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"title": "【量大强涨股整理】美大选前最后利空测试,报复性反弹黑马准备发车?",
"shortTitle": "【量大强涨股整理】美大选前最后利空测试,报复性反弹黑马准备发",
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"description": "台股开低走高收跌291.69点、44920.14,外资卖超735.2亿;投信连买15日共2592.19亿 美股科技股重挫、费半跌7.2%;市场关注苹果、超微财报与AI投资报酬 丽台、振发、稳懋受惠AI供应链;台积电CoWoS扩产、鸿海与联发科营运看旺",
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"content": "\n<p>【量大强涨股整理】【2465丽台】⊕【4526东台】【1528恩德】【<span>3105</span>稳懋】<br></br>\n美大选前最后利空测试,报复性反弹黑马准备发车?</p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6643992/l/b1e9874aec6ee8b8d047858d45e46f42.jpg\" alt=\"【量大强涨股整理】美大选前最后利空测试,报复性反弹黑马准备发车?\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<p>(按赞订阅打开小铃铛)</p>\n\n<div class=\"youtube-embed-wrapper\" style=\"position:relative;padding-bottom:56.25%;padding-top:30px;height:0;overflow:hidden;\"><iframe allowfullscreen=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"360\" src=\"//www.youtube.com/embed/zlsfW7bSPpw\" style=\"position: absolute;top: 0;left: 0;width: 100%;height: 100%;\" width=\"640\"></iframe></div>\n\n<p><strong><span style=\"color:#ff0000\">再来看一下今天的台股!</span></strong></p>\n\n<p><strong>加权指数今日开低走高,终场下跌</strong><strong>291.69</strong><strong>点,收在</strong><strong>44920.14</strong><strong>,成交量</strong><strong>7588.75</strong><strong>亿,收下影线</strong><strong>521.04</strong><strong>点。</strong></p>\n\n<p><strong>观察三大法人今天筹码动向,外资卖超</strong><strong>735.20</strong><strong>亿元,投信买超</strong><strong>361.17</strong><strong>亿元,自营商卖超</strong><strong>152.88</strong><strong>亿元,三大法人合计卖超</strong><strong>526.91</strong><strong>亿元,其中,外资、自营商连卖三日,投信则连买十五日共买超</strong><strong> 2592.19</strong><strong>亿元</strong><strong> </strong><strong>。</strong></p>\n\n<p><strong>美股上周五受到科技股卖压扩大冲击,</strong><strong>(INTC-US)</strong><strong>英特尔,第四季财测远逊市场预期,股价单日下跌</strong><strong>28.58%</strong><strong>,加上信评机构调降</strong><strong>(META-US)Meta</strong><strong>及</strong><strong>Anthropic</strong><strong>评等展望,市场对科技巨头庞大</strong><strong>AI</strong><strong>资本支出的获利转换效率产生疑虑,拖累科技股全面走弱,费城半导体指数重挫</strong><strong>7.20%</strong><strong>,那斯达克指数下跌</strong><strong>2.86%</strong><strong>,美股四大指数同步收黑,此外</strong><strong>11</strong><strong>月</strong><strong>3</strong><strong>日美国期中选举将至,加上中东伊朗战事持续,市场避险情绪升温,使短线资金操作转趋保守,不过观察技术面,美股主要指数经过连续修正后,日</strong><strong>K</strong><strong>线已出现收脚讯号,显示部分低接买盘开始进场,后续仍有机会酝酿技术性反弹,更重要的是,美国企业基本面并未同步转弱,根据伦敦证交所集团旗下</strong><strong>IBES</strong><strong>统计,截至上周五,已有逾半数标普</strong><strong>500</strong><strong>指数成分企业公布第三季财报,整体获利预估年增</strong><strong>31.6%</strong><strong>,显示企业获利仍是支撑美股中长期走势的重要支柱,只是市场对</strong><strong>AI</strong><strong>投资报酬率的期待已经垫高,短期财报与资本支出指引将成为股价重新评价的关键。