天天财经-提供金融入门知识-投资理财技巧-〈能源盘后〉多空拉锯！俄美柴油协议遇上中东战火油市涨跌互现

国际油价周二 (13日) 收盘涨跌互见，市场一方面评估美国与俄罗斯柴油供应协议可能增加全球燃料供应，另一方面则关注沙乌地阿拉伯与叶门胡塞武装冲突升高，以及荷姆兹海峡周边能源设施和油轮面临的安全风险。

〈能源盘后〉多空拉锯！俄美柴油协议遇上中东战火油市涨跌互现

布兰特原油 (Brent) 期货下跌0.96美元或0.9%, 收在每桶105.69美元；美国西德州中级原油 (WTI) 期货则上涨0.40美元或0.4%, 收在每桶94.14美元。

布兰特原油前一交易日收在9月15日以来最高水准, WTI则升至9月24日以来最高收盘价。远期合约也持续走强, WTI 2027年期货连续第12个交易日创下纪录高点, 触及每桶84美元；布兰特原油2027年期货则于周一连续第4个交易日刷新纪录, 升至每桶90美元。远期价格走高反映市场仍担心未来供应紧张, 即使短期原油价格受到俄罗斯柴油可能增加供应的消息牵动。

美国总统川普表示, 俄罗斯已同意恢复柴油出口, 以增加全球市场供应。不过, 川普指出, 俄罗斯柴油主要是供应全球其他市场, 并非直接供应美国。美国柴油期货周二上涨约5%, 显示市场对协议能否有效缓解燃料供应短缺仍抱持疑虑。

根据《华尔街日报》报导, 川普所公布的供应规模相当于俄罗斯10月每日出口略高于10万桶柴油, 11月则约每日12.5万桶, 并预计之后增加供应。相比之下, 俄罗斯去年柴油出口量约每日80万桶, 显示目前承诺增加的供应规模仍有限。美国柴油零售价格周一平均约每加仑6.27美元, 虽低于上月创下的6.53美元纪录, 但仍较去年同期高出71%。

柴油供应紧张与俄乌战争及中东冲突有关。乌克兰持续攻击俄罗斯能源设施, 降低俄国炼油与燃料出口能力；美国与以色列对伊朗发动攻击后, 中东燃料出口及航运也受到干扰, 进一步推高全球柴油价格。美国炼油厂虽增加柴油出口, 但产能已接近上限, 难以完全填补全球供应缺口。

俄罗斯克里姆林宫周二表示, 不认为对美出口柴油的协议与莫斯科在乌克兰和平谈判中的立场存在直接关联。此番回应源自路透社先前报导, 指川普特使上周五曾告诉乌克兰官员, 允许俄罗斯出口柴油是美方试图让莫斯科重新参与乌克兰和平谈判的一部分。川普则表示, 美国仍持续与基辅分享情报, 同时施压乌克兰停止攻击俄罗斯炼油设施。

俄罗斯在2025年是全球第3大原油生产国, 排名仅次于美国与沙乌地阿拉伯。自2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后, 西方国家对俄罗斯能源实施制裁, 限制俄国石油及燃料进入全球市场, 也使国际能源供应更容易受到地缘政治事件影响。若俄乌战争达成协议, 俄罗斯能源出口可能进一步增加, 但柴油供应协议能否促成更广泛的和平谈判, 目前仍不明朗。

中东局势则持续构成油价上行风险。与伊朗结盟的叶门胡塞武装表示, 沙乌地阿拉伯周二对叶门首都沙那发动攻击。沙乌地领导的联军此前警告平民远离沙那郊区一座油品储存设施, 随后当地传出空袭消息。这场冲突快速升温, 使市场担心能源设施遭到破坏, 进一步影响区域燃料供应。

周末期间, 胡塞武装对沙乌地阿拉伯利雅德国际机场发动攻击, 荷姆兹海峡附近也传出油轮遇袭事件。路透社引述6名消息人士指出, 沙乌地阿拉伯国家石油公司沙乌地阿美 (Saudi Aramco) 总部所在的达兰附近也传出巨大爆炸声。这些事件加深市场对波斯湾能源设施与航运通道安全的忧虑。

川普周二指控胡塞武装刻意推高油价, 并警告不会忘记该组织对沙乌地阿拉伯发动的攻击。随着美国对伊朗战争扩大区域冲突, 市场担心能源供应中断风险将持续存在, 特别是荷姆兹海峡的航运若进一步受阻, 将对全球原油与成品油供应造成重大冲击。

在美国与以色列于2月对伊朗发动攻击前, 全球约20%的石油供应会经由荷姆兹海峡运输。这条航道是中东能源出口的重要枢纽, 一旦油轮通行受到限制, 即使产油国提高产量, 也未必能迅速弥补运输受阻造成的缺口。

