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10年美债殖利率重冲5%!贝莱德:市场恐过度解读 看好美国经济支撑亚洲基本面

2026-09-18 13:47:46 网络 阅读(1)

联准会(Fed)决议升息1码,尽管市场将声明解读为偏鹰派,并使 10 年期美国公债殖利率重新站上 5%,反映市场预期未来可能出现更多紧缩措施。与股市震荡,但全球资产管理巨头贝莱德最新观点指出,市场恐已「过度解读」紧缩讯号。贝莱德强调,本次升息核心在于展现美国经济的强劲韧性与重建政策公信力,而非开启长时间的升息循环;在稳健的美国经济支撑下,全球贸易与亚洲企业基本面依然看好,亚洲固定收益与多元资产仍深具投资吸引力。

10年美债殖利率重冲5%!贝莱德:市场恐过度解读 看好美国经济支撑亚洲基本面

贝莱德亚太区全球固定收益主管 Navin Saigal 表示,从韩国到澳洲,多数市场早已反映较高利率环境及更长的升息周期,这有利于收益型投资人发掘投资机会。此外,联准会升息反映出美国经济依然强劲且具韧性,这将持续支撑全球经济活动、贸易流动及亚洲企业基本面。目前亚洲各国通膨走势差异显著,中国与泰国面临通缩压力,澳洲与日本通膨高于目标,印度则维持在中段,各国货币政策周期持续分化,在地基本面的重要性来到多年高点,为投资人创造兼顾收益与分散配置的机会。

贝莱德智库(BlackRock Investment Institute)主管 Jean Boivin 则指出,年初时市场普遍预期联准会此刻应已降息,但在宏观环境变化下,FOMC最终一致决议升息。此举落实了主席华许在杰克森洞央行年会传达的讯息,以实际行动重新建立市场对新任主席的信心,美国长天期公债殖利率曲线趋平,显示投资人自7月以来要求的信誉风险溢酬正逐渐消退。

对于市场将记者会讯息解读为偏鹰派,带动股市回吐涨幅并使10年期美债殖利率重回5%,Boivin 认为市场可能过度解读。投资人应区分「为维持政策公信力所采取的行动」与「启动新一轮持续升息循环」之间的差异。在经济成长动能依然稳健的背景下,透过升息来强化政策公信力,未必对风险性资产不利,投资人可透过配置不同亚洲本地货币资产,降低对已开发市场殖利率上升的敏感度,掌握多元且稳定的收益来源。

