天天财经-提供金融入门知识-投资理财技巧-比特币迎150亿美元选择权结算或影响牛市是否持续

比特币迎150亿美元选择权结算或影响牛市是否持续

2026-09-24 16:21:18 网络阅读（1）
加密货币衍生性商品交易所 Deribit 预计周五(25日)迎来约 150 亿美元的季度比特币选择权合约到期，金额占 Deribit 总未平仓合约量的三分之一以上，交易员关注这一重头戏对市场价格可能的影响。
比特币迎150亿美元选择权结算或影响牛市是否持续
目前市场的卖权/买权比率(Put-to-Call Ratio)为 0.70，显示押注价格上涨的看涨买权居多，主要集中在 8.5 万、9 万及 10 万美元的履约价。
目前比特币交易价格约在 84,000 美元，远高于「最大痛点」价格(Max Pain Level)的 76,000 美元。自 8 月美债买回计划推升风险资产以来，比特币已累积上涨超过 30%。然而，由于交易商需进行避险操作，当价格逼近 90,000 至 95,000 美元时可能抛售资产以维持中立，进而在结算前压抑涨幅。
针对后市发展与结算影响，Orbit Markets 共同创办人 Caroline Mauron 表示：「避险活动可能在选择权到期前压抑涨势，一旦这批选择权结算或转仓至下一季，市场动能便有机会恢复。」
加密货币借贷平台 Ledn 共同创办人 Mauricio Di Bartolomeo 指出，上周贝莱德 IBIT 选择权到期逼使交易商买进股票避险，带动现货市场。他补充说：「如果涨势持续，Deribit 帐本上 8.5 万与 10 万美元的大型买权区块，将触发相同的推升机制。」
Wintermute 柜台交易主管 Jake Ostrovskis 指出，部位正在转仓，许多交易员选择将 10 月与 12 月的买权履约价设在 9.5 万至 10 万美元，甚至有远期押注看好 2027 年 3 月达 15 万美元。
Tesseract Group 行销主管 Oliver Carding 提醒，由于合约空方背景未知，单凭结算规模无法决定价格去向，并强调：「我会将这次到期视为部位调整与转仓事件，而非决定方向的关键因素。」
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