石油输出国组织及盟国 (OPEC+) 周二公布的数据显示, 9月产量大幅增加, 主要来自沙乌地阿拉伯增产。这显示产油国仍试图提高供应, 但中东冲突造成的运输风险, 可能抵销部分增产带来的缓解效果。OPEC+成员包括OPEC产油国及俄罗斯等盟国。

OPEC同时连续第6个月下调2026年全球石油需求成长预测, 并上调2027年需求成长预测。该组织指出, 伊朗战争导致全球石油库存消耗, 未来市场需要重新补充库存, 因此中长期需求前景仍受到补库需求支撑。OPEC秘书长海赛姆・盖斯 (Haitham Al Ghais) 先前表示, 组织已将2026年石油需求成长预测由年初的每日140万桶下调至每日40万桶, 反映今年经济与能源市场变化。

整体而言, 国际油市目前同时受到供应增加与供应中断风险影响。俄罗斯柴油出口若逐步恢复, 有望缓解部分成品油短缺, 但目前承诺的供应规模相对有限；另一方面, 沙乌地阿拉伯与胡塞武装冲突、荷姆兹海峡航运风险及俄乌战争持续, 仍可能让原油与柴油供应维持紧绷。后续油价走势将取决于俄罗斯实际出口量、中东能源运输是否恢复稳定, 以及OPEC+增产能否抵销地缘政治风险带来的供应损失。

