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血洗1700点的幕后真凶抓到了 惊见『被错杀神股』是它!

2026-08-21 21:36:34 钜亨网 阅读(13)

最近很多人问江江:「AI 基本面明明这么好,为什么这波跌得这么深?」

血洗1700点的幕后真凶抓到了  惊见『被错杀神股』是它!

先讲答案:不是 AI 需求消失,而是台股住满了随时想变现跑路的投机客,这次下跌的核心原因,就是「筹码修正」与「去杠杆」。

一、修正正乖离: 前阵子台股涨得太快、太疯,股价离均线太远,就像风筝线拉得太紧,主力必须透过杀盘,让股价「回撤长均线」,把过热的技术指标修正回来。

二、清融资(去杠杆): 前阵子融资余额增加的速度简直是在坐火箭。散户拿着杠杆往前冲,筹码面变得很差。主力这时候不杀,难道要帮散户擡轿吗?他们必须透过大震荡,强迫不稳定的浮额断头离场。

当大家在害怕、不敢买的时候,就是我们该准备「弯腰捡钻石」的时候。这时候你要锁定的对象很明确:营收创高、股价回测长均线、且散户因恐慌断头卖出的绩优股。

重点观察: 4 档被「错杀」的钻石标股

1. 护国神山:台积电 (2330-TW)

虽然近日受到政治面、战争风险等非基本面因素干扰,但台积电的领先地位就是它的「最强护城河」。最新公布的 6 月营收冲上 4426.8 亿元新台币,年增达 67.9%,再度创下单月历史新高!本周四即将召开法说会,市场普遍预期其下半年展望依然强劲。若股价再度回撤长均线的方式修正,将诞生下半年唯一一次的绝佳买点。

2. 被动元件的超级循环:华新科 (2492-TW)

AI 应用带动电感、电容用量倍增。华新科这波修正已接近季线,更重要的是,技术面预计在 1 到 2 周后进入「扣抵低值 (扣 3 低)」的黄金转折点。当结构变漂亮,这种大成长股极易爆发「暴力行情」。同族群的蜜望实 (8043-TW) 也呈现类似的盘底蓄势结构。

3. 记忆体的回春:南亚科 (2408-TW)

即便大盘暴跌,南亚科的「马力指标」依然维持强势,代表有大人在护盘。随着 DDR5 与 HBM 需求爆发,记忆体族群正处于修整期的尾端,同样预计在两周后进入扣 3D 阶段,用短暂的整理换取未来更暴力的喷出。另外,华邦电 (2344-TW) 也是值得关注的重点标的。

4. 高成长实力派:台达电 (2308-TW)

台达电 6 月营收表现亮眼,月增率 11.3%、年增率高达 55.4%!随着股价与 100 日 MA 均线的乖离缩小,作为电力与散热需求的长期赢家,其护城河地位极难被动摇,绝对是长线资金避风港。

同样值得注意的还有 AI 伺服器 CCL 领头羊联茂 (6213-TW),以及 6 月营收年增 67.5% 的股王信骅 (5274-TW),基本面依旧是铁板一块。

更多产业趋势报告 + 盘中讯息→请加入江江 Line@:

