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日元让位 瑞士法郎与瑞典克朗跃升套利交易融资新宠

2026-09-16 21:17:45 网络 阅读(1)

随着日本央行升息预期增温及政府进行汇市联合干预,长期作为全球「套利交易」主要融资货币的日元吸引力渐失。市场投资人开始将目光转向瑞士法郎、瑞典克朗与加拿大元等低殖利率货币,寻找取代日元的新融资管道。

日元让位 瑞士法郎与瑞典克朗跃升套利交易融资新宠

Russell Investments全球固定收益与外汇解决方案策略主管 Van Luu 表示:「投资人仍希望参与套利交易,但借入端的选择成为关键问题。」

他指出,日本今年两度干预汇市并引导升息,显示当局偏好强势日元。相反地,瑞士预计将零利率维持至2027年底,并乐见瑞郎走软以支持出口。因此,从货币政策分歧与汇率角度来看,瑞士法郎已成为最具吸引力的融资货币。

绩效表现也印证了此转变:自7月以来,以日元融资购买澳元的套利交易亏损了1.3%,远不及今年上半年的9%获利;反观以瑞郎融资的套利策略,在2026年整体回报率高达14%。

伦敦 TJM 公司外汇销售与交易董事总经理 Neil Jones 观察指出:「抛售瑞郎并买进日元,正是融资货币发生长期转移的具体体现。」

此外,摩根大通全球外汇策略共同主管 Meera Chandan 则推荐瑞典克朗与加拿大元,做为借入标的。她分析,与澳洲或新兴市场等高殖利率货币相比,克朗与加元存在显著的殖利率劣势,且对经济周期高度敏感,因此建议可相对于受美国联准会升息预期支撑的美元进行抛售。

然而,这类替代策略仍存有风险,日元仍具备远高于其他同业货币的市场流动性。安联环球投资(AllianzGI)多重资产策略投资长 Greg Hirt 提醒,瑞郎作为传统避险资产,在面临地缘政治或欧洲政治风险(如法国与义大利选举)时易剧烈升值。

