翻多讯号来了？别重蹈上一季「这场修正」的覆辙！看懂当前关键配置

台股强弹突破关键位置，是真翻多还是诱多陷阱？回顾上季修正历史，看似全面翻多的强弹，随后却迎来更残酷的震荡，外资潜在卖压与空单依然是未爆弹，看懂现阶段核心部位的关键配置。

〈强弹收复关卡　量能仍是下一步考验〉

台股今天在电子权值股带动下开高走高，终场上涨 1126 点，收在 46125 点，盘中最高一度大涨逾 1600 点，不仅重新站上 46000 点，也回补上周五的跳空缺口，并收复月线、季线与半年线，从技术面来看，这根长红暂时化解连锁停损风险，短线有机会转为以盘代跌的区间整理，不过成交量仅约 1.2 兆元，柜买市场量能同样低于月均水准，代表反弹虽强，追价买盘却没有同步放大，台积电 (2330-TW) 尾盘再度出现调节，加上新台币持续偏弱、外资期货空单尚未明显回补，筹码隐忧仍然没有完全解除。

〈指数反弹不等于全面翻多　保留现金才能掌握节奏〉

今天指数大涨，并不代表所有个股都已经转强，盘面仍以权值股领军及族群快速轮动为主，当买盘没有跨过平均值、卖压却逼近月均量，频繁追高杀低，很容易出现指数在区间内原地整理，帐上本金却因不断进出而持续耗损的情况，回顾先前地缘政治冲突引发修正时，市场也曾出现看似全面翻多的急弹，后续仍进入剧烈震荡，在长线多头趋势尚未改变的前提下，现阶段保留核心多单，同时维持一定比例现金，等待量能确认或拉回时再灵活调度。

〈免费下载【陈智霖分析师 APP】，掌握第一手盘势资讯与信用筹码名单〉

APP 选股会员每月仅限额招收，名额有限，每周都会提供最新「信用筹码疑虑名单」，邀请您点选连结下载【陈智霖分析师 APP】：https://lihi.cc/zwrii

〈ABF 供需看到 2028 年　散热升级趋势没有改变〉

ABF 载板与设备仍是目前最清楚的市场主流，智霖老师看好的长广 (7795-TW) 今天再度涨停，已经连续三根涨停板，反映资金持续聚焦设备报价、先进封装扩产与高阶载板供给吃紧，下游客户透过长期协议及预付款锁定产能，甚至协助载板厂采购关键设备，有助降低折旧压力，推升整体产业链的获利结构，市场目前多以未来四季或 2027 年获利进行评价，但真正的供需缺口高峰预期落在 2028 年，不排除市场逐步改用 2028 年获利重新估值。

欣兴 (3037-TW) 虽需消化高档套牢筹码，但 ABF 供需与玻璃基板带来的长线能见度并未改变，今天同样攻上涨停板锁住，AI 伺服器推动散热规格升级的刚性需求依旧存在，指标股奇𬭎 (3017-TW) 今天也强势收高。现在不是看到反弹就每一档都追，而是从主流里寻找位置较低、筹码较干净的族群，产业趋势不会因为一天的涨跌就改变，邀请投资人下载【陈智霖分析师 APP】，即时资讯都会在 APP 内第一时间分享，每周也会更新信用筹码疑虑名单，帮你避开风险、锁定机会。

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钱进热线 02-2653-8299，立即迈向系统依据的股票操作。

文章来源：陈智霖分析师 / 凯旭投顾

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投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险

