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"title": "逾20年历史时刻是否会重演？前次泡沫前入场要花15年才解套",
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"description": "美股那指、标普500逼近历史高点，作者警告泡沫顶峰进场恐付长期代价 CAPE ratio升至41，远高于17.4平均值，仅次1999年网路泡沫高点44 AI浪潮虽由辉达、美光高获利支撑，但OpenAI亏损、资金需求庞大，估值恐受冲击",
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"content": "<p>由生成式AI带动的美股那斯达克与标普500指数，近期再度逼近历史新高。对此，财经专栏作者Will Ebiefung警告，投资人在股市泡沫顶峰进场可能付出长期代价，若在2000年3月网路泡沫高点投资那斯达克综合指数，需耗费长达15年(直到2015年4月)才得以收回本金。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6613242/l/237d21a0385c214e73ce87f4ed71697e.jpg\" alt=\"逾20年历史时刻是否会重演？前次泡沫前入场要花15年才解套\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<p>Ebiefung分析指出，目前美股正重演令人担忧的历史模式。衡量股市长期估值的「周期调整本益比」(CAPE ratio)已攀升至41，远高于17.4的历史平均值，更是历史上仅次于1999年网路泡沫高点44的第二高水准。</p>\n\n<p>不过Ebiefung也指出，本次状况与网路泡沫并不完全相同，当时是由未获利的科技公司推动，而当前的AI浪潮则由辉达(NVDA-US)与美光(MU-US)等具备高获利与高毛利率(分别达75%与85%)的巨头支撑。</p>\n\n<p>然而，Ebiefung强调，这些硬体基础设施厂商的庞大利润基石并不稳固。作为其客户的前沿AI模型开发商，目前正面临剧烈竞争、监管不确定性及成本暴增等难题，商业变现模式尚未成熟。</p>\n\n<p>以龙头业者OpenAI为例，内部泄露文件显示其2025年营收虽达130亿美元，但因研发开支庞大导致亏损高达210亿美元；管理层更预估至2030年底前需消耗近2,800亿美元资金，主要用于算力与基础建设。若华尔街对此类前沿模型公司的资金支持减退，加上中国低价竞争对手的追赶，高估值恐难维持。</p>\n\n<p>除了产业内部隐忧，Ebiefung进一步提出宏观政经风险，指出川普政府实施的全面关税政策，以及在中东军事行动引发荷姆兹海峡部分封锁，推升了通膨压力。这迫使美国联准会(Fed)将目标利率升至3.75%至4.00%区间，美国10年期公债殖利率也逼近5%。</p>\n\n<p>殖利率上升推高了整体资金成本，使AI企业建置资料中心的融资成本大幅增加，同时投资人要求更高的回报率，双重压力可能加速科技股估值修正。</p>\n\n<p>Ebiefung建议，投资人应透过多元化配置非科技领域的投资组合，以防范潜在的市场震荡。</p>\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-16954.html\" title=\"〈陆股盘后〉习近平应邀本周访美 三大指数涨跌互见\">〈陆股盘后〉习近平应邀本周访美 三大指数涨跌互见</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-16999.html\" title=\"中国制造业步步进逼！德国企业受重创 BMW却反对加关税\">中国制造业步步进逼！德国企业受重创 BMW却反对加关税</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-17005.html\" title=\"俄油不是想换就换！戴蒙警告美国别拿印度与全球油市开刀\">俄油不是想换就换！戴蒙警告美国别拿印度与全球油市开刀</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-16953.html\" title=\"沙国红海延布港传将恢复装油 亚洲油轮蓄势待发\">沙国红海延布港传将恢复装油 亚洲油轮蓄势待发</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-16968.html\" title=\"川习二会本周华府登场！关税休战可望延长 AI安全与300亿美元降税成重头戏\">川习二会本周华府登场！关税休战可望延长 AI安全与300亿美元降税成重头戏</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-17003.html\" title=\"官股「私银」开张了！台银高资产业务今上线 首推「黄金现货指定保管」\">官股「私银」开张了！台银高资产业务今上线 首推「黄金现货指定保管」</a></li>\n </ul>\n</div>",
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