罕见！苹果放弃压价改签NAND长约　专家：AI挤压产能令记忆体议价权易主

2026-10-23 14:16:07 网络阅读（68）
当全球议价能力最强的消费电子买家开始放弃压价、转而签下「可能不设价格上限」的长期合约，记忆体晶片市场的定价权正发生根本性转移。
南韩《经济论坛报》周二(8日)报导，苹果已与日本铠侠协商NAND快闪记忆体长期供应协议(LTA)，采购逻辑由传统的「压价＋多源」转向「锁量＋长约」，该长约期限3至5年，且可能不设固定价格上限。
苹果历来凭借庞大采购规模在谈判中占尽优势，但此一采购策略180度转向堪称罕见，背景是资料中心客户愿签LTA且支付高溢价。对苹果而言，锁量正变得与压价同等重要。
铠侠与SK海力士据悉为少数已采用此类协议的供应商，协议采购量与价格均未披露，苹果亦未证实。
AI对产能的挤占正把成本压力传导至终端。根据TrendForce估计，到2026年第三季，256GB iPhone 18 Pro的记忆体成本恐较一年前高出近四倍，记忆体占物料清单(BOM)比例已从早期256GB Pro机型的约10%升至约34%，并可能在2027年上半年突破40%。
此外，苹果首款可折叠iPhone起售价约2099至2299美元，高容量配置售价恐超过3000美元，亦解释了苹果何以甘愿接受更高成本。
苹果转向并非个案。TrendForce指出，三星、SK海力士与美光恐将是未来长约候选者，涵盖LPDDR5X与LPDDR6，三星拟将60%至70%产能投入LTA。NAND供应则较分散：SK海力士与三星合计占可折叠设备NAND约45%，剩余份额正是铠侠的空间。
对投资人来说，市场存在预期差距。市场仍按传统「矽周期」框架为NAND定价，认定涨价之后必迎产能过剩与回调，但AI驱动的产能挤占具有长期与结构性特征，意味本轮记忆体周期的高点高度与持续时间，可能超出传统预期。
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    "content": "<p>当全球议价能力最强的消费电子买家开始放弃压价、转而签下「可能不设价格上限」的长期合约，记忆体晶片市场的定价权正发生根本性转移。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6600357/l/c00b20a541146e08a82f6fc88d8841b6.jpg\" alt=\"罕见！苹果放弃压价改签NAND长约　专家：AI挤压产能令记忆体议价权易主\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<p>南韩《经济论坛报》周二(8日)报导，苹果已与日本铠侠协商NAND快闪记忆体长期供应协议(LTA)，采购逻辑由传统的「压价＋多源」转向「锁量＋长约」，该长约期限3至5年，且可能不设固定价格上限。</p>\n\n<p>苹果历来凭借庞大采购规模在谈判中占尽优势，但此一采购策略180度转向堪称罕见，背景是资料中心客户愿签LTA且支付高溢价。对苹果而言，锁量正变得与压价同等重要。</p>\n\n<p>铠侠与SK海力士据悉为少数已采用此类协议的供应商，协议采购量与价格均未披露，苹果亦未证实。</p>\n\n<p>AI对产能的挤占正把成本压力传导至终端。根据TrendForce估计，到2026年第三季，256GB iPhone 18 Pro的记忆体成本恐较一年前高出近四倍，记忆体占物料清单(BOM)比例已从早期256GB Pro机型的约10%升至约34%，并可能在2027年上半年突破40%。</p>\n\n<p>此外，苹果首款可折叠iPhone起售价约2099至2299美元，高容量配置售价恐超过3000美元，亦解释了苹果何以甘愿接受更高成本。</p>\n\n<p>苹果转向并非个案。TrendForce指出，三星、SK海力士与美光恐将是未来长约候选者，涵盖LPDDR5X与LPDDR6，三星拟将60%至70%产能投入LTA。NAND供应则较分散：SK海力士与三星合计占可折叠设备NAND约45%，剩余份额正是铠侠的空间。</p>\n\n<p>对投资人来说，市场存在预期差距。市场仍按传统「矽周期」框架为NAND定价，认定涨价之后必迎产能过剩与回调，但AI驱动的产能挤占具有长期与结构性特征，意味本轮记忆体周期的高点高度与持续时间，可能超出传统预期。</p>\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n  <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n  <ul>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/AI/article-2576.html\" title=\"摩根大通喊买铠侠！上调目标价93.8%、AI推论需求引爆NAND快闪记忆体新行情\">摩根大通喊买铠侠！上调目标价93.8%、AI推论需求引爆NAND快闪记忆体新行情</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/AI/article-17529.html\" title=\"4大会计首家！KPMG台湾所10/1起全员启用付费版Copilot与AI Agent\">4大会计首家！KPMG台湾所10/1起全员启用付费版Copilot与AI Agent</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/AI/article-16993.html\" title=\"Muse成新宠！华尔街看好成Meta新收入来源 57家券商喊买 开盘涨近2%\">Muse成新宠！华尔街看好成Meta新收入来源 57家券商喊买 开盘涨近2%</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/AI/article-18083.html\" title=\"手机又要变贵了 记忆体涨价让华为每支成本平均多200美元\">手机又要变贵了 记忆体涨价让华为每支成本平均多200美元</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/AI/article-18862.html\" title=\"AI监管最大分歧曝光！OpenAI执行长：为收获AI红利  世界应当接受部分坏事可以发生\">AI监管最大分歧曝光！OpenAI执行长：为收获AI红利  世界应当接受部分坏事可以发生</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/AI/article-9686.html\" title=\"美出口管制反助中企 三星、SK海力士传测试AMEC设备\">美出口管制反助中企 三星、SK海力士传测试AMEC设备</a></li>\n  </ul>\n</div>",
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    "createdAt": "2026-09-08T06:10:04.000Z",
    "updatedAt": "2026-10-23T06:16:07.000Z"
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