★☆

由田（3455-TW）

AOI 检测

★★★★☆

六、玻璃基板真正受惠者是谁？

市场最大的误解：

「玻璃取代 ABF」

其实错误。

郭明?已明确指出：

玻璃与 ABF 是共存。

不是取代。

结构：

ABF

↓

玻璃核心

↓

ABF

三明治架构

因此：

ABF 仍受惠

受惠股：

欣兴 (3037-TW)

★★★★★

南电 (8046-TW)

★★★★★

景硕 (3189-TW)

★★★★☆

七、面板厂将迎来第二春

最大黑马：

群创 (3481-TW)

原因：

本来就有：

大尺寸玻璃
面板搬送
面板曝光
面板对位

技术基础。

这些正是 CoPoS 与 Glass Core 最缺的能力。

此外：

友达 (2409-TW)

已投入 FOPLP。

未来也有机会受惠。

八、谁可能成为最大赢家？

如果从未来 3 年产业爆发力排序：

排名	族群	评价
1	CoPoS 设备	★★★★★
2	CoWoS 设备	★★★★★
3	ABF 载板	★★★★★
4	面板级封装 (FOPLP)	★★★★☆
5	玻璃基板材料	★★★★☆
6	面板厂转型	★★★★☆

九、投资人必须注意的风险

1. 量产时间可能延后

目前：

2028 量产

只是市场共识。

若：

TGV 良率不佳
翘曲控制失败
成本不如预期

都可能延后。

2. 台积电 POR 未定案

目前仍在验证。

辛耘、弘塑、万润虽受关注，

但最后是否取得大量产订单，

仍需观察。

3. AI 资本支出循环

若未来：

NVIDIA
微软
Google
Amazon

放缓 AI 资本支出，

先进封装扩产速度也可能放慢。

结论

若以未来 3～5 年 AI 供应链角度来看：

最值得关注的主轴

①CoPoS 设备：

辛耘
弘塑
万润
均华
志圣

② ABF 载板：

欣兴
南电
景硕

③面板封装：

群创
友达

其中若以产业趋势、技术门槛、获利爆发力与台积电受惠程度综合评估，

辛耘、弘塑、万润、欣兴可视为 CoPoS 时代最具代表性的「先进封装四大核心受惠股」。

而若 CoPoS 在 2027 年试产顺利、2028 年正式量产，这波行情很可能复制 2023～2025 年 CoWoS 设备股数倍涨幅的历史，成为下一轮 AI 先进封装资本支出的主升段。

