天天财经-提供金融入门知识-投资理财技巧-〈能源盘后〉伊朗释出和平谈判讯号油价挫逾7% Brent跌破105美元

伊朗释出愿意透过对话解决战争的讯号,加上伊朗与卡达官员持续协商结束美以战争,市场对中东原油供应恢复的期待升高,国际油价11月2日重挫逾7%。布兰特原油 (Brent) 期货下跌8.66美元,跌幅7.63%,收每桶104.77美元;美国西德州中级原油 (WTI) 下跌7.66美元,跌幅7.36%,收每桶96.46美元。盘中布兰特最低跌至103.28美元,WTI最低触及95.15美元。

〈能源盘后〉伊朗释出和平谈判讯号油价挫逾7% Brent跌破105美元

油价大跌主要受到伊朗最高领袖释出谈判空间的消息影响。伊朗总统裴泽斯基安(Masoud Pezeshkian)表示,最高领袖穆吉塔巴·哈米尼(Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei)已授权政府在和平谈判方面采取特定行动,并称德黑兰将尝试透过对话解决问题。伊朗谈判代表已与卡达调停人员连续多日会谈,讨论结束战争的可能方案。

美国总统川普也表示,伊朗希望达成结束战争的协议,并认为协议有可能实现。卡达调停人员则于11月2日晚间前往德黑兰,与伊朗外交部长阿拉奇(Abbas Araqchi)会谈,讨论美伊协议的可能性。外交进展降低市场对冲突进一步升级的担忧,促使投资人下调原油供应中断风险溢价。

不过,市场对谈判能否成功仍抱持保留态度。雷蒙詹姆斯金融公司(Raymond James)分析师帕维尔·莫尔恰诺夫(Pavel Molchanov)指出,美伊谈判出现进展的迹象推低油价,但过去数月已多次出现看似有望突破、最后却未能实现的情况,因此仍须审慎看待。瑞银集团(UBS)分析师乔瓦尼·斯塔乌诺(Giovanni Staunovo)也表示,油市对中东每一则消息都高度敏感,上周市场因担忧冲突迫近升级而推高油价,本周则因美伊外交谈判持续而快速回落。

布兰特原油10月底曾收在六个月高点,主要因市场担忧美国期中选举后中东冲突可能再度升级。近期荷姆兹海峡油轮遇袭事件增加,进一步加深市场对能源运输受阻的疑虑。不过,部分主要出口国的出货量也出现回升迹象,沙乌地阿拉伯10月原油出口较9月增加,三家船舶追踪机构中有两家确认这项趋势,尽管沙国能源设施仍遭到与伊朗结盟的叶门胡塞武装组织攻击。

供应面仍是油价后续走势的重要支撑。阿布达比国家石油公司(ADNOC)执行长苏丹·贾比尔(Sultan Al Jaber)表示,自2月底伊朗战争爆发、荷姆兹海峡航运受到干扰以来,全球原油库存已累计消耗近10亿桶。这代表即使外交谈判带动油价短线回落,全球能源库存仍相当紧张,若运输或生产再度受到冲击,市场可能迅速重新反映供应风险。

高盛(Goldman Sachs)则警告,中东供应风险仍可能推升油价。该行11月1日上调油价预测,若波斯湾原油产量持续低于2025年平均水准每日350万桶,布兰特原油2027年可能升至每桶140美元。高盛指出,油轮遇袭增加、能源基础设施受损,以及市场持续存在的供应风险溢价,都是油价进一步上涨的主要触发因素。

整体而言,伊朗释出谈判意愿,使市场暂时降低对中东战事扩大的预期,促成油价单日大幅修正。然而,近10亿桶库存消耗、荷姆兹海峡航运风险及能源设施受损等问题尚未完全解除。后续油价能否持续回落,仍取决于美伊谈判是否取得实质进展、航运能否恢复正常,以及波斯湾原油产量是否回升。