</strong></p>\n\n<p><strong>回到台股,受到美股科技股重挫及费半大幅下跌影响,加权指数今日呈现震荡回档格局,不过盘中跌幅收敛,终场开低走高,终场下跌</strong><strong>291.69</strong><strong>点,收在</strong><strong>44920.14</strong><strong>,成交量</strong><strong>7588.75</strong><strong>亿,今日虽收黑</strong><strong>K</strong><strong>棒,但留下长达下影线</strong><strong>521.04</strong><strong>点</strong></p>\n\n<p><strong>,显示出半年线附近相对有撑,观察上周五市场融资余额大幅减少</strong><strong>104</strong><strong>亿元,显示部分浮额及短线杠杆资金已经退场,有助于筹码重新沉淀,降低后续市场卖压,且观察</strong><strong>10</strong><strong>月</strong><strong>6</strong><strong>日至</strong><strong>10</strong><strong>月</strong><strong>30 </strong><strong>日八大官股共买超</strong><strong>15</strong><strong>天仅一天卖出,合计净买超</strong><strong>1,945 </strong><strong>亿元,加上投信连买十五日共买超</strong><strong> 2592.19</strong><strong>亿元</strong><strong> </strong><strong>,代表下档有支撑,来台股不排除呈现先下后上的震荡格局,不宜因单日国际股市重挫,就过度看淡台股中长期发展。</strong></p>\n\n<p><strong>值得留意的是,台湾经济基本面持续展现强劲动能,主计总处公布第三季经济成长率概估达14.36%</strong><strong>,较原先预测大幅上修</strong><strong>2.94</strong><strong>个百分点,创</strong><strong>48</strong><strong>年来同期最高纪录,且连续四季维持双位数成长,今年前三季经济成长率达</strong><strong>14.22%</strong><strong>,同样创下近半世纪新高,反映出口与企业投资同步热络,台湾经济呈现内外皆热的格局,进一步分析,受惠</strong><strong>AI</strong><strong>、高效能运算及云端服务需求持续扩张,第三季商品出口以美元计价年增</strong><strong>44.63%</strong><strong>,商品及服务输出实质成长</strong><strong>21.12%</strong><strong>;另一方面,企业加速</strong><strong>AI</strong><strong>基础建设投资,积极扩充先进制程产能及升级设备,带动资本形成实质成长</strong><strong>26.36%</strong><strong>,显示</strong><strong>AI</strong><strong>产业不仅带动出口,更进一步推升企业资本支出与整体经济成长。</strong></p>\n\n<p><strong>展望后市,预估台股短线仍将受到美股科技股修正、国际政经局势及重量级企业财报影响,指数可能维持高档震荡整理,但台湾</strong><strong>AI</strong><strong>供应链订单能见度及企业获利成长趋势仍值得期待,预估</strong><strong>2027</strong><strong>年台股企业</strong><strong>EPS</strong><strong>成长率有望达</strong><strong>30%</strong><strong>,中长期多头架构尚未改变,且观察筹码面</strong><strong>10</strong><strong>月</strong><strong>6</strong><strong>日至</strong><strong>11</strong><strong>月</strong><strong>2 </strong><strong>日大官股共买超</strong><strong>1,945 </strong><strong>亿元,投信连买十五日共买超</strong><strong> 2592.19</strong><strong>亿元</strong><strong> </strong><strong>,代表下档有支撑,投资策略建议以选股不选市为主,优先布局具备实质订单与获利成长动能的企业,持续看好先进制程、封装测试、记忆体、光通讯、</strong><strong>ASIC</strong><strong>、</strong><strong>AI</strong><strong>伺服器、散热、</strong><strong>CCL</strong><strong>及</strong><strong>PCB</strong><strong>等族群,并留意重电与金融保险的轮动机会。</strong></p>\n\n<p><strong>本周市场焦点将转向</strong><strong>(AAPL-US)</strong><strong>苹果,及</strong><strong>(AMD-US)</strong><strong>超微,等重量级企业财报,尤其</strong><strong>AI</strong><strong>相关业务成长、未来资本支出及获利展望,将牵动科技股评价与市场信心,整体而言,短线震荡不代表产业趋势反转,在台湾经济强劲成长及</strong><strong>AI</strong><strong>长期需求支撑下,建议投资人保留适度资金弹性,利用市场回档分批布局基本面佳、竞争优势明确且获利持续成长的优质企业,掌握震荡中的中长期投资机会。