天天财经

选前7天最新民调!民主党续保领先川普支持率回升 选前砸百万「奖金」能救共和党?

2026-10-27 10:59:48 网络 阅读(1)

距离11月3日美国期中选举仅剩一周,《路透社》与Ipsos最新民调显示美国总统川普支持率微升至32%,较上周历史低点回升1个百分点;但民主党在国会「泛化选票」仍保持明显领先,共和党守住所属国会多数的压力持续升温。

选前7天最新民调!民主党续保领先川普支持率回升 选前砸百万「奖金」能救共和党?

在国会整体投票意向调查中,47%登记选民倾向支持民主党,36%支持共和党,未决定者占11%;若把未决定选民的倾向纳入推算,民主党支持率为50%、共和党41%,领先幅度约9个百分点。在最可能实际投票的选民中,民主党仍以53%对44%占优。

经济与生活成本成为选战核心议题。民调显示,73%选民认为生活成本「朝错误方向发展」;自特朗普今年2月下令对伊朗动武、油价走高后,通膨压力持续拖累执政党评价。最新调查中,37%受访者认为民主党更擅长处理经济,仅33%选择共和党。投票热情也呈现落差:46%民主党选民表示对中期选举「非常热情」,共和党仅30%。

分析人士普遍认为,民主党有机会夺回众议院,但参议院因选区结构仍具挑战;若国会任一院易主,特朗普任期后两年的政策推动将明显受限。

选战接近尾声之际,川普还抛出争议性承诺,任何检举过去或今年期中选举舞弊、并促成当事人被捕定罪者,可获100万美元「奖金」。他在Truth Social上发文表示,这笔钱是「红利、奖励,随你怎么称呼」。

不过,白宫未说明川普所称「奖金」的资金来源与执行方式,美国联邦支出须经国会授权,司法部也未回应细节。

长期以来,川普宣称美国选举普遍存在舞弊,却未提出实证,多方研究亦显示美国选民舞弊极为罕见。随着选前气氛升温,这项百万悬赏恐进一步放大选举信任争议,也让最后一周选情更具火药味。