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      "shortTitle": "日本央行料升息至1.25% 利率创31年新高 未来终点受瞩",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6609614/l/4c7d8960a8da4f39b36d72f69dade414.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-09-17T23:40:07.000Z",
      "description": "日本央行(BOJ)预计周五(18日)将政策利率由1%上调25个基点至1.25%, 创下1995年以来最高水准, 也是3个月来首次升息。市场同时关注总裁植田和男会后记者会, 寻找央行未来升息时程与幅度的线索。 这次升息若如预期落实, 将是日本央行进一步退出长达数十年超宽松货币政策的重要一步。1.25%的政策利率也将进入日本央行估计的名目中性利率1.1%至2.5%区间, 即理论上既不刺激也不抑制经济成长的利率水准, 因而市场将更加关注未来最终利率可能升至何处。 路透调查显示, 经济学家普遍预期日本央",
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    {
      "id": 16420,
      "title": "中国机上盒将退场 推一体化电视、一键就能看频道",
      "shortTitle": "中国机上盒将退场 推一体化电视、一键就能看频道",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6609705/l/5dc0870fc7071b3e6035d13e6119d2b6.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-09-18T01:20:44.000Z",
      "description": "中国国家广播电视总局宣布,今年将制定一体化电视技术标准,把机上盒功能以软体形式内建于电视,搭配通用遥控器,实现一键开关机、一键收看频道。随着外置机上盒逐步退场,电视将告别繁复操作,重新回归「开机即用」的本分。 机上盒谢幕,是一场历时三年多、横跨市场整治与产业升级的改革收官。 过去,看电视经常面临「套娃式收费」与操作复杂等问题,包括开机先播放数十秒广告、进入介面后找不到直播入口,以及收费方案层层嵌套,尤其让老年用户无所适从。 2023年8月起,广电总局联合工信部、市场监管总局等部门展开专案治理,要",
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      "title": "日本10年债殖利率飙破3% 贝森特「逼宫」日本大撒钱 要求升息、收敛财政支出",
      "shortTitle": "日本10年债殖利率飙破3% 贝森特「逼宫」日本大撒钱 要求升",
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      "createdAt": "2026-09-18T01:10:04.000Z",
      "description": "美国财政部长贝森特(Scott Bessent)近几个月持续向日本政府施压,要求东京控制大规模财政支出、让日本央行加快升息,以遏制日元疲弱与通膨压力。路透引述3名知情人士指出,当日本财务大臣片山皐月(Satsuki Katayama)今年6月22日致电贝森特,希望美国协助支撑大幅走贬的日元时,贝森特反而要求日本先处理财政政策问题,并避免货币与财政政策相互矛盾。 这通此前未被公开报导的电话,成为美日两国7月底大规模联手干预汇市的前奏。日本方面原本担心日元疲弱推高通膨,进而伤害首相高市早苗的政治支持",
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      "title": "植田谈话恐令市场失望?日银利率决议出炉前夕 富国银行高调做空日元、花旗估将跌向159",
      "shortTitle": "植田谈话恐令市场失望?日银利率决议出炉前夕 富国银行高调做空",
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      "createdAt": "2026-09-18T00:50:02.000Z",
      "description": "日本央行(BOJ)公布最新利率决议前夕,外汇策略师普遍预期「升息容易、表态难鹰」,日元短线偏向贬值。掉期市场数据几乎完全计入升息1码,焦点转向BOJ总裁植田和男记者会对后续节奏的指引。日元在今日亚洲汇市早盘小贬约0.1%至156.15。 富国银行策略师Chidu Narayanan表示,BOJ要达到甚至超越市场鹰派预期「门槛​​很高」,会议结果若仅兑现升息、不明示连续紧缩,风险倾向偏鸽,建议做空日元。 ING Bank NV的G10外汇策略主管Chris Turner预估,若BOJ未能释放进一步",
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      "description": "美国总统川普预定下周在华府接待中国国家主席习近平。随着 9 月 24 日川习会倒数,台湾与日本正密切关注川普是否可能调整对台立场,以换取北京在采购美国商品等经贸议题上让步。 《路透社》访问台北、东京与华府的政府官员、议员及分析人士。受访者指出,习近平可望在峰会上再次提出台湾问题,即使美方只是微调既有外交措辞,也可能被北京解读为华府立场松动,进而影响台海稳定。 亚洲协会政策研究所政治安全事务主任 Emma Chanlett-Avery 表示,美国盟友对华府的中国政策走向深感不安,任何美方在台湾议题",
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      "id": 16433,
      "title": "不甩川普关税威胁 加拿大靠拢欧盟:没人能支配我们",
      "shortTitle": "不甩川普关税威胁 加拿大靠拢欧盟:没人能支配我们",
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      "description": "加拿大总理卡尼周四(17日)在欧洲议会发表演说,虽未点名美国总统川普,但直言「没有人能够支配我们的文化,或决定我们与谁达成国际协议」,被视为回应川普的关税威胁。 与此同时,卡尼公开欢迎欧盟邀请加拿大成为首个「联合成员」,并强调加拿大与欧洲团结将更加强大。 欧盟执委会主席冯德莱恩前一天向加拿大抛出橄榄枝,提出让加拿大成为欧盟首个「联合成员」。川普随后面对记者嘲讽这项构想「可笑」,并扬言将对欧洲课征非常高的关税。欧盟方面则未立即作出明显回应。 川普第二任期以来,以「美国优先」为政策主轴,陆续对多项加",
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      "createdAt": "2026-09-18T03:45:37.000Z",
      "description": "日本银行(央行, BOJ)周五(18日)升息1码(25个基点)至1.25%,利率站上1995年以来最高,象征日银升息循环加速。但由于决策早在市场意料之中,声明中也没有出现更鹰派字眼,日元兑美元应声走软。 此举也意味着,日银于2024年3月展开货币政策正常化以来,升息周期正在加速:本次升息距离与上回升息只相差三个月,是1990年以来最短间隔,相较之下,前一次升息间隔为六个月。 日银在声明中表示,本次升息是因为通膨有偏离并超过2%目标的风险。 日银加速升息,凸显全球货币政策主管机关正忙于因应伊朗战争",