</strong></p>\n\n<p><strong>权值股方面,</strong><strong>(2330-TW)</strong><strong>台积电,下跌</strong><strong>1.69%</strong><strong>,收在</strong><strong>2330</strong><strong>元,</strong><strong>AI</strong><strong>晶片需求持续攀升,台积电</strong><strong>CoWoS</strong><strong>先进封装报价酝酿调涨</strong><strong>1</strong><strong>至</strong><strong>2</strong><strong>成,部分设备交期延长至</strong><strong>6</strong><strong>至</strong><strong>8</strong><strong>个月,供应链扩产压力升高,随着</strong><strong>AI GPU</strong><strong>、伺服器</strong><strong>CPU</strong><strong>及客制化</strong><strong>ASIC</strong><strong>需求扩大,加上高频宽记忆体整合提高制程复杂度,封装与测试产能同步吃紧,台积电持续推进先进封装布局,法人估</strong><strong>2026</strong><strong>年月产能朝逾</strong><strong>13</strong><strong>万片迈进,</strong><strong>2027</strong><strong>年以</strong><strong>20</strong><strong>万片为目标,并扩充嘉义、台南产能,长期也规划美国新厂,相关设备与零组件供应商可望受惠</strong><strong> </strong><strong>;</strong><strong> </strong></p>\n\n<p><strong>(2317-TW)鸿海,上涨2.24%</strong><strong>,收在</strong><strong>251</strong><strong>元,</strong><strong>2026</strong><strong>年营运动能持续看旺,预估</strong><strong>10</strong><strong>至</strong><strong>12</strong><strong>月营收逐月成长,第四季营收季增可望达</strong><strong>39%</strong><strong>,主要受惠</strong><strong>AI</strong><strong>资料中心需求强劲,新世代</strong><strong>AI</strong><strong>伺服器机柜及</strong><strong>CPO</strong><strong>交换器提前</strong><strong>2</strong><strong>至</strong><strong>3</strong><strong>个月量产出货,搭配</strong><strong>GPU</strong><strong>、</strong><strong>LPU</strong><strong>伺服器陆续放量,带动产品平均单价与营收提升,此外国际品牌新机上市及折叠手机新型态设计,有望刺激高阶机种换机需求,推升鸿海出货表现,展望</strong><strong>2027</strong><strong>年,</strong><strong>AI</strong><strong>伺服器与高阶智慧型手机双引擎持续挹注,营运成长可期;</strong></p>\n\n<p><strong>(2454-TW)联发科,上涨</strong><strong>1.40%</strong><strong>,收在</strong><strong>3970</strong><strong>元,第三季营运表现亮眼,受惠智慧装置新专案量产及</strong><strong>TV SoC</strong><strong>价格调整,带动营收达</strong><strong>1,680.58</strong><strong>亿元,季增</strong><strong>10.4%</strong><strong>、年增</strong><strong>18.3%</strong><strong>,税后净利</strong><strong>281.99</strong><strong>亿元,</strong><strong>EPS</strong><strong>达</strong><strong>17.50</strong><strong>元,毛利率维持</strong><strong>46.3%</strong><strong>,营业利益年增</strong><strong>22.2%</strong><strong>,显示本业获利动能稳健,此外公司持续加码</strong><strong>AI</strong><strong>与先进通讯研发,第三季研发费用达</strong><strong>422.37</strong><strong>亿元,惟存货增至</strong><strong>1,535</strong><strong>亿元,周转天数升至</strong><strong>127</strong><strong>日,且营业现金流转为净流出,后续须留意库存去化及现金流改善情况,展望后市,</strong><strong>AI</strong><strong>布局与新产品量产仍是营运成长关键</strong><strong> </strong><strong>。