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欧中贸易逆差去年达3,600亿欧元;欧盟筹划快速反制与供应多元工具",
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    },
    {
      "id": 21806,
      "title": "油价突然下跌!伊朗将与沙国、土耳其、巴基斯坦会谈  川普保留攻伊选项",
      "shortTitle": "油价突然下跌!伊朗将与沙国、土耳其、巴基斯坦会谈  川普保留",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6637775/l/181c4a491a39c5be7474a7deacc81082.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-10-26T11:12:33.000Z",
      "description": "布兰特跌破110美元、WTI近100美元;伊朗称沙国、巴基斯坦、土耳其高层今赴德黑兰会谈。
川普称暂不攻击伊朗但保留军事与谈判选项;美国削减中东使馆人员,称伊朗威胁进入高级阶段。
高盛指中东运费飙升,亚洲炼油厂几乎停买11月美原油;桥水第三季加码原油,看好第四季油价。",
      "pv": 5,
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      "name": "实时",
      "path": "/hour"
    },
    {
      "id": 21815,
      "title": "这个国家充满愤怒 将继续抗议 马克宏陷入死结",
      "shortTitle": "这个国家充满愤怒 将继续抗议 马克宏陷入死结",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6637848/l/e93150d3ce6342e98439e6dc3284fee0.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-10-26T13:43:39.000Z",
      "description": "法国多个抗议团体和工会当天呼吁举行新一轮全国性示威,计划于10月31日再次走上街头,并推动在11月5日举行全国性罢工。
法国持续发酵的社会危机,演变成一道难以解开的政治死结。
对马克宏而言,比维持街头秩序更棘手的,是如何回应示威者提出的经济和社会诉求。
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    {
      "id": 21818,
      "title": "算力没用也得付钱!Anthropic上市文件揭长期支出压力",
      "shortTitle": "算力没用也得付钱!Anthropic上市文件揭长期支出压力",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6637853/l/286f3640f18e21f9bdfc22cc687049ea.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-10-26T14:10:23.000Z",
      "description": "Anthropic上市文件揭露,未来10年对6家伙伴支出逾5000亿美元,部分合约不得取消、且不论用量都要付款。
已揭露支出含向亚马逊至少1100亿美元、Google约1145亿美元、微软449亿美元;亚马逊与Google也是股东并供云端算力。",
      "pv": 4,
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      "path": "/hour"
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    {
      "id": 21819,
      "title": "多家机构示警美股风险!贝莱德降至中性、AI仍获看好、美银警告估值偏高",
      "shortTitle": "多家机构示警美股风险!贝莱德降至中性、AI仍获看好、美银警告",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6637645/l/bdc902cd6d8a70e723eb5b0e9b0cb28b.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-10-26T14:10:04.000Z",
      "description": "美股10月转趋震荡,标普500、那斯达克创新高后回落,市场聚焦企业获利能否支撑高档。
美银示警估值偏高、油价恐推升通膨,建议降低美股曝险;贝莱德降美股至「中性」,仍看好AI基础建设。
摩根大通、摩根士丹利仍偏多,但高利率、通膨反弹与信用风险,恐成美股后市变数。",
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    {
      "id": 21824,
      "title": "历史首次!中国车厂在欧洲季度销量超过日本",
      "shortTitle": "历史首次!中国车厂在欧洲季度销量超过日本",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6637885/l/6610bbe16380aa29308266baa5336481.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-10-26T15:22:05.000Z",
      "description": "7至9月中国品牌车欧洲挂牌量年增约一倍,市占率为12.7%,首度超越日本。
9月中国品牌在欧洲市占率升至14.5%,创历史新高。
欧盟正在考虑提出新规,在发放补贴及其他激励措施时优先支持本地生产的汽车。",
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    {
      "id": 21834,
      "title": "乌克兰战时状态再延90天 俄方:恢复三方谈判不代表限制军事行动",
      "shortTitle": "乌克兰战时状态再延90天 俄方:恢复三方谈判不代表限制军事行",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6637957/l/bd55f6b82ff0d1dbfc5cb7392405bbe2.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-10-26T21:50:04.000Z",
      "description": "泽伦斯基签署法案,战时状态与全面动员令再延长90天至2027年1月29日,这是乌国会第21度延长。
俄方称即使恢复美俄乌三方谈判,俄军仍将持续作战;佩斯科夫指不会限制军事行动。
俄乌规划11月恢复技术层级会谈,议题含能源、黑海、换俘与领土;阿列什基27日局部停火也同步启动。",
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      "title": "〈贵金属盘后〉金价收复4000美元 油价下跌缓解升息焦虑",
      "shortTitle": "〈贵金属盘后〉金价收复4000美元 油价下跌缓解升息焦虑",
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      "createdAt": "2026-10-26T22:49:18.000Z",