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文章来源：伦元投顾陈学进分析师

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"articleView": "article.html", "seoTitle": "", "seoKeywords": "", "seoDescription": "", "type": "0", "dataConfig": null, "level": 1 }, "article": { "id": 2537, "cid": 27, "subCid": null, "title": "台积电CoPoS／FOPLP／玻璃基板大趋势解析、以及相关受惠族群重点分析", "shortTitle": "台积电CoPoS／FOPLP／玻璃基板大趋势解析、以及相关受", "tagId": "", "attr": "", "articleView": null, "source": null, "author": "网络", "description": " AI 封装大革命！台积电 CoPoS 商机与机会、以及相关受惠族群重点分享注意：以下是合理性模型，不是价格保证，请务必搭配资金管理与停损策略 AI 晶片 → CoWoS → CoPoS → Glass Core Substrate（玻璃核心基板）这是一条长达 5 年以上的产业升级主轴。而台股即将迎来的，可能不是单一 CoWoS 行情，而是：「先进封装设备股第二波大循环」。一、为何 CoWoS 已经不够用了？目前 AI 晶片尺寸快速放大： AI", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6505073/l/2002e81541975bb15324b0a2b6cdfc60.jpg", "content": " AI 封装大革命！台积电 CoPoS 商机与机会、以及相关受惠族群重点分享\n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6505073/l/2002e81541975bb15324b0a2b6cdfc60.jpg\" alt=\"台积电CoPoS／FOPLP／玻璃基板大趋势解析、以及相关受惠族群重点分析\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n注意：以下是合理性模型，不是价格保证，请务必搭配资金管理与停损策略\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\nAI 晶片 → CoWoS → CoPoS → Glass Core Substrate（玻璃核心基板）\n\n这是一条长达 5 年以上的产业升级主轴。\n\n而台股即将迎来的，可能不是单一 CoWoS 行情，而是：\n\n「先进封装设备股第二波大循环」。\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n一、为何 CoWoS 已经不够用了？\n\n目前 AI 晶片尺寸快速放大：\n\nAI 晶片 \nBlackwell B200 \nRubin \nRubin Ultra \nGoogle TPU v9x\n\n未来封装尺寸：\n\n<ul>\n<li>Blackwell：约 3.3 倍光罩</li>\n<li> Rubin：约 4 倍光罩</li>\n<li> Rubin Ultra：约 9 倍光罩</li>\n<li> TPU v9x：约 9.5 倍光罩</li>\n</ul>\n\n问题来了：\n\nCoWoS 天花板快到了\n\nCoWoS 本质：\n\nChip → Wafer → Substrate\n\n使用圆形晶圆作为中介平台。\n\n缺点：\n\n<ul>\n<li>材料浪费大</li>\n<li>封装面积有限</li>\n<li>良率控制困难</li>\n<li>成本愈来愈高</li>\n</ul>\n\n尤其：\n\n当封装尺寸超过 9 倍光罩后，\n\nCoWoS 成本曲线开始恶化。\n\n因此台积电 (2330-TW) 开始推：\n\nCoPoS\n\nChip → Panel → Substrate\n\n由圆变方。\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n二、CoPoS 最大的革命是什么？\n\n答案：\n\n面板化（Panelization）\n\n从：\n\n300mm Wafer\n\n变成：\n\n310×310 \n510×515 \n620×750\n\n大型方形面板。\n\n优势：\n\n材料利用率\n\nCoWoS\n\n约 50~65%\n\nCoPoS\n\n可达 75~95%\n\n直接提升：\n\n<ul>\n<li>良率</li>\n<li>产能</li>\n<li>成本竞争力</li>\n</ul>\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\nAI 晶片数量暴增\n\n同样面积下：\n\n12 吋晶圆\n\n约 4 组 B200\n\n改用大型面板：\n\n可达 9~16 组\n\n产能倍增。\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n三、台积电目前进度\n\n市场共识：\n\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>\n时间\n</th>\n<th>\n进度\n</th>\n</tr>\n</thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>\n2026\n</td>\n<td>\n验证线\n</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n2027\n</td>\n<td>\n试产\n</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n2028 下半年\n</td>\n<td>\n量产\n</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n2029~2030\n</td>\n<td>\n大规模扩产\n</td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>\n\nTrendForce 与郭明?看法相近：\n\n真正爆发时间点：\n\n2028~2032\n\n这将是下一轮先进封装黄金五年。\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n四、为何辛耘 (3583-TW)、万润 (6187-TW)、弘塑 (3131-TW) 突然爆红？\n\n因为 CoPoS 设备验证采：\n\n双线并行\n\n第一队\n\n国际设备商\n\n<ul>\n<li>TEL</li>\n<li>SCREEN</li>\n<li>ASM</li>\n<li>Applied Materials</li>\n</ul>\n\n等。\n\n优势：\n\n<ul>\n<li>量产经验</li>\n<li>稳定度高</li>\n</ul>\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n第二队\n\n台湾设备商\n\n<ul>\n<li>辛耘 (3583-TW)</li>\n<li> 弘塑 (3131-TW)</li>\n<li> 万润 (6187-TW)</li>\n</ul>\n\n优势：\n\n<ul>\n<li>成本低</li>\n<li>客制化快</li>\n<li>在地支援快</li>\n</ul>\n\n而且：\n\n台积电近年明显提高本土设备采购比例。