</strong><strong> </strong></p>\n\n<p><strong>AI浪潮持续推升半导体与伺服器供应链需求,从辉达</strong><strong>AI</strong><strong>运算平台、专业</strong><strong>GPU</strong><strong>加速卡,到</strong><strong>AI</strong><strong>伺服器机壳与滑轨,以及高速通讯所需的砷化镓元件,相关厂商同步迎来新商机,</strong><strong>(2465-TW)</strong><strong>丽台,受惠辉达新品出货放量,</strong><strong>(5426-TW)</strong><strong>振发积极切入</strong><strong>AI</strong><strong>伺服器机壳与滑轨市场,</strong><strong>(3105-TW)</strong><strong>稳懋,则掌握光通讯与高速传输需求,三家公司分别布局</strong><strong>AI</strong><strong>硬体、伺服器及半导体关键环节,后续营运成长潜力值得关注。</strong></p>\n\n<p><strong>2026.10.25 股市期皇后领先预告</strong><strong>(2465-TW)</strong><strong>丽台</strong></p>\n\n<p><strong><img data-height=\"492\" data-ratio=\"1.5447154471544715\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6643992/m/4ce039c1130b12cc362e1d5372dc3d37.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6643992/l/4ce039c1130b12cc362e1d5372dc3d37.jpg\"></img> </strong></p>\n\n<p><strong>(2465-TW)</strong><strong>丽台,</strong><strong>78=>112</strong><strong>,领先预告后</strong><strong>+44%<br></br>\n<br></br>\n丽台受惠辉达AI</strong><strong>产品出货放量,第三季获利大幅攀升,</strong><strong>9</strong><strong>月自结</strong><strong>EPS</strong><strong>达</strong><strong>1.59</strong><strong>元,创单月新高,第三季</strong><strong>EPS</strong><strong>更达</strong><strong>4.03</strong><strong>元,年增近</strong><strong>11.45</strong><strong>倍,获利表现亮眼,主要受惠辉达</strong><strong>GB10</strong><strong>平台</strong><strong>DGX Spark</strong><strong>及</strong><strong>RTX PRO 6000</strong><strong>系列</strong><strong>GPU</strong><strong>加速卡销售畅旺,展望第四季,随着搭载</strong><strong>GB300</strong><strong>晶片的</strong><strong>DGX Station</strong><strong>及</strong><strong>RTX PRO 5500</strong><strong>陆续出货,加上</strong><strong>AI</strong><strong>工作站需求持续升温,营运动能可望延续,看好</strong><strong>RTX PRO Blackwell</strong><strong>系列代理业务将持续挹注成长,搭配记忆体价格上扬带动产品平均售价提升,明年上半年业绩仍具成长潜力。</strong></p>\n\n<p><strong><img data-height=\"495\" data-ratio=\"1.5353535353535352\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6643992/m/c98ce85f95e70c97a35955cee495b5b0.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6643992/l/c98ce85f95e70c97a35955cee495b5b0.jpg\"></img> </strong></p>\n\n<p><strong>2026.10.25 </strong><strong>股市期皇后领先预告</strong><strong>(5426-TW)</strong><strong>振发</strong></p>\n\n<p><strong><img data-height=\"498\" data-ratio=\"1.5261044176706828\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6643992/m/0231c784bb23b673b2a2368fe93157ee.