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中国债市涨太凶?人行拟出手限制银行押注长天期债券

2026-09-14 21:46:19 网络 阅读(1)

中国人民银行(中国央行/人行)计划在宏观审慎评估(MPA)架构中新增多项指标,限制银行过度持有长天期债券及基金,以降低债券价格反转时可能面临的投资风险。

中国债市涨太凶?人行拟出手限制银行押注长天期债券

《路透》周一(14日)引述知情人士报导,新规画也将纳入货币市场利率与债券殖利率偏离程度等监测指标。不过,各项指标的具体门槛仍在与金融业者讨论,尚须经过咨询程序,目前并未定案。人行则未立即回应置评请求。

中国债市今年持续走强,与全球债券遭到抛售的情况形成对比。由于中国经济数据疲弱,市场预期官方将祭出更多政策支持,带动资金涌入债市并压低殖利率。

中国10年期公债殖利率周一报1.68%,徘徊在2025年7月以来低点附近;30年期公债殖利率则报2.17%。债券价格与殖利率走势相反,殖利率下降意味债券价格上涨。

不过,银行大量持有长天期债券,也代表其对利率变动更加敏感。一旦殖利率反弹,相关债券价格可能明显下跌,使银行面临评价损失。市场人士表示,部分小型银行持有债券的平均天期及基金投资规模,可能超出人行未来设定的限制,因此面临调整债券投资组合的压力。

人行于2016年正式实施MPA,透过资本与杠杆、流动性、资产品质及信贷政策执行情况等面向评估金融机构,是中国结合货币政策与宏观审慎政策「双支柱」监管架构的重要环节。

若新增指标正式上路,将显示中国监管机关在维持宽松政策、支撑经济的同时,也开始防范银行追逐债券涨势所累积的利率及市场风险。

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