他指出,在欧洲风险方面,瑞郎是相当标准的避险货币。如果法国确实出现问题,瑞郎将大幅走强。在套利交易极需汇率稳定的前提下,瑞郎的避险属性恐增添市场波动风险。

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      "description": "2026年《财富》世界500强论坛今(16)日在广州举行,论坛以「成长的新方程式」为主题,野村、高盛、瑞银首席经济学家围绕中东战争与油价对全球宏观的影响表态偏审慎乐观,多方认为油价暴涨属阶段性冲击,若中东冲突降温,明年Fed料将转为降息,中国低通膨则保留继续宽松空间。 野村中国首席经济学家陆挺说,俄乌战争持续,加上美伊战争,布兰特油价已升至每桶108美元之上,推高通膨并令近几个月Fed升息预期大增,但战争可望达成解决方案、油价回归正常,理由是多国可释放战略储备,美国等产油国增产形成缓冲,投资人短",
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      "id": 16096,
      "title": "SK海力士劳资争议落幕 获利分红改现金、股票各半",
      "shortTitle": "SK海力士劳资争议落幕 获利分红改现金、股票各半",
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      "createdAt": "2026-09-16T06:45:46.000Z",
      "description": "SK海力士(000660KS) (SKHY-US) 已与工会达成协议,同意将半数获利分红奖金以现金发放,化解一场可能影响全球第二大记忆体晶片制造商生产的劳资争议。 SK 海力士周三(16日)在声明中表示,工会成员以 57% 的同意票通过修订后的薪资与团体协约。在最新协议下,获利分红奖金将改为一半以现金发放、一半以公司股票发放,取代先前提出的现金与股票 40% 比 60% 的方案。 消息公布后,SK 海力士股价在首尔市场上涨逾 2%。 这项协议平息了公司内部紧张情势。SK 海力士是辉达(NVDA-",
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      "id": 16142,
      "title": "欧盟拟推儿童法案 禁止13岁以下儿童使用社群媒体",
      "shortTitle": "欧盟拟推儿童法案 禁止13岁以下儿童使用社群媒体",
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      "createdAt": "2026-09-16T10:10:07.000Z",
      "description": "欧盟执委会主席冯德莱恩(Ursula von der Leyen)周三(16日)表示,欧盟正着手禁止13岁以下儿童使用社群媒体,并对年龄稍大儿童使用的数位技术实施限制。",
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      "id": 16150,
      "title": "能源成本激增 英国8月通膨率升至3.1% 创5个月新高",
      "shortTitle": "能源成本激增 英国8月通膨率升至3.1% 创5个月新高",
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      "createdAt": "2026-09-16T10:40:08.000Z",
      "description": "据英国国家统计局(ONS)数据,受中东冲突引发的能源与燃料价格暴涨影响,英国8月消费者物价指数(CPI)年增率自7月的2.9%加速升至3.1%,创下5个月以来的新高。",
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      "title": "美银经理人调查:现金水位3.9%创半年新高 做多半导体续居最拥挤交易",
      "shortTitle": "美银经理人调查:现金水位3.9%创半年新高 做多半导体续居最",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6608291/l/1fabf21ec834486f6d49427c115ada7f.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-09-16T12:06:24.000Z",
      "description": "美银美林9月经理人调查报告出炉,显示经理人投资心态由全面追逐风险,转向乐观中增添防备。经理人情绪指数自7月高点8.0回落至7.0,现金水位由3.5%回升至3.9%,创下今年3月以来6个月最大单月升幅。现金水位回升,但景气不着陆或仅为软着陆与AI资本支出续强仍是市场共识,资金并出现转向新兴股市趋势。",
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      "title": "Fed升息倒数!高盛揭1988年后股市规律:标普500指数恐回档",
      "shortTitle": "Fed升息倒数!高盛揭1988年后股市规律:标普500指数恐",
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      "description": "联准会升息预期升温,市场关注政策对股市影响。高盛回顾1988年以来数据,发现标普500首次升息后约3个月中位数报酬率为-4%,6个月后重返正值。",
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      "id": 16074,
      "title": "Fed决策倒数!美债空头大军集结至「极端」水准",
      "shortTitle": "Fed决策倒数!美债空头大军集结至「极端」水准",
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      "createdAt": "2026-09-16T05:10:04.000Z",
      "description": "《彭博》报导,联准会 (Fed) 公布利率决策前,美债空头集结,押注公债卖压尚未结束。市场目前不仅认为Fed本周几乎确定升息1码,也预期今年余下时间可能累计升息约2码。",
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    {
      "id": 16075,
      "title": "从规模红利到创新引擎!外商投资回升、美企创4年高 德经济学家:中国市场成全球竞争力「健身房」",
      "shortTitle": "从规模红利到创新引擎!外商投资回升、美企创4年高 德经济学家",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6607770/l/b2c010b243e6ec468aa19ef01b463b9c.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-09-16T04:20:03.000Z",