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油市对中东消息高度敏感，供应风险仍在；高盛上调预测，若波斯湾产量偏低，布兰特2027年恐升至140美元。", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6644497/l/62c9c07d110b7a7e57a4622e2ace5c99.jpg", "content": "<p>伊朗释出愿意透过对话解决战争的讯号,加上伊朗与卡达官员持续协商结束美以战争,市场对中东原油供应恢复的期待升高,国际油价11月2日重挫逾7%。布兰特原油 (Brent) 期货下跌8.66美元,跌幅7.63%,收每桶104.77美元;美国西德州中级原油 (WTI) 下跌7.66美元,跌幅7.36%,收每桶96.46美元。盘中布兰特最低跌至103.28美元,WTI最低触及95.15美元。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6644497/l/62c9c07d110b7a7e57a4622e2ace5c99.jpg\" alt=\"〈能源盘后〉伊朗释出和平谈判讯号油价挫逾7% Brent跌破105美元\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<p>油价大跌主要受到伊朗最高领袖释出谈判空间的消息影响。伊朗总统裴泽斯基安(Masoud Pezeshkian)表示,最高领袖穆吉塔巴·哈米尼(Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei)已授权政府在和平谈判方面采取特定行动,并称德黑兰将尝试透过对话解决问题。伊朗谈判代表已与卡达调停人员连续多日会谈,讨论结束战争的可能方案。</p>\n\n<p>美国总统川普也表示,伊朗希望达成结束战争的协议,并认为协议有可能实现。卡达调停人员则于11月2日晚间前往德黑兰,与伊朗外交部长阿拉奇(Abbas Araqchi)会谈,讨论美伊协议的可能性。外交进展降低市场对冲突进一步升级的担忧,促使投资人下调原油供应中断风险溢价。</p>\n\n<p>不过,市场对谈判能否成功仍抱持保留态度。雷蒙詹姆斯金融公司(Raymond James)分析师帕维尔·莫尔恰诺夫(Pavel Molchanov)指出,美伊谈判出现进展的迹象推低油价,但过去数月已多次出现看似有望突破、最后却未能实现的情况,因此仍须审慎看待。瑞银集团(UBS)分析师乔瓦尼·斯塔乌诺(Giovanni Staunovo)也表示,油市对中东每一则消息都高度敏感,上周市场因担忧冲突迫近升级而推高油价,本周则因美伊外交谈判持续而快速回落。</p>\n\n<p>布兰特原油10月底曾收在六个月高点,主要因市场担忧美国期中选举后中东冲突可能再度升级。近期荷姆兹海峡油轮遇袭事件增加,进一步加深市场对能源运输受阻的疑虑。不过,部分主要出口国的出货量也出现回升迹象,沙乌地阿拉伯10月原油出口较9月增加,三家船舶追踪机构中有两家确认这项趋势,尽管沙国能源设施仍遭到与伊朗结盟的叶门胡塞武装组织攻击。</p>\n\n<p>供应面仍是油价后续走势的重要支撑。阿布达比国家石油公司(ADNOC)执行长苏丹·贾比尔(Sultan Al Jaber)表示,自2月底伊朗战争爆发、荷姆兹海峡航运受到干扰以来,全球原油库存已累计消耗近10亿桶。这代表即使外交谈判带动油价短线回落,全球能源库存仍相当紧张,若运输或生产再度受到冲击,市场可能迅速重新反映供应风险。</p>\n\n<p>高盛(Goldman Sachs)则警告,中东供应风险仍可能推升油价。该行11月1日上调油价预测,若波斯湾原油产量持续低于2025年平均水准每日350万桶,布兰特原油2027年可能升至每桶140美元。高盛指出,油轮遇袭增加、能源基础设施受损,以及市场持续存在的供应风险溢价,都是油价进一步上涨的主要触发因素。</p>\n\n<p>整体而言,伊朗释出谈判意愿,使市场暂时降低对中东战事扩大的预期,促成油价单日大幅修正。然而,近10亿桶库存消耗、荷姆兹海峡航运风险及能源设施受损等问题尚未完全解除。后续油价能否持续回落,仍取决于美伊谈判是否取得实质进展、航运能否恢复正常,以及波斯湾原油产量是否回升。</p>\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-22878.html\" title=\"台股跌深有原因！单周遭倒货53亿美元亚股最惨富兰克林揭资金新去向\">台股跌深有原因！单周遭倒货53亿美元亚股最惨富兰克林揭资金新去向</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-22900.html\" title=\"川普会为马斯克动用特赦权？他的答案是「有必要就会」\">川普会为马斯克动用特赦权？他的答案是「有必要就会」</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-22887.html\" title=\"十铨：记忆体缺货尚未达高峰「到明年Q2最吃紧」千坪新厂估增5成产能\">十铨：记忆体缺货尚未达高峰「到明年Q2最吃紧」千坪新厂估增5成产能</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-22885.html\" title=\"1150亿美元押注AI！迈威尔收购Lumentum 挑战博通\">1150亿美元押注AI！迈威尔收购Lumentum 挑战博通</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-22879.html\" title=\"欧元区10月制造业PMI微降至52.7 并面临通膨与供应链压力\">欧元区10月制造业PMI微降至52.7 并面临通膨与供应链压力</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-22889.html\" title=\"高盛上调年底与明年油价预测称「供应风险加剧」\">高盛上调年底与明年油价预测称「供应风险加剧」</a></li>\n </ul>\n</div>", "status": 0, "pv": 1, "link": "https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/6644497", "createdAt": "2026-11-02T21:20:03.000Z", "updatedAt": "2026-11-02T21:28:53.000Z" }, "position": [ { "id": 30, "pid": 0, "name": "实时", "pinyin": "hour", "path": "/hour", "orderBy": 0, "target": "0", "status": "0", "listView": "list.html", "articleView": "article.html", "seoTitle": "", "seoKeywords": "", "seoDescription": "", "type": "0", "dataConfig": null, "level": 1 } ], "_locals": {}, "cache": false }

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