天天财经-提供金融入门知识-投资理财技巧-国际金价连涨三周站上4600美元反弹还是反转？

国际金价连涨三周站上4600美元反弹还是反转？

2026-08-24 09:14:52 网络阅读（1）
在今年第二季重挫14%、创2013年以来最差季表现后，国际金价自上月低点反弹约10%，上周五(21日)伦敦现货金价站上每盎司4600美元，周线连三涨。对此瑞银大宗商品分析师Giovanni Staunovo表示，全球债务攀升与美元走弱是去年金价大涨的底层逻辑，如今再度卷土重来，「未来12个月将推动金价至每盎司5400美元」。

触发点是8月19日美国财政部宣布，将10—30年期美债流动性回购单次规模从20亿美元至少翻倍至40亿美元，试图稳住长债利率。
国际金价连涨三周站上4600美元反弹还是反转？
消息一出，10年期美债殖利率回落、美元指数跌近1%失守99关口，金价10分钟内拉升超100美元。即便随后殖利率反弹，黄金仍维持涨势，投资人看清的是另一个讯号：美债总额同期首破40兆美元。
美国海克罗夫特矿业执行长Diane R. Garrett指出，债务成本与存续周期已成政策核心变量，这正是央行持续减美债、增持黄金的结构性理由。
根据世界黄金协会(WGC)数据显示，今年首季全球央行增储黄金244吨，Q2净购金288.9吨，中国央行截至7月底黄金储备7608万盎司，连续第21个月增持。