\n\n因此：\n\n若验证成功，\n\n台厂有机会直接吃下未来数千亿元资本支出商机。\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n五、设备股谁受惠最大？\n\n第一梯队（直接受惠）\n\n辛耘（3583-TW）\n\n受惠：\n\n<ul>\n<li>湿制程设备</li>\n<li>清洗设备</li>\n<li> CoPoS 验证</li>\n</ul>\n\n法人认为：\n\n最有机会取得 POR 资格。\n\n★★★★★\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n弘塑（3131-TW）\n\n受惠：\n\n<ul>\n<li>电镀</li>\n<li>湿制程</li>\n</ul>\n\nCoWoS 已受惠。\n\nCoPoS 有望延续。\n\n★★★★★\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n万润（6187-TW）\n\n受惠：\n\n<ul>\n<li>点胶</li>\n<li>贴合</li>\n<li>自动化封装</li>\n</ul>\n\n未来面板级封装产线需求增加。\n\n★★★★★\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n第二梯队\n\n均华（6640-TW）\n\n先进封装设备\n\n★★★★☆\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n志圣（2467-TW）\n\n热制程设备\n\n★★★★☆\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n均豪（5443-TW）\n\nFOPLP 设备\n\n★★★★☆\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n由田（3455-TW）\n\nAOI 检测\n\n★★★★☆\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n六、玻璃基板真正受惠者是谁？\n\n市场最大的误解：\n\n「玻璃取代 ABF」\n\n其实错误。\n\n郭明?已明确指出：\n\n玻璃与 ABF 是共存。\n\n不是取代。\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n结构：\n\nABF\n\n↓\n\n玻璃核心\n\n↓\n\nABF\n\n三明治架构\n\n因此：\n\nABF 仍受惠\n\n受惠股：\n\n欣兴 (3037-TW)\n\n★★★★★\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n南电 (8046-TW)\n\n★★★★★\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n景硕 (3189-TW)\n\n★★★★☆\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n七、面板厂将迎来第二春\n\n最大黑马：\n\n群创 (3481-TW)\n\n原因：\n\n本来就有：\n\n<ul>\n<li>大尺寸玻璃</li>\n<li>面板搬送</li>\n<li>面板曝光</li>\n<li>面板对位</li>\n</ul>\n\n技术基础。\n\n这些正是 CoPoS 与 Glass Core 最缺的能力。\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n此外：\n\n友达 (2409-TW)\n\n已投入 FOPLP。\n\n未来也有机会受惠。\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n八、谁可能成为最大赢家？\n\n如果从未来 3 年产业爆发力排序：\n\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>\n排名\n</th>\n<th>\n族群\n</th>\n<th>\n评价\n</th>\n</tr>\n</thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>\n1\n</td>\n<td>\nCoPoS 设备\n</td>\n<td>\n★★★★★\n</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n2\n</td>\n<td>\nCoWoS 设备\n</td>\n<td>\n★★★★★\n</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n3\n</td>\n<td>\nABF 载板\n</td>\n<td>\n★★★★★\n</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n4\n</td>\n<td>\n面板级封装 (FOPLP)\n</td>\n<td>\n★★★★☆\n</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n5\n</td>\n<td>\n玻璃基板材料\n</td>\n<td>\n★★★★☆\n</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n6\n</td>\n<td>\n面板厂转型\n</td>\n<td>\n★★★★☆\n</td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n九、投资人必须注意的风险\n\n1. 量产时间可能延后\n\n目前：\n\n2028 量产\n\n只是市场共识。\n\n若：\n\n<ul>\n<li>TGV 良率不佳</li>\n<li>翘曲控制失败</li>\n<li>成本不如预期</li>\n</ul>\n\n都可能延后。\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n2. 台积电 POR 未定案\n\n目前仍在验证。\n\n辛耘、弘塑、万润虽受关注，\n\n但最后是否取得大量产订单，\n\n仍需观察。\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n3. AI 资本支出循环\n\n若未来：\n\n<ul>\n<li>NVIDIA</li>\n<li> 微软</li>\n<li> Google</li>\n<li>Amazon</li>\n</ul>\n\n放缓 AI 资本支出，\n\n先进封装扩产速度也可能放慢。\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n结论\n\n若以未来 3～5 年 AI 供应链角度来看：\n\n最值得关注的主轴\n\n①CoPoS 设备：\n\n<ul>\n<li>辛耘</li>\n<li>弘塑</li>\n<li>万润</li>\n<li>均华</li>\n<li>志圣</li>\n</ul>\n\n② ABF 载板：\n\n<ul>\n<li>欣兴</li>\n<li>南电</li>\n<li>景硕</li>\n</ul>\n\n③面板封装：\n\n<ul>\n<li>群创</li>\n<li>友达</li>\n</ul>\n\n其中若以产业趋势、技术门槛、获利爆发力与台积电受惠程度综合评估，\n\n辛耘、弘塑、万润、欣兴可视为 CoPoS 时代最具代表性的「先进封装四大核心受惠股」。\n\n而若 CoPoS 在 2027 年试产顺利、2028 年正式量产，这波行情很可能复制 2023～2025 年 CoWoS 设备股数倍涨幅的历史，成为下一轮 AI 先进封装资本支出的主升段。