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6643992/l/0231c784bb23b673b2a2368fe93157ee.jpg\"></img> </strong></p>\n\n<p> </p>\n\n<p><strong>(5426-TW)</strong><strong>振发,</strong><strong>30.3=>32.85</strong><strong>,领先预告后</strong><strong>+10%</strong><strong>,<br></br>\n<br></br>\n振发积极切入AI</strong><strong>伺服器供应链,</strong><strong>2026</strong><strong>年上半年营收达</strong><strong>10</strong><strong>亿元,年增</strong><strong>1.16</strong><strong>亿元,毛利率提升至</strong><strong>21%</strong><strong>,</strong><strong>EPS</strong><strong>为</strong><strong>0.4</strong><strong>元,营运稳健成长,产品以电脑机壳为主,并积极拓展</strong><strong>AI</strong><strong>伺服器机壳及滑轨业务,已取得辉达合格供应商资格,相关产品正送交多家客户验证,展望后市,第三季受惠伺服器订单及递延工业电脑出货,营运动能回升,越南新厂布局也有助于拓展海外市场。不过,短期仍须留意</strong><strong>GPU</strong><strong>及记忆体缺货对出货的影响,后续若顺利取得客户订单,将有望开启新一波成长动能。</strong></p>\n\n<p><img data-height=\"497\" data-ratio=\"1.529175050301811\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6643992/m/816b8f73aa22d95d62880bf2f16dc5c9.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6643992/l/816b8f73aa22d95d62880bf2f16dc5c9.jpg\"></img></p>\n\n<p><strong>2026.10.24 </strong><strong>股市期皇后领先预告</strong><strong>(3105-TW)</strong><strong>稳懋</strong></p>\n\n<p><img data-height=\"496\" data-ratio=\"1.532258064516129\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6643992/m/bdcbff16e692d3d8868fad7ede8a2929.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6643992/l/bdcbff16e692d3d8868fad7ede8a2929.jpg\"></img></p>\n\n<p><strong>(3105-TW)</strong><strong>稳懋,</strong><strong>486=>596</strong><strong>,领先预告后</strong><strong>+22%</strong><strong>,<br></br>\n<br></br>\n稳懋受惠PIN</strong><strong>等光通讯新订单自</strong><strong>6</strong><strong>月开始量产,搭配</strong><strong>AI</strong><strong>资料中心、低轨道卫星需求成长,后续营运动能看俏,</strong><strong>2026</strong><strong>年第二季营收</strong><strong>52.57</strong><strong>亿元,季增</strong><strong>14.54%</strong><strong>,税后净利</strong><strong>9.77</strong><strong>亿元,季增</strong><strong>83.22%</strong><strong>,展望第三季,光通讯出货放量,加上低轨卫星标案陆续出货,可望带动营收成长,其中光通讯成长动能最受期待,随新订单第四季持续放大,</strong><strong>2027</strong><strong>年营运成长空间可期。</strong></p>\n\n<p><img data-height=\"498\" data-ratio=\"1.5261044176706828\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6643992/m/af4ebbdf4ac492530fcafa207960c9a4.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6643992/l/af4ebbdf4ac492530fcafa207960c9a4.jpg\"></img><br></br>\n<br></br>\n欢迎免费订阅<br></br>\n<br></br>\n股市期皇后 庄佳萤</p>\n\n<p><a href=\"https://lin.ee/9cyliMq\">https://lin.ee/9cyliMq</a></p>\n\n<p><span style=\"color:#ff0000\">11/2</span></p>\n\n<p>强势股分享</p>\n\n<p>【上市 