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文章来源:摩尔投顾-江国中分析师

本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险

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    "content": "<p>最近很多人问江江:「AI 基本面明明这么好,为什么这波跌得这么深?」</p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6535050/l/463a0ceb195597fdcb0748962396e66d.jpg\" alt=\"血洗1700点的幕后真凶抓到了  惊见『被错杀神股』是它!\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<p>先讲答案:不是 AI 需求消失,而是台股住满了随时想变现跑路的投机客,这次下跌的核心原因,就是「筹码修正」与「去杠杆」。</p>\n\n<p>一、修正正乖离: 前阵子台股涨得太快、太疯,股价离均线太远,就像风筝线拉得太紧,主力必须透过杀盘,让股价「回撤长均线」,把过热的技术指标修正回来。</p>\n\n<p>二、清融资(去杠杆): 前阵子融资余额增加的速度简直是在坐火箭。散户拿着杠杆往前冲,筹码面变得很差。主力这时候不杀,难道要帮散户擡轿吗?他们必须透过大震荡,强迫不稳定的浮额断头离场。</p>\n\n<p>当大家在害怕、不敢买的时候,就是我们该准备「弯腰捡钻石」的时候。这时候你要锁定的对象很明确:营收创高、股价回测长均线、且散户因恐慌断头卖出的绩优股。</p>\n\n<p><em>重点观察: 4 档被「错杀」的钻石标股</em></p>\n\n<p><em>1. 护国神山:台积电 (2330-TW)</em></p>\n\n<p>虽然近日受到政治面、战争风险等非基本面因素干扰,但台积电的领先地位就是它的「最强护城河」。最新公布的 6 月营收冲上 4426.8 亿元新台币,年增达 67.9%,再度创下单月历史新高!本周四即将召开法说会,市场普遍预期其下半年展望依然强劲。若股价再度回撤长均线的方式修正,将诞生下半年唯一一次的绝佳买点。</p>\n\n<p><em>2. 被动元件的超级循环:华新科 (2492-TW)</em></p>\n\n<p>AI 应用带动电感、电容用量倍增。华新科这波修正已接近季线,更重要的是,技术面预计在 1 到 2 周后进入「扣抵低值 (扣 3 低)」的黄金转折点。当结构变漂亮,这种大成长股极易爆发「暴力行情」。同族群的蜜望实 (8043-TW) 也呈现类似的盘底蓄势结构。</p>\n\n<p><em>3. 记忆体的回春:南亚科 (2408-TW)</em></p>\n\n<p>即便大盘暴跌,南亚科的「马力指标」依然维持强势,代表有大人在护盘。随着 DDR5 与 HBM 需求爆发,记忆体族群正处于修整期的尾端,同样预计在两周后进入扣 3D 阶段,用短暂的整理换取未来更暴力的喷出。另外,华邦电 (2344-TW) 也是值得关注的重点标的。</p>\n\n<p><em>4. 高成长实力派:台达电 (2308-TW)</em></p>\n\n<p>台达电 6 月营收表现亮眼,月增率 11.3%、年增率高达 55.4%!随着股价与 100 日 MA 均线的乖离缩小,作为电力与散热需求的长期赢家,其护城河地位极难被动摇,绝对是长线资金避风港。</p>\n\n<p>同样值得注意的还有 AI 伺服器 CCL 领头羊联茂 (6213-TW),以及 6 月营收年增 67.5% 的股王信骅 (5274-TW),基本面依旧是铁板一块。</p>\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"400\" data-mime=\"image/jpeg\" data-ratio=\"1.2525\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6535050/m/294f5de99e876069e53ebf83fb254169.jpg\" data-width=\"501\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6535050/l/294f5de99e876069e53ebf83fb254169.jpg\"></figure>\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"422\" data-mime=\"image/jpeg\" data-ratio=\"1.1848341232227488\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6535050/m/e089bacfa033c00d7fefc7b93af7e854.jpg\" data-width=\"500\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6535050/l/e089bacfa033c00d7fefc7b93af7e854.jpg\"></figure>\n\n<p>更多产业趋势报告 + 盘中讯息&rarr;请加入江江 Line@:</p>\n\n<p><a href=\"https://lin.ee/vTaRqlQ\">https://lin.ee/vTaRqlQ</a></p>\n\n<p>江江每日解盘影片&rarr;含金量满满,节目内容太精彩 + 太权威惹!</p>\n\n<div class=\"youtube-embed-wrapper\" style=\"position:relative;padding-bottom:56.25%;padding-top:30px;height:0;overflow:hidden;\"><iframe allowfullscreen=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"360\" src=\"//www.youtube.com/embed/oI__WzHI7-0\" style=\"position: absolute;top: 0;left: 0;width: 100%;height: 100%;\" width=\"640\"></iframe></div>\n\n<p>坚持用心制作优质好节目,一定要看到最后!</p>\n\n<p>并且【订阅 + 按赞 + 分享帮助好友】</p>\n\n<p>文章来源:摩尔投顾-江国中分析师</p>\n\n<p class=\"warning\">本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险</p>\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n  <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n  <ul>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-1738.html\" title=\"营收速报  - 亚德客-KY(1590)5月营收39.09亿元年增率高达40.39%\">营收速报  - 亚德客-KY(1590)5月营收39.09亿元年增率高达40.39%</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-6079.html\" title=\"巨亨速报 - Factset 最新调查:南电(8046-TW)EPS预估上修至15.4元,预估目标价为1300元\">巨亨速报 - Factset 最新调查:南电(8046-TW)EPS预估上修至15.4元,预估目标价为1300元</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-8746.html\" title=\"长科*Q2获利大增5倍、EPS 0.71元  Q3营收估再增双位数\">长科*Q2获利大增5倍、EPS 0.71元  Q3营收估再增双位数</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-7115.html\" title=\"盘中速报 - 柜买市场加权指数下跌-26.58点至380.43点,跌幅6.53%\">盘中速报 - 柜买市场加权指数下跌-26.58点至380.43点,跌幅6.53%</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-6175.html\" title=\"营收速报 - 2026年7月11日台股中小型公司6月营收一览(新增226家)\">营收速报 - 2026年7月11日台股中小型公司6月营收一览(新增226家)</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-11072.html\" title=\"巨亨速报 - Factset 最新调查:华硕(2357-TW)EPS预估上修至56.27元,预估目标价为860元\">巨亨速报 - Factset 最新调查:华硕(2357-TW)EPS预估上修至56.27元,预估目标价为860元</a></li>\n  </ul>\n</div>",
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    "createdAt": "2026-07-15T00:30:17.000Z",
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