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"title": "高盛上调年底与明年油价预测 称「供应风险加剧」",
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"description": "高盛上调12月布兰特至105美元、2027年均价至88美元，并调升WTI预测。 分析师称中东供应下行风险升温，市场押注美国期中选举后局势可能升级。 高盛估2027年每日供应中断100万桶；看多情境布兰特可达130美元，看空恐跌至60多美元。",
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"content": "<p>鉴于中东战事延续导致原油供应风险升温，高盛正式上调今年底与2027年的油价预测，加入其他华尔街大型投行调升原油展望的行列。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6644085/l/c215cb9de85ff815bd88ea77c5087bf6.jpg\" alt=\"高盛上调年底与明年油价预测 称「供应风险加剧」\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<p>高盛分析师Daan Struyven与Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby等人在11月1日发布的报告中指出，12月布兰特原油期货预估值已从每桶90美元上调至105美元，2027年均价则调升10%至每桶88美元，并同步上调美国西德州中级原油(WTI)的预测。</p>\n\n<p>分析师团队写道：「实质的供应下行风险可能持续维持显著的近期风险溢价。」他们补充说明，金融市场正给予「11月3日美国期中选举后局势升级，以及随之而来的中东供应潜在疲软」愈来愈高的权重。</p>\n\n<p>Struyven与Grigsby进一步分析，航运袭击加剧与基础设施受损均可能触发油价进一步上扬，同时也提及俄罗斯入侵乌克兰带来的相关风险。分析师表示：「由于中断发生的时间与地点极难预测，我们的基准情境已纳入2027年全球每日100万桶的供应中断冲击量。」</p>\n\n<p>尽管中东原油供应已回升至接近战前水准，布兰特原油10月仍大涨14%并创下6个月新高。主要原因在于市场担忧美伊敌对状态可能在期中选举后激化，美国总统川普多次暗示可能恢复空袭行动，而伊朗最高领袖则已下令军方高层指挥官准备迎接新一轮对抗。</p>\n\n<p>除了核心基准看法，高盛也描绘了价格区间达70美元的看多与看空情境。分析师指出，在看多情境下，若波斯湾日产量持续比去年平均低350万桶，明年布兰特均价可能高达每桶130美元；但在区域产能加速恢复的看空情境中，期货价格则「可能跌至60多美元区间」。</p>\n\n<p>此外，摩根士丹利已将第四季现货布兰特预估调高至每桶105美元，澳盛银行(ANZ Group Holdings Ltd.)也将年底布兰特期货目标价调升至同等水准，而本周一交易中主力合约则拉回至110美元下方。</p>\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-22899.html\" title=\"美伊有望谈出和平？国际油价齐跌逾6% 美油跌破100美元\">美伊有望谈出和平？国际油价齐跌逾6% 美油跌破100美元</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-22870.html\" title=\"中国采购美农产品进度放缓 170亿美元贸易承诺面临考验\">中国采购美农产品进度放缓 170亿美元贸易承诺面临考验</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-22894.html\" title=\"〈美国期中选举〉国会若换手哪些美股受影响？一次看懂军工、医疗、加密货币与AI\">〈美国期中选举〉国会若换手哪些美股受影响？一次看懂军工、医疗、加密货币与AI</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-22887.html\" title=\"十铨：记忆体缺货尚未达高峰「到明年Q2最吃紧」 千坪新厂估增5成产能\">十铨：记忆体缺货尚未达高峰「到明年Q2最吃紧」 千坪新厂估增5成产能</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-22893.html\" title=\"大同华映案和解露曙光 有望回冲近百亿元损失 估每股税前盈余贡献4.6元\">大同华映案和解露曙光 有望回冲近百亿元损失 估每股税前盈余贡献4.6元</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-22877.html\" title=\"〈美国期中选举〉选州长为何牵动AI股？10场选战攸关2.5兆美元投资\">〈美国期中选举〉选州长为何牵动AI股？10场选战攸关2.5兆美元投资</a></li>\n </ul>\n</div>",
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