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auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n〈强弹收复关卡　量能仍是下一步考验〉\n\n台股今天在电子权值股带动下开高走高，终场上涨 1126 点，收在 46125 点，盘中最高一度大涨逾 1600 点，不仅重新站上 46000 点，也回补上周五的跳空缺口，并收复月线、季线与半年线，从技术面来看，这根长红暂时化解连锁停损风险，短线有机会转为以盘代跌的区间整理，不过成交量仅约 1.2 兆元，柜买市场量能同样低于月均水准，代表反弹虽强，追价买盘却没有同步放大，台积电 (2330-TW) 尾盘再度出现调节，加上新台币持续偏弱、外资期货空单尚未明显回补，筹码隐忧仍然没有完全解除。\n\n〈指数反弹不等于全面翻多　保留现金才能掌握节奏〉\n\n今天指数大涨，并不代表所有个股都已经转强，盘面仍以权值股领军及族群快速轮动为主，当买盘没有跨过平均值、卖压却逼近月均量，频繁追高杀低，很容易出现指数在区间内原地整理，帐上本金却因不断进出而持续耗损的情况，回顾先前地缘政治冲突引发修正时，市场也曾出现看似全面翻多的急弹，后续仍进入剧烈震荡，在长线多头趋势尚未改变的前提下，现阶段保留核心多单，同时维持一定比例现金，等待量能确认或拉回时再灵活调度。\n\n〈免费下载【陈智霖分析师 APP】，掌握第一手盘势资讯与信用筹码名单〉\n\nAPP 选股会员每月仅限额招收，名额有限，每周都会提供最新「信用筹码疑虑名单」，邀请您点选连结下载【陈智霖分析师 APP】：<a href=\"https://lihi.cc/zwrii\">https://lihi.cc/zwrii</a>\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"156\" data-mime=\"image/png\" data-ratio=\"4.108974358974359\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6517883/m/c05a2e5ccbf5cc31c86d46d5b3e793bf.jpg\" data-width=\"641\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6517883/l/c05a2e5ccbf5cc31c86d46d5b3e793bf.jpg\"></figure>\n\n \n\n〈ABF 供需看到 2028 年　散热升级趋势没有改变〉\n\nABF 载板与设备仍是目前最清楚的市场主流，<a href=\"https://news.cnyes.com/tag/%E9%99%B3%E6%99%BA%E9%9C%96\">智霖老师</a>看好的长广 (7795-TW) 今天再度涨停，已经连续三根涨停板，反映资金持续聚焦设备报价、先进封装扩产与高阶载板供给吃紧，下游客户透过长期协议及预付款锁定产能，甚至协助载板厂采购关键设备，有助降低折旧压力，推升整体产业链的获利结构，市场目前多以未来四季或 2027 年获利进行评价，但真正的供需缺口高峰预期落在 2028 年，不排除市场逐步改用 2028 年获利重新估值。\n\n欣兴 (3037-TW) 虽需消化高档套牢筹码，但 ABF 供需与玻璃基板带来的长线能见度并未改变，今天同样攻上涨停板锁住，AI 伺服器推动散热规格升级的刚性需求依旧存在，指标股奇𬭎 (3017-TW) 今天也强势收高。现在不是看到反弹就每一档都追，而是从主流里寻找位置较低、筹码较干净的族群，产业趋势不会因为一天的涨跌就改变，邀请投资人下载【陈智霖分析师 APP】，即时资讯都会在 APP 内第一时间分享，每周也会更新信用筹码疑虑名单，帮你避开风险、锁定机会。\n\n最新影音 (请点影音上方标题至 Youtube 收视品质会更佳)\n\n<div class=\"youtube-embed-wrapper\" style=\"position:relative;padding-bottom:56.25%;padding-top:30px;height:0;overflow:hidden;\"><iframe allowfullscreen=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"360\" src=\"//www.youtube.com/embed/ssmwgPD00iQ\" style=\"position: absolute;top: 0;left: 0;width: 100%;height: 100%;\" width=\"640\"></iframe></div>\n\n〈立即填表体验咨询陈智霖分析师会员服务〉\n\n忠实粉丝请先完成填表申请，体验每周精选操作名单、盘中到价盘中通知与即时策略更新。跟着我们卡位「五路财神」，面对震荡行情，理性分析与数据判断是关键，立即填表跟上专业：<a href=\"https://lihi.cc/RFzlE\">https://lihi.cc/RFzlE</a>\n\n钱进热线 02-2653-8299，立即迈向系统依据的股票操作。\n\n文章来源：陈智霖分析师 / 凯旭投顾\n\n本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券 \n无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利 \n投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-18694.html\" title=\"稳懋9月营收年月双增 Q3受惠光通讯出货放大增长\">稳懋9月营收年月双增 Q3受惠光通讯出货放大增长</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-14966.html\" title=\"营收速报 - 大华(9905)8月营收10.58亿元年增率高达37.83％\">营收速报 - 大华(9905)8月营收10.58亿元年增率高达37.83％</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-21467.html\" title=\"员工的隐形焦虑，担心被资遣！如何替自己准备退路？\">员工的隐形焦虑，担心被资遣！如何替自己准备退路？</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-18282.html\" title=\"汉唐(2404)、帆宣(6196)卡位台积电赴美大单！美国P2、P3发包时程与在手订单营运能见度全解析\">汉唐(2404)、帆宣(6196)卡位台积电赴美大单！美国P2、P3发包时程与在手订单营运能见度全解析</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-18350.html\" 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