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沙乌地与胡塞冲突升温、荷姆兹海峡油轮遇袭；OPEC+ 9月增产，但运输风险仍支撑油价", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6629753/l/86c82c92768924ead99dd5d5dd77b2ab.jpg", "content": "国际油价周二 (13日) 收盘涨跌互见，市场一方面评估美国与俄罗斯柴油供应协议可能增加全球燃料供应，另一方面则关注沙乌地阿拉伯与叶门胡塞武装冲突升高，以及荷姆兹海峡周边能源设施和油轮面临的安全风险。\n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6629753/l/86c82c92768924ead99dd5d5dd77b2ab.jpg\" alt=\"〈能源盘后〉多空拉锯！俄美柴油协议遇上中东战火油市涨跌互现\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n布兰特原油 (Brent) 期货下跌0.96美元或0.9%, 收在每桶105.69美元；美国西德州中级原油 (WTI) 期货则上涨0.40美元或0.4%, 收在每桶94.14美元。\n\n布兰特原油前一交易日收在9月15日以来最高水准, WTI则升至9月24日以来最高收盘价。远期合约也持续走强, WTI 2027年期货连续第12个交易日创下纪录高点, 触及每桶84美元；布兰特原油2027年期货则于周一连续第4个交易日刷新纪录, 升至每桶90美元。远期价格走高反映市场仍担心未来供应紧张, 即使短期原油价格受到俄罗斯柴油可能增加供应的消息牵动。\n\n美国总统川普表示, 俄罗斯已同意恢复柴油出口, 以增加全球市场供应。不过, 川普指出, 俄罗斯柴油主要是供应全球其他市场, 并非直接供应美国。美国柴油期货周二上涨约5%, 显示市场对协议能否有效缓解燃料供应短缺仍抱持疑虑。\n\n根据《华尔街日报》报导, 川普所公布的供应规模相当于俄罗斯10月每日出口略高于10万桶柴油, 11月则约每日12.5万桶, 并预计之后增加供应。相比之下, 俄罗斯去年柴油出口量约每日80万桶, 显示目前承诺增加的供应规模仍有限。美国柴油零售价格周一平均约每加仑6.27美元, 虽低于上月创下的6.53美元纪录, 但仍较去年同期高出71%。\n\n柴油供应紧张与俄乌战争及中东冲突有关。乌克兰持续攻击俄罗斯能源设施, 降低俄国炼油与燃料出口能力；美国与以色列对伊朗发动攻击后, 中东燃料出口及航运也受到干扰, 进一步推高全球柴油价格。美国炼油厂虽增加柴油出口, 但产能已接近上限, 难以完全填补全球供应缺口。\n\n俄罗斯克里姆林宫周二表示, 不认为对美出口柴油的协议与莫斯科在乌克兰和平谈判中的立场存在直接关联。此番回应源自路透社先前报导, 指川普特使上周五曾告诉乌克兰官员, 允许俄罗斯出口柴油是美方试图让莫斯科重新参与乌克兰和平谈判的一部分。川普则表示, 美国仍持续与基辅分享情报, 同时施压乌克兰停止攻击俄罗斯炼油设施。\n\n俄罗斯在2025年是全球第3大原油生产国, 排名仅次于美国与沙乌地阿拉伯。自2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后, 西方国家对俄罗斯能源实施制裁, 限制俄国石油及燃料进入全球市场, 也使国际能源供应更容易受到地缘政治事件影响。若俄乌战争达成协议, 俄罗斯能源出口可能进一步增加, 但柴油供应协议能否促成更广泛的和平谈判, 目前仍不明朗。\n\n中东局势则持续构成油价上行风险。与伊朗结盟的叶门胡塞武装表示, 沙乌地阿拉伯周二对叶门首都沙那发动攻击。沙乌地领导的联军此前警告平民远离沙那郊区一座油品储存设施, 随后当地传出空袭消息。这场冲突快速升温, 使市场担心能源设施遭到破坏, 进一步影响区域燃料供应。\n\n周末期间, 胡塞武装对沙乌地阿拉伯利雅德国际机场发动攻击, 荷姆兹海峡附近也传出油轮遇袭事件。路透社引述6名消息人士指出, 沙乌地阿拉伯国家石油公司沙乌地阿美 (Saudi Aramco) 总部所在的达兰附近也传出巨大爆炸声。这些事件加深市场对波斯湾能源设施与航运通道安全的忧虑。\n\n川普周二指控胡塞武装刻意推高油价, 并警告不会忘记该组织对沙乌地阿拉伯发动的攻击。随着美国对伊朗战争扩大区域冲突, 市场担心能源供应中断风险将持续存在, 特别是荷姆兹海峡的航运若进一步受阻, 将对全球原油与成品油供应造成重大冲击。\n\n在美国与以色列于2月对伊朗发动攻击前, 全球约20%的石油供应会经由荷姆兹海峡运输。这条航道是中东能源出口的重要枢纽, 一旦油轮通行受到限制, 即使产油国提高产量, 也未必能迅速弥补运输受阻造成的缺口。\n\n石油输出国组织及盟国 (OPEC+) 周二公布的数据显示, 9月产量大幅增加, 主要来自沙乌地阿拉伯增产。这显示产油国仍试图提高供应, 但中东冲突造成的运输风险, 可能抵销部分增产带来的缓解效果。OPEC+成员包括OPEC产油国及俄罗斯等盟国。\n\nOPEC同时连续第6个月下调2026年全球石油需求成长预测, 并上调2027年需求成长预测。该组织指出, 伊朗战争导致全球石油库存消耗, 未来市场需要重新补充库存, 因此中长期需求前景仍受到补库需求支撑。OPEC秘书长海赛姆・盖斯 (Haitham Al Ghais) 先前表示, 组织已将2026年石油需求成长预测由年初的每日140万桶下调至每日40万桶, 反映今年经济与能源市场变化。\n\n整体而言, 国际油市目前同时受到供应增加与供应中断风险影响。俄罗斯柴油出口若逐步恢复, 有望缓解部分成品油短缺, 但目前承诺的供应规模相对有限；另一方面, 沙乌地阿拉伯与胡塞武装冲突、荷姆兹海峡航运风险及俄乌战争持续, 仍可能让原油与柴油供应维持紧绷。后续油价走势将取决于俄罗斯实际出口量、中东能源运输是否恢复稳定, 以及OPEC+增产能否抵销地缘政治风险带来的供应损失。\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-20048.html\" title=\"晶片股抛售潮席卷亚洲韩股暴跌触发暂停交易亚股周二全线收低\">晶片股抛售潮席卷亚洲韩股暴跌触发暂停交易亚股周二全线收低</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-20059.html\" title=\"日本央行本月倾向暂缓升息最快12月再度调升利率\">日本央行本月倾向暂缓升息最快12月再度调升利率</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-20049.html\" title=\"美国主导世界的时代结束了前英国首相称川普只是征兆、不是原因\">美国主导世界的时代结束了前英国首相称川普只是征兆、不是原因</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-20115.html\" title=\"〈贵金属盘后〉金价走低投资人观望CPI报告和华许演说\">〈贵金属盘后〉金价走低投资人观望CPI报告和华许演说</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-20047.html\" title=\"美国拟取消20年期公债法巴警告市场恐慌花旗却喊买进\">美国拟取消20年期公债法巴警告市场恐慌花旗却喊买进</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-20079.html\" title=\"〈财报〉股票交易大赚一笔！高盛Q3获利增近3成盘前股价走扬\">〈财报〉股票交易大赚一笔！高盛Q3获利增近3成盘前股价走扬</a></li>\n </ul>\n</div>", "status": 0, "pv": 1, "link": "https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/6629753", "createdAt": "2026-10-13T21:40:04.000Z", "updatedAt": "2026-10-13T21:47:58.000Z" }, "position": [ { "id": 30, "pid": 0, "name": "实时", "pinyin": "hour", "path": "/hour", "orderBy": 0, "target": "0", "status": "0", "listView": "list.html", "articleView": "article.html", "seoTitle": "", "seoKeywords": "", "seoDescription": "", "type": "0", "dataConfig": null, "level": 1 } ], "_locals": {}, "cache": false }

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