分析师提醒，反弹并非单边顺风。Staunovo表示，中东冲突推高油价→通膨黏性→央行不敢轻易降息→债券殖利率上行，将压制金价。
中国国新证券指出，若今年内真的升息将限缩反弹空间。StoneX分析师Rhona O'Connell与Trade Nation分析师David Morrison均认为，自低点反弹10%已经很快，4400美元若回踩守住仍偏多，但短线需一轮消化。
东方金诚白雪则总结说：「实际利率走高压抑金价，但去美元化、央行购金与美伊避险形成对冲，更可能高位波动，而非单边下跌。」
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      "description": "〈台股风向球〉长债殖利率波动紧密牵动资金位移 辉达财报受瞩",
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      "description": "美债30年期殖利率上周二(18日)盘中触及 5.334%，创2007年来新高，次日美国财政部宣布启动「发短买长」式回购、单次规模可能超40亿美元，30年殖利率应声回落至5.183%，但又在上周五(21日)弹回5.276%。 《第一财经》报导，在美国联邦债务站上40兆美元关口的阴影下，市场对财政赤字与长端通膨的担忧并未被一则回购声明消解。美国财长贝森特日前说，美国「有很大可能」步入赤字缩小轨道，当前殖利率「未反映潜在基本面」，尤其30年债「流动性非常差」但BCA Research核心宏观主管Art",
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      "shortTitle": "高盛：市场弥漫着「停滞性通货膨胀」的味道！贝森特出手仍难敌油",
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      "createdAt": "2026-08-23T07:40:05.000Z",
      "description": "贝森特试图透过美债回购与财政整合压低长债殖利率，但10年期、30年期美债殖利率反弹，加上油价飙升、黄金走强、消费降温，市场重新押注停滞性通货膨胀风险。",
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      "id": 12447,
      "title": "比特币为何突然暴涨？能否突破8万美元需观察这「三项指标」",
      "shortTitle": "比特币为何突然暴涨？能否突破8万美元需观察这「三项指标」",
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      "createdAt": "2026-08-23T09:20:02.000Z",
      "description": "比特币本周大涨逾20%，一度升至79,455美元，创3个月新高。美债回购、美元走弱与空头清算推升行情，ETF资金回流能否延续涨势成关键。",
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      "id": 12448,
      "title": "川普重仓方向曝光！6月狂交易逾千笔股票、买进近5000万美元",
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      "description": "川普最新财务披露显示，其投资帐户6月交易逾1,000笔，买进超过4,900万美元股票，波克夏、Visa、Mastercard成主要买盘，白宫强调川普未参与决策。",
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    "title": "国际金价连涨三周站上4600美元 反弹还是反转？",
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    "description": "在今年第二季重挫14%、创2013年以来最差季表现后，国际金价自上月低点反弹约10%，上周五(21日)伦敦现货金价站上每盎司4600美元，周线连三涨。对此瑞银大宗商品分析师Giovanni Staunovo表示，全球债务攀升与美元走弱是去年金价大涨的底层逻辑，如今再度卷土重来，「未来12个月将推动金价至每盎司5400美元」。 触发点是8月19日美国财政部宣布，将10&mdash;30年期美债流动性回购单次规模从20亿美元至少翻倍至40亿美元，试图稳住长债利率。 消息一出，10年期美债殖利率回落、",
    "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6584652/l/be31ac1e3463a09f69b0c0485f486a59.jpg",
    "content": "<p>在今年第二季重挫14%、创2013年以来最差季表现后，国际金价自上月低点反弹约10%，上周五(21日)伦敦现货金价站上每盎司4600美元，周线连三涨。对此瑞银大宗商品分析师Giovanni Staunovo表示，全球债务攀升与美元走弱是去年金价大涨的底层逻辑，如今再度卷土重来，「未来12个月将推动金价至每盎司5400美元」。<br>\n<br>\n触发点是8月19日美国财政部宣布，将10&mdash;30年期美债流动性回购单次规模从20亿美元至少翻倍至40亿美元，试图稳住长债利率。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6584652/l/be31ac1e3463a09f69b0c0485f486a59.jpg\" alt=\"国际金价连涨三周站上4600美元 反弹还是反转？\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<p>消息一出，10年期美债殖利率回落、美元指数跌近1%失守99关口，金价10分钟内拉升超100美元。即便随后殖利率反弹，黄金仍维持涨势，投资人看清的是另一个讯号：美债总额同期首破40兆美元。</p>\n\n<p>美国海克罗夫特矿业执行长Diane R. Garrett指出，债务成本与存续周期已成政策核心变量，这正是央行持续减美债、增持黄金的结构性理由。</p>\n\n<p>根据世界黄金协会(WGC)数据显示，今年首季全球央行增储黄金244吨，Q2净购金288.9吨，中国央行截至7月底黄金储备7608万盎司，连续第21个月增持。<br>\n<br>\n分析师提醒，反弹并非单边顺风。Staunovo表示，中东冲突推高油价&rarr;通膨黏性&rarr;央行不敢轻易降息&rarr;债券殖利率上行，将压制金价。</p>\n\n<p>中国国新证券指出，若今年内真的升息将限缩反弹空间。StoneX分析师Rhona O'Connell与Trade Nation分析师David Morrison均认为，自低点反弹10%已经很快，4400美元若回踩守住仍偏多，但短线需一轮消化。</p>\n\n<p>东方金诚白雪则总结说：「实际利率走高压抑金价，但去美元化、央行购金与美伊避险形成对冲，更可能高位波动，而非单边下跌。」</p>\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n  <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n  <ul>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-12437.html\" title=\"加拿大反击川普！9月8日祭对等反制关税、9000亿美元贸易关系面临冲击\">加拿大反击川普！9月8日祭对等反制关税、9000亿美元贸易关系面临冲击</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-12461.html\" title=\"Fed不透明的新沟通方式将引发市场「混乱」！高盛警告：无助于经济运作\">Fed不透明的新沟通方式将引发市场「混乱」！高盛警告：无助于经济运作</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-12465.html\" title=\"伊朗称美国「已陷入绝望」！呛新制裁也会失败  巴基斯坦陆军参谋长将访德黑兰\">伊朗称美国「已陷入绝望」！呛新制裁也会失败  巴基斯坦陆军参谋长将访德黑兰</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-12440.html\" title=\"「压得住实质利率压不住期限溢价」 策略师：「贝森特经济学」难以避免股债碰撞\">「压得住实质利率压不住期限溢价」 策略师：「贝森特经济学」难以避免股债碰撞</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-12441.html\" title=\"伊朗高层喊话结束战争！经济危机恶化、荷姆兹海峡成僵局\">伊朗高层喊话结束战争！经济危机恶化、荷姆兹海峡成僵局</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-12427.html\" title=\"川普暗示可出动美军干预债市 引发网友热议\">川普暗示可出动美军干预债市 引发网友热议</a></li>\n  </ul>\n</div>",
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