\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n不要轻忽 AI 商机的威力\n\n与其等待奇迹\n\n不如主动创造机会\n\n现在最重要的\n\n不是猜大盘涨跌\n\n而是找出下一档具有翻倍潜力的主流飙股\n\n第一波飙股大获全胜\n\n第二波隐形冠军飙股准备接棒喷出\n\n你一定要积极霸气跟上\n\n机会永远留给愿意改变的人\n\n当你下定决心的那一刻起\n\n就是你改写人生的关键转折\n\n立即填写表单，把握下一波财富列车\n\n<a href=\"https://forms.gle/HxoQKK4bQ1Y7ydq78\">https://forms.gle/HxoQKK4bQ1Y7ydq78</a>\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"289\" data-mime=\"image/jpeg\" data-ratio=\"1.505190311418685\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6505073/m/e7326e16819c5515d355c883119b83b1.jpg\" data-width=\"435\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6505073/m/e7326e16819c5515d355c883119b83b1.jpg\"></figure>\n\n<div class=\"youtube-embed-wrapper\" style=\"position:relative;padding-bottom:56.25%;padding-top:30px;height:0;overflow:hidden;\">\n<figure><img data-height=\"287\" data-mime=\"image/jpeg\" data-ratio=\"1.5156794425087108\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6505073/m/6852de9b8316db5aeafee9f0b2dfd42a.jpg\" data-width=\"435\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6505073/m/6852de9b8316db5aeafee9f0b2dfd42a.jpg\"></figure>\n</div>\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"289\" data-mime=\"image/jpeg\" data-ratio=\"1.519031141868512\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6505073/m/4e85825f8b65ff89d38e4c6425929282.jpg\" data-width=\"439\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6505073/m/4e85825f8b65ff89d38e4c6425929282.jpg\"></figure>\n\n<div class=\"youtube-embed-wrapper\" style=\"position:relative;padding-bottom:56.25%;padding-top:30px;height:0;overflow:hidden;\"><iframe allowfullscreen=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"360\" src=\"//www.youtube.com/embed/awuRvwfyo5k\" style=\"position: absolute;top: 0;left: 0;width: 100%;height: 100%;\" width=\"640\"></iframe></div>\n\n工商时报绩效竞赛 13 冠王、卓越绩效傲视同业、专业实力有目共赌！ \n更多第一手讯息、以及飙股机会→请加入大师兄飙股鑫天地的大家族 \nLINE@连结网址：<a href=\"https://line.me/R/ti/p/@gold99\">https://line.me/R/ti/p/%40gold99</a> \nTelegram 连结网址：<a href=\"https://t.me/gold0999\">https://t.me/gold0999</a> \nYT 个人专属频道：<a href=\"mailto:youtube.com/@master55688\">youtube.com/@master55688</a> \n举手之劳 \n记得！按赞、订阅、分享、开启小铃铛 \n让更多人可以看见我们的影片 \n咨询专线 : 02-2321-9933(24 小时专人服务)\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"520\" data-mime=\"image/png\" data-ratio=\"1.4615384615384615\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6505073/m/f0b8bebb19520db24e54b00a1edc4690.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6505073/l/f0b8bebb19520db24e54b00a1edc4690.jpg\"></figure>\n\n文章来源：伦元投顾陈学进分析师\n\n本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-4613.html\" title=\"达明携手广达进驻德国车电厂 AI机器人升级车载生产线\">达明携手广达进驻德国车电厂 AI机器人升级车载生产线</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-10812.html\" title=\"业外收益进补、产品优化双利多信立Q2 EPS 0.22元较去年由亏转盈\">业外收益进补、产品优化双利多信立Q2 EPS 0.22元较去年由亏转盈</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-7103.html\" title=\"〈国泰世华新董座〉陈祖培揭「内控、风控、客户信赖」三大要务发豪语迈向业界第一\">〈国泰世华新董座〉陈祖培揭「内控、风控、客户信赖」三大要务发豪语迈向业界第一</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-6701.html\" title=\"9/1纳入玉山金！三商寿信用评等连跳3级中华信评看好强健集团资源支持\">9/1纳入玉山金！三商寿信用评等连跳3级中华信评看好强健集团资源支持</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-11341.html\" title=\"精材12吋新引擎启动 IVR明年下半年放量、营运续优今年\">精材12吋新引擎启动 IVR明年下半年放量、营运续优今年</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-7049.html\" title=\"营收速报 - 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