量大上涨股】<br></br>\n<br></br>\n(2491-TW)吉祥全</p>\n\n<p>(4720-TW)德渊</p>\n\n<p>(2468-TW)华经</p>\n\n<p>(6689-TW)伊云谷</p>\n\n<p>(4562-TW)颖汉</p>\n\n<p>(6271-TW)同欣电</p>\n\n<p>(1617-TW)荣星</p>\n\n<p>(2465-TW)丽台</p>\n\n<p>(1528-TW)恩德</p>\n\n<p>(3004-TW)丰达科</p>\n\n<p>(1809-TW)中釉</p>\n\n<p>(2371-TW)大同</p>\n\n<p>(3031-TW)佰鸿</p>\n\n<p>(2441-TW)超丰</p>\n\n<p>(4977-TW)众达-KY</p>\n\n<p>(3321-TW)同泰</p>\n\n<p><img data-height=\"548\" data-ratio=\"1.1058394160583942\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6643992/m/2c3cab774153af03153f9e11aea0098f.jpg\" data-width=\"606\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6643992/l/2c3cab774153af03153f9e11aea0098f.jpg\"></img><span style=\"color:#ff0000\">11/2</span></p>\n\n<p>强势股分享</p>\n\n<p>【上柜 量大上涨股】<br></br>\n<br></br>\n(6221-TW)晋泰</p>\n\n<p>(6233-TW)旺玖</p>\n\n<p>(5013-TW)强新</p>\n\n<p>(5340-TW)建荣</p>\n\n<p>(4903-TW)联光通</p>\n\n<p>(6697-TW)东捷资讯</p>\n\n<p>(6127-TW)九豪</p>\n\n<p>(6609-TW)泷泽科</p>\n\n<p>(6234-TW)高侨</p>\n\n<p>(6140-TW)讯达</p>\n\n<p>(6425-TW)易发</p>\n\n<p>(1815-TW)富乔</p>\n\n<p>(6218-TW)豪勉</p>\n\n<p>(5426-TW)振发</p>\n\n<p>(8099-TW)大世科</p>\n\n<p>(5230-TW)雷笛克光学</p>\n\n<p><img data-height=\"549\" data-ratio=\"1.1092896174863387\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6643992/m/8773d5ef5c752c1b36bc5b36d99325d6.jpg\" data-width=\"609\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6643992/l/8773d5ef5c752c1b36bc5b36d99325d6.jpg\"></img>庄佳萤分析师:<br></br>\n<br></br>\n每日分享盘势解析跟精选产业个股,让投资朋友轻松追踪2026年年台股操作方向,相关详细内容请加入Line@索取,免费提供给您!</p>\n\n<p>股市期皇后 证期双分析师 庄佳萤</p>\n\n<p>LINE官方帐号<br></br>\n<br></br>\nLINE ID搜寻: @win1788 (@不可省略)<br></br>\n<br></br>\n或是点击下方网址加入<br></br>\n<br></br>\n<a href=\"https://lin.ee/9cyliMq\">https://lin.ee/9cyliMq</a></p>\n\n<p>Youtube影音频道 精彩解盘影片不容错过!<br></br>\n<br></br>\n(记得按赞,订阅并打开小铃铛)</p>\n\n<div style=\"position:relative;padding-bottom:56.25%;padding-top:30px;height:0;overflow:hidden;\"><iframe allowfullscreen=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"360\" src=\"//www.youtube.com/embed/lnLmKx3dlUo\" style=\"position: absolute;top: 0;left: 0;width: 100%;height: 100%;\" width=\"640\"></iframe></div>\n\n<p>FB粉丝团:【股市期皇后】</p>\n\n<p><a href=\"https://goo.gl/kN2VKT\">https://goo.gl/kN2VKT</a><br></br>\n<br></br>\n文章来源:摩尔投顾庄佳萤分析师</p>\n\n<p class=\"warning\">本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券<br></br>\n<br></br>\n无不当之财务利益关系 以往之绩效不保证未来获利<br></br>\n<br></br>\n投资人应独立判断 审慎评估并自负投资风险</p>\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-22822.html\" title=\"卡达斡旋谈判现曙光 国际原油价格重挫逾3%\">卡达斡旋谈判现曙光 国际原油价格重挫逾3%</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-22836.html\" 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