      "description": "在全球投资版图持续调整、跨国企业重新审视全球布局的背景下,越来越多外国企业正用实际行动表达对中国市场的信心。 最新数据显示,美国、德国等国跨国企业近期对中国的投资意愿显著回升,获利预期改善。更重要的是,中国经济的转型升级正催生新的成长动能,令中国市场从过去的「世界工厂」转变为跨国企业提升全球竞争力的「练兵场」。 美国企业投资意愿达到四年来最高。上海美国商会上周四(10日)发布《2026年中国商业报告》指出,2025年扩大对中国投资的受访美企占比达28%,创4年新高,78%受访企业实现获利,比上一",
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      "id": 16084,
      "title": "监管法案停滞与升息阴影双重夹击 比特币价格跌破76000美元",
      "shortTitle": "监管法案停滞与升息阴影双重夹击 比特币价格跌破76000美元",
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      "description": "美国国会未能推动关键的加密货币架构法案《清晰法案》(Clarity Act),加上美国联准会(Fed)即将召开会议并可能升息,使加密货币市场再度承压。",
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      "id": 16085,
      "title": "巴黎莱雅取代LVMH登法国股王 9年来首见非奢侈品称霸",
      "shortTitle": "巴黎莱雅取代LVMH登法国股王 9年来首见非奢侈品称霸",
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      "createdAt": "2026-09-16T06:00:02.000Z",
      "description": "法国股市市值排名出现多年来罕见变化,化妆品巨头巴黎莱雅(L'Oréal)取代精品龙头LVMH,成为法国市值最高的上市公司。随着高端奢侈品产业近年面临销售放缓与业绩承压,投资人资金逐渐转向表现相对稳健的消费品牌。 截至周二(15日)法国股市收盘,巴黎莱雅股价下跌0.78%,市值约2345.4亿美元;LVMH则收跌2.64%,最新市值为2314.4亿美元,两家公司市值差距拉开,也让巴黎莱雅正式站上法国股市龙头位置。 分析指出,这是2017年以来,法国巴黎证券交易所首次在交易日收盘时,由",
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    "title": "日元让位 瑞士法郎与瑞典克朗跃升套利交易融资新宠",
    "shortTitle": "日元让位 瑞士法郎与瑞典克朗跃升套利交易融资新宠",
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    "description": "长期作为全球「套利交易」主要融资货币的日元吸引力渐失,市场投资人开始将目光转向瑞士法郎、瑞典克朗与加拿大元等低殖利率货币,寻找取代日元的新融资管道。",
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    "content": "<p>随着日本央行升息预期增温及政府进行汇市联合干预,长期作为全球「套利交易」主要融资货币的日元吸引力渐失。市场投资人开始将目光转向瑞士法郎、瑞典克朗与加拿大元等低殖利率货币,寻找取代日元的新融资管道。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6608236/l/ab7eb010e0fd2b58b193985805fab83b.jpg\" alt=\"日元让位 瑞士法郎与瑞典克朗跃升套利交易融资新宠\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<p>Russell Investments全球固定收益与外汇解决方案策略主管 Van Luu 表示:「投资人仍希望参与套利交易,但借入端的选择成为关键问题。」</p>\n\n<p>他指出,日本今年两度干预汇市并引导升息,显示当局偏好强势日元。相反地,瑞士预计将零利率维持至2027年底,并乐见瑞郎走软以支持出口。因此,从货币政策分歧与汇率角度来看,瑞士法郎已成为最具吸引力的融资货币。</p>\n\n<p>绩效表现也印证了此转变:自7月以来,以日元融资购买澳元的套利交易亏损了1.3%,远不及今年上半年的9%获利;反观以瑞郎融资的套利策略,在2026年整体回报率高达14%。</p>\n\n<p>伦敦 TJM 公司外汇销售与交易董事总经理 Neil Jones 观察指出:「抛售瑞郎并买进日元,正是融资货币发生长期转移的具体体现。」</p>\n\n<p>此外,摩根大通全球外汇策略共同主管 Meera Chandan 则推荐瑞典克朗与加拿大元,做为借入标的。她分析,与澳洲或新兴市场等高殖利率货币相比,克朗与加元存在显著的殖利率劣势,且对经济周期高度敏感,因此建议可相对于受美国联准会升息预期支撑的美元进行抛售。</p>\n\n<p>然而,这类替代策略仍存有风险,日元仍具备远高于其他同业货币的市场流动性。安联环球投资(AllianzGI)多重资产策略投资长 Greg Hirt 提醒,瑞郎作为传统避险资产,在面临地缘政治或欧洲政治风险(如法国与义大利选举)时易剧烈升值。</p>\n\n<p>他指出,在欧洲风险方面,瑞郎是相当标准的避险货币。如果法国确实出现问题,瑞郎将大幅走强。在套利交易极需汇率稳定的前提下,瑞郎的避险属性恐增添市场波动风险。</p>\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n  <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n  <ul>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-16123.html\" title=\"「大规模战争」跃居全球风险榜首!联合国发布全球风险报告\">「大规模战争」跃居全球风险榜首!联合国发布全球风险报告</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-16142.html\" title=\"欧盟拟推儿童法案 禁止13岁以下儿童使用社群媒体\">欧盟拟推儿童法案 禁止13岁以下儿童使用社群媒体</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-16124.html\" title=\"〈陆股盘后〉午后两市高档震荡 三大指数走高\">〈陆股盘后〉午后两市高档震荡 三大指数走高</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-16108.html\" title=\"港交所将推点心债指数 以巩固其离岸人民币枢纽地位\">港交所将推点心债指数 以巩固其离岸人民币枢纽地位</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-16085.html\" title=\"巴黎莱雅取代LVMH登法国股王 9年来首见非奢侈品称霸\">巴黎莱雅取代LVMH登法国股王 9年来首见非奢侈品称霸</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-16121.html\" title=\"高盛:美国企业债仍受追捧 投资人最深的担忧并未成真\">高盛:美国企业债仍受追捧 投资人最深的担忧并未成真</a></li>\n  </ul>\n</div>",
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