      "description": "黄金周一反弹,现货涨0.6%至每盎司4020.60美元,距上周五逾三个月低点回升
油价回落缓解通膨与升息焦虑,市场在Fed周三利率决策前等待讯号,12月升息机率达80%
白金跌1.1%至1533.65美元;Nornickel称大规模熔炉整修恐使2027至2028年关键金属产量下滑",
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      "title": "〈能源盘后〉中东和谈带来一线希望 布兰特油价跌近1%仍徘徊六个月高点附近",
      "shortTitle": "〈能源盘后〉中东和谈带来一线希望 布兰特油价跌近1%仍徘徊六",
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      "createdAt": "2026-10-26T23:00:53.000Z",
      "description": "中东局势缓解预期压抑油价,布兰特收115.81美元、WTI报101.79美元
胡塞称攻击沙国油管与利雅德机场,沙国联军称摧毁3架无人机
IEA示警供应风险;沙国Aramco将自2027下半年起在新加坡储油,SPR降至1982年来低点",
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      "id": 21850,
      "title": "Meta拟发行350亿美元股票 辉达、超微、博通有意掏钱",
      "shortTitle": "Meta拟发行350亿美元股票 辉达、超微、博通有意掏钱",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6637969/l/7e661b9241a074c4d42c37cdca98f8ec.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-10-26T23:00:07.000Z",
      "description": "Meta拟未来数月分阶段发行股票,筹近1,000亿美元,先募350亿、再推最高600亿美元ATM计划。
募资将投入AI基础设施与个人超级智慧;辉达、超微、博通表达意愿,合计拟认购50亿美元。
分析师称此举增强融资弹性但投资人仍有戒心,Meta股价周一下跌1.9%。",
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    "title": "选前7天最新民调!民主党续保领先川普支持率回升 选前砸百万「奖金」能救共和党?",
    "shortTitle": "选前7天最新民调!民主党续保领先川普支持率回升 选前砸百万「",
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    "description": "路透/Ipsos民调:川普支持率升至32%,民主党在国会选票领先,共和党守多数压力增大。
47%选民挺民主党、36%挺共和党;73%认为生活成本走错方向,46%民主党选民对期中选举非常热情。
川普称检举期中选举舞弊并促成定罪者可获100万美元,白宫未交代资金来源与执行方式。",
    "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6638157/l/8126f3066d4530faef0ed5f3792b703c.jpg",
    "content": "<p>距离11月3日美国期中选举仅剩一周,《路透社》与Ipsos最新民调显示美国总统川普支持率微升至32%,较上周历史低点回升1个百分点;但民主党在国会「泛化选票」仍保持明显领先,共和党守住所属国会多数的压力持续升温。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6638157/l/8126f3066d4530faef0ed5f3792b703c.jpg\" alt=\"选前7天最新民调!民主党续保领先川普支持率回升 选前砸百万「奖金」能救共和党?\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<p>在国会整体投票意向调查中,47%登记选民倾向支持民主党,36%支持共和党,未决定者占11%;若把未决定选民的倾向纳入推算,民主党支持率为50%、共和党41%,领先幅度约9个百分点。在最可能实际投票的选民中,民主党仍以53%对44%占优。</p>\n\n<p>经济与生活成本成为选战核心议题。民调显示,73%选民认为生活成本「朝错误方向发展」;自特朗普今年2月下令对伊朗动武、油价走高后,通膨压力持续拖累执政党评价。最新调查中,37%受访者认为民主党更擅长处理经济,仅33%选择共和党。投票热情也呈现落差:46%民主党选民表示对中期选举「非常热情」,共和党仅30%。</p>\n\n<p>分析人士普遍认为,民主党有机会夺回众议院,但参议院因选区结构仍具挑战;若国会任一院易主,特朗普任期后两年的政策推动将明显受限。</p>\n\n<p>选战接近尾声之际,川普还抛出争议性承诺,任何检举过去或今年期中选举舞弊、并促成当事人被捕定罪者,可获100万美元「奖金」。他在Truth Social上发文表示,这笔钱是「红利、奖励,随你怎么称呼」。</p>\n\n<p>不过,白宫未说明川普所称「奖金」的资金来源与执行方式,美国联邦支出须经国会授权,司法部也未回应细节。</p>\n\n<p>长期以来,川普宣称美国选举普遍存在舞弊,却未提出实证,多方研究亦显示美国选民舞弊极为罕见。随着选前气氛升温,这项百万悬赏恐进一步放大选举信任争议,也让最后一周选情更具火药味。</p>\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n  <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n  <ul>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-21834.html\" title=\"乌克兰战时状态再延90天 俄方:恢复三方谈判不代表限制军事行动\">乌克兰战时状态再延90天 俄方:恢复三方谈判不代表限制军事行动</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-21841.html\" title=\"〈贵金属盘后〉金价收复4000美元 油价下跌缓解升息焦虑\">〈贵金属盘后〉金价收复4000美元 油价下跌缓解升息焦虑</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-21888.html\" title=\"中国1至9月工业企业利润增长15.5%\">中国1至9月工业企业利润增长15.5%</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-21805.html\" title=\"不只油电车!欧盟最快明年初扩大进口限制 瞄准中国家具机械\">不只油电车!欧盟最快明年初扩大进口限制 瞄准中国家具机械</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-21868.html\" title=\"Anthropic近半营收靠对手 与谷歌、亚马逊、微软「亦敌亦友」\">Anthropic近半营收靠对手 与谷歌、亚马逊、微软「亦敌亦友」</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-21860.html\" title=\"剑指中国!欧盟11/1起对境外小包裹收手续费\">剑指中国!欧盟11/1起对境外小包裹收手续费</a></li>\n  </ul>\n</div>",
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