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油价降不下来!美伊战火恐让明年续守每桶80美元

2026-08-31 22:50:21 网络 阅读(1)

《路透》最新调查显示,尽管中国需求疲弱限制油价涨势,但美伊战争引发的中东供应及航运风险持续,使分析师大致维持2026年国际油价每桶高于80美元的预测。

油价降不下来!美伊战火恐让明年续守每桶80美元

《路透》8月访调31名经济学家与分析师,预估2026年布兰特原油均价为每桶85.08美元,美国西德州中级原油(WTI)均价则为80.20美元,与7月预估的85.22美元及80.14美元相差不大。

星展银行(DBS)能源研究主管Suvro Sarkar表示,中国仍是油价面临的最大下行风险。只要油价维持在每桶80美元以上,中国进口需求可能持续低迷,炼油商也只有在油价降至更具吸引力的水准后,才有较强意愿补充库存。

中国6月原油进口量降至近10年低点,7月进口量也较去年同期大减24.3%。受此影响,受访分析师预估,2026年全球石油需求可能每日萎缩100万至160万桶。

不过,中东供应中断风险持续为油价提供支撑。美伊战争自2月底爆发后,攻击范围扩大至波斯湾地区的能源与航运设施,导致包括荷姆兹海峡在内的中东重要水道船舶流量大幅减少。

8月恢复荷姆兹海峡航运的谈判进展有限。美军周日攻击伊朗拉拉克岛(Larak Island)两座发射器,成为7月底以来已知的首次对伊朗攻击。伊朗媒体引述革命卫队说法报导,伊朗随后攻击美国位于约旦的两处空军基地。

供应疑虑推动布兰特原油近期主要在每桶接近90美元至95美元附近交易。伊朗与阿曼仍在协商荷姆兹海峡协议的执行细节,内容包括共同管理水道及分享相关收入。

Price Futures Group资深分析师Phil Flynn表示,交易员已不再押注波斯湾石油出口即将全面崩溃,但同样不认为航运能够迅速恢复正常。《路透》调查显示,分析师预估2026年全球石油市场仍将处于供不应求,供给缺口估计每日介于165万至350万桶。

各机构对需求展望则存在明显分歧。国际能源署(IEA)预估2026年全球石油需求将每日减少160万桶,石油输出国组织(OPEC)则预测每日增加58万桶,但已较先前估值下修20万桶。

OPEC与俄罗斯等产油盟国组成的OPEC+已宣布,9月每日增产18.8万桶,完成撤回2023年以来约165万桶自愿减产措施的计划。然而,美伊战争延续半年后,中东供应中断对市场的影响已盖过OPEC+增产决策。中国进口下滑虽抑制涨幅,但只要航运尚未恢复正常,油价仍可望守在每桶80美元以上。

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