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      "createdAt": "2026-09-18T02:56:06.000Z",
      "description": "第一银行积极落实金管会「信托业务发展策略蓝图」政策,推动信托服务融入民众日常生活。第一银行昨(17)日宣布携手三信商业银行及中国医药大学附设医院,共同签署首家医院「信托资讯交换平台特约机构资讯传输合作契约」,率先推动「信托Pay」于医疗场域应用,开启信托数位支付新里程。这象征信托服务正式从传统资产管理延伸至生活支付,进一步提升信托服务的便利性与普惠价值。 为提供客户熟悉且便利的支付体验,第一银行于信托Pay服务采用动态QR Code支付模式,结合行动装置应用,并成为首批完成该模式介接测试的参与银",
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      "shortTitle": "AI算力投资还没到顶!摩根大通:半导体设备将成2027年「新",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6609793/l/2a9592f8199ff58a501c719b447e37ab.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-09-18T04:10:03.000Z",
      "description": "市场近期对AI基础设施投资的信心出现动摇。开源大模型的崛起、AI安全监管呼声升温,以及超大规模云端业者自由现金流转负——三重压力叠加,令科技硬体板块情绪持续低迷。 摩根大通分析师Gokul Hariharan等人在最新的亚洲科技策略报告中,对上述三大疑虑逐一作出回应,结论是:算力需求的基本面并未动摇,AI安全监管担忧属短期扰动,资本支出周期仍将延续,半导体设备将在2027年前后成为整条供应链最关键的瓶颈。 1、AI基础设施投资远未到顶 市场近期对AI基础设施投资出现三重担",
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    "description": "联准会(Fed)决议升息1码,尽管市场将声明解读为偏鹰派,并使 10 年期美国公债殖利率重新站上 5%,反映市场预期未来可能出现更多紧缩措施。与股市震荡,但全球资产管理巨头贝莱德最新观点指出,市场恐已「过度解读」紧缩讯号。贝莱德强调,本次升息核心在于展现美国经济的强劲韧性与重建政策公信力,而非开启长时间的升息循环;在稳健的美国经济支撑下,全球贸易与亚洲企业基本面依然看好,亚洲固定收益与多元资产仍深具投资吸引力。 贝莱德亚太区全球固定收益主管 Navin Saigal",
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    "content": "<p>联准会(Fed)决议升息1码,尽管市场将声明解读为偏鹰派,并使 10 年期美国公债殖利率重新站上 5%,反映市场预期未来可能出现更多紧缩措施。与股市震荡,但全球资产管理巨头贝莱德最新观点指出,市场恐已「过度解读」紧缩讯号。贝莱德强调,本次升息核心在于展现美国经济的强劲韧性与重建政策公信力,而非开启长时间的升息循环;在稳健的美国经济支撑下,全球贸易与亚洲企业基本面依然看好,亚洲固定收益与多元资产仍深具投资吸引力。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6609201/l/e3862d9dbc73e688c1c7266a1afd6dd4.jpg\" alt=\"10年美债殖利率重冲5%!贝莱德:市场恐过度解读 看好美国经济支撑亚洲基本面\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<p>贝莱德亚太区全球固定收益主管 Navin Saigal 表示,从韩国到澳洲,多数市场早已反映较高利率环境及更长的升息周期,这有利于收益型投资人发掘投资机会。此外,联准会升息反映出美国经济依然强劲且具韧性,这将持续支撑全球经济活动、贸易流动及亚洲企业基本面。目前亚洲各国通膨走势差异显著,中国与泰国面临通缩压力,澳洲与日本通膨高于目标,印度则维持在中段,各国货币政策周期持续分化,在地基本面的重要性来到多年高点,为投资人创造兼顾收益与分散配置的机会。</p>\n\n<p>贝莱德智库(BlackRock Investment Institute)主管 Jean Boivin 则指出,年初时市场普遍预期联准会此刻应已降息,但在宏观环境变化下,FOMC最终一致决议升息。此举落实了主席华许在杰克森洞央行年会传达的讯息,以实际行动重新建立市场对新任主席的信心,美国长天期公债殖利率曲线趋平,显示投资人自7月以来要求的信誉风险溢酬正逐渐消退。</p>\n\n<p>对于市场将记者会讯息解读为偏鹰派,带动股市回吐涨幅并使10年期美债殖利率重回5%,Boivin 认为市场可能过度解读。投资人应区分「为维持政策公信力所采取的行动」与「启动新一轮持续升息循环」之间的差异。在经济成长动能依然稳健的背景下,透过升息来强化政策公信力,未必对风险性资产不利,投资人可透过配置不同亚洲本地货币资产,降低对已开发市场殖利率上升的敏感度,掌握多元且稳定的收益来源。</p><div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n  <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n  <ul>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-16481.html\" title=\"中国住建部:房地产正式迈入「存量时代」 现房销售是大势所趋\">中国住建部:房地产正式迈入「存量时代」 现房销售是大势所趋</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-16402.html\" title=\"日本央行料升息至1.25% 利率创31年新高 未来终点受瞩\">日本央行料升息至1.25% 利率创31年新高 未来终点受瞩</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-16420.html\" title=\"中国机上盒将退场 推一体化电视、一键就能看频道\">中国机上盒将退场 推一体化电视、一键就能看频道</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-16422.html\" title=\"植田谈话恐令市场失望?日银利率决议出炉前夕 富国银行高调做空日元、花旗估将跌向159\">植田谈话恐令市场失望?日银利率决议出炉前夕 富国银行高调做空日元、花旗估将跌向159</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-16448.html\" title=\"一银安养信托规模破420亿居冠!携手中医大附医首推医院「信托Pay」\">一银安养信托规模破420亿居冠!携手中医大附医首推医院「信托Pay」</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-16432.html\" title=\"川习会台湾成焦点 美国盟友紧盯川普出牌\">川习会台湾成焦点 美国盟友紧盯川普出牌</a></li>\n  </ul>\n</div>",
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    "createdAt": "2026-09-18T04:55:37.000Z",
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