天天财经-提供金融入门知识-投资理财技巧-战争持续近7个月！伊朗迎来罕见机会：总统联大演说向全球发声

美伊领导人同聚纽约：联大提供讲台，却难单独打开谈判之门

战争持续近7个月！伊朗迎来罕见机会：总统联大演说向全球发声

伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬预计在美东时间周三(23日)上午(台湾时间周三晚间)在一般性辩论中发表演说。这是战争爆发近七个月以来，伊朗最高层级官员获得的少数可直接面向全球领导人及美国舆论发声的机会。

美国总统川普上周日(20日)接受《福斯新闻》采访时表示，不排除在纽约与佩泽希齐扬会面，但会面仍存变数。

《路透社》周二(22日)引述伊朗高官谈话报导指出，佩泽希齐扬不会在纽约联合国总部与美国总统川普会面。

中东战场与航道受阻仍带来压力。美以对伊朗发动打击初期曾遭部分国家批评，但伊朗限制荷姆兹海峡航运、区域能源供应受冲击，加上叶门胡塞武装扩大针对沙乌地阿拉伯与红海航运的行动，德黑兰同样承受越来越大的外交压力。荷姆兹海峡与曼德海峡同时受扰，已直接影响全球石油、天然气与成品油运输。

川普的公开表态仍是「谈判与威慑并行」。他表示，自己正就伊朗问题进入「决策阶段」，未来可能发生「非常重大的事情」，并把摆在德黑兰面前的选项概括为彻底消灭、任其经济衰败或达成协议。

伊朗最高国家安全委员会秘书雷札伊上周六(19日)表示，德黑兰已向华府转达重启谈判的七项条件，目前等待川普回应。伊朗伊斯兰议会议长卡利巴夫隔天重申，在条件满足前不会恢复谈判，荷姆兹海峡也不会重新开放。七项条件包括结束所有战线战事、不得干涉伊朗内政、不得与伊国内反对势力勾结、解冻伊朗资产、解除海上封锁等。

伊朗开出条件的同时，也留下了时间窗口。《路透社》周二(22日)引述伊朗高官谈话报导指出，若美国减轻军事压力并解除海上封锁，伊朗可在7天内重新开放荷姆木兹海峡；伊朗上周三(16日)已通过调解方递交提议，出席联大的代表团拥有恢复外交管道的全部授权，「联合国大会是美国重返外交的黄金机遇」。

卡达仍是关键的第三方通道。过去几周，多哈持续与美伊沟通推动复谈，多名美国官员称希望达成协议、结束冲突。卡达首相兼外交大臣穆罕默德在纽约卡达经济论坛上警告，局势不能再出现「升级循环」，区域持久安全需建立在尊重各国主权的框架之上。

佩泽希齐扬此趟纽约行的意义，更在于测试管道而非签署协议。他出发前表示，将在联合国舞台坚定维护伊朗立场、向世界展示实力，并讲述「伊朗人民冤屈」。去年，他出席联大时曾把美以军事行动称为对外交努力的破坏，并强调伊朗核计划并非以获取核武器为目标。

按计划，佩泽希齐扬除演讲外还将与多国领导人会面，并与在美伊朗人士、美国学者及智库代表交流。对长期主张缓和制裁的佩泽希齐扬而言，这是一种绕过中断的官方管道、直接向美欧政策圈传递立场的方式。

联合国秘书长古特雷斯则淡化出现突破性协议的可能性，认为美伊及伊朗与波斯湾国家之间需要更有系统的对话，正式谈判更可能在其他地点展开。双方在限制核子能力、恢复荷姆兹海峡通航、削弱地区盟友军事活动、胡塞武装及停火协议责任等议题上差距明显。

对佩泽希齐扬而言，真正的考题是同时回答两点：德黑兰为何认为继续维持军事与航运压力具有合理性，以及在何种条件下愿意接受一项能够恢复区域内能源运输的政治安排。

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auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬预计在美东时间周三(23日)上午(台湾时间周三晚间)在一般性辩论中发表演说。这是战争爆发近七个月以来，伊朗最高层级官员获得的少数可直接面向全球领导人及美国舆论发声的机会。\n\n美国总统川普上周日(20日)接受《福斯新闻》采访时表示，不排除在纽约与佩泽希齐扬会面，但会面仍存变数。\n\n《路透社》周二(22日)引述伊朗高官谈话报导指出，佩泽希齐扬不会在纽约联合国总部与美国总统川普会面。\n\n中东战场与航道受阻仍带来压力。美以对伊朗发动打击初期曾遭部分国家批评，但伊朗限制荷姆兹海峡航运、区域能源供应受冲击，加上叶门胡塞武装扩大针对沙乌地阿拉伯与红海航运的行动，德黑兰同样承受越来越大的外交压力。荷姆兹海峡与曼德海峡同时受扰，已直接影响全球石油、天然气与成品油运输。\n\n川普的公开表态仍是「谈判与威慑并行」。他表示，自己正就伊朗问题进入「决策阶段」，未来可能发生「非常重大的事情」，并把摆在德黑兰面前的选项概括为彻底消灭、任其经济衰败或达成协议。\n\n伊朗最高国家安全委员会秘书雷札伊上周六(19日)表示，德黑兰已向华府转达重启谈判的七项条件，目前等待川普回应。伊朗伊斯兰议会议长卡利巴夫隔天重申，在条件满足前不会恢复谈判，荷姆兹海峡也不会重新开放。七项条件包括结束所有战线战事、不得干涉伊朗内政、不得与伊国内反对势力勾结、解冻伊朗资产、解除海上封锁等。\n\n伊朗开出条件的同时，也留下了时间窗口。《路透社》周二(22日)引述伊朗高官谈话报导指出，若美国减轻军事压力并解除海上封锁，伊朗可在7天内重新开放荷姆木兹海峡；伊朗上周三(16日)已通过调解方递交提议，出席联大的代表团拥有恢复外交管道的全部授权，「联合国大会是美国重返外交的黄金机遇」。\n\n卡达仍是关键的第三方通道。过去几周，多哈持续与美伊沟通推动复谈，多名美国官员称希望达成协议、结束冲突。卡达首相兼外交大臣穆罕默德在纽约卡达经济论坛上警告，局势不能再出现「升级循环」，区域持久安全需建立在尊重各国主权的框架之上。\n\n佩泽希齐扬此趟纽约行的意义，更在于测试管道而非签署协议。他出发前表示，将在联合国舞台坚定维护伊朗立场、向世界展示实力，并讲述「伊朗人民冤屈」。去年，他出席联大时曾把美以军事行动称为对外交努力的破坏，并强调伊朗核计划并非以获取核武器为目标。\n\n按计划，佩泽希齐扬除演讲外还将与多国领导人会面，并与在美伊朗人士、美国学者及智库代表交流。对长期主张缓和制裁的佩泽希齐扬而言，这是一种绕过中断的官方管道、直接向美欧政策圈传递立场的方式。\n\n联合国秘书长古特雷斯则淡化出现突破性协议的可能性，认为美伊及伊朗与波斯湾国家之间需要更有系统的对话，正式谈判更可能在其他地点展开。双方在限制核子能力、恢复荷姆兹海峡通航、削弱地区盟友军事活动、胡塞武装及停火协议责任等议题上差距明显。\n\n对佩泽希齐扬而言，真正的考题是同时回答两点：德黑兰为何认为继续维持军事与航运压力具有合理性，以及在何种条件下愿意接受一项能够恢复区域内能源运输的政治安排。\n<div 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