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iPhone发表会后苹果股价怎么走?美银揭历史表现、今年三大观察重点

2026-10-23 20:18:25 网络 阅读(62)

外媒报导,苹果 (AAPL-US) 即将举行年度 iPhone 新机发表会,美国银行分析师 Wamsi Mohan 的最新研究显示,苹果股价过往常在新品亮相后出现温和的「利多出尽」卖压,随后于 30 至 60 天内回升。今年市场反应则将取决于产品涨价幅度、Siri AI 功能的采用情况,以及苹果对折叠手机需求的说明。

iPhone发表会后苹果股价怎么走?美银揭历史表现、今年三大观察重点

Mohan 统计,自 2007 年首款 iPhone 发表以来,苹果股价曾有 17 次在发表会后 60 天录得上涨。其中表现最佳的是 2019 年 iPhone 11 发表后,股价在 60 天内上涨 20%。

本次发表会前,苹果周二 (8 日) 收跌 1.17%,报每股 316.22 美元,连续两个交易日收黑。

(图:苹果)
(图:苹果)

苹果将于 9 月 9 日在贾伯斯剧院举行「Surprise and Shine」(惊喜耀现,开新篇) 发表会。这也是特纳斯 (John Ternus) 本月接替库克 (Tim Cook)、出任执行长后,首度主持产品发表会。

产品焦点是苹果首款折叠 iPhone,外界推测将命名为 iPhone Ultra。

花旗分析师预估,这款手机起售价将超过 2,000 美元,今年下半年销量约为 500 万支,2027 年第一季再售出约 230 万支。苹果也预计推出完整的 iPhone 18 Pro 系列、新款 Apple Watch,以及更新的 AI 软体功能。

不过,新品定价背后也反映成本压力。除了售价较高的折叠机型,一般 iPhone 18 机型也被预期将涨价,苹果正设法因应记忆体价格大幅上升对获利率的冲击。

记忆体问题同时牵动苹果的供货与获利。公司 7 月底对本季营收提出审慎展望,主要原因是无法取得足够记忆体晶片以满足需求;最近一季的获利率也受到记忆体涨价影响,较前一季承受明显压力。

库克在卸任前最后一次财报电话会议上表示,苹果是在不情愿的情况下调涨价格。

他将记忆体价格急升形容为「百年一遇的洪灾」,并预期相关压力仍将持续。

这波供应吃紧与 AI 基础建设热潮密切相关。

辉达、微软、亚马逊与 Meta 等企业加速投入,带动 AI 伺服器使用的高频宽记忆体 (HBM) 与先进 DRAM 需求持续超过供给。

SK 海力士、三星与美光今年的高阶 AI 记忆体产能大多已售罄,进一步推高价格,也增强供应商的议价能力。

报导指出,专家预期记忆体供应限制将延续至 2027 年。这有利于主要记忆体生产商,却也使苹果在推出新机之际,必须持续面对零组件成本与供货压力。

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    "content": "<p>外媒报导,苹果 (AAPL-US) 即将举行年度 iPhone 新机发表会,美国银行分析师 Wamsi Mohan 的最新研究显示,苹果股价过往常在新品亮相后出现温和的「利多出尽」卖压,随后于 30 至 60 天内回升。今年市场反应则将取决于<em><strong>产品涨价幅度、Siri AI 功能的采用情况,以及苹果对折叠手机需求</strong></em>的说明。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6601232/l/eed0eaacf358695b209442e3d2399500.jpg\" alt=\"iPhone发表会后苹果股价怎么走?美银揭历史表现、今年三大观察重点\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<p>Mohan 统计,自 2007 年首款 iPhone 发表以来,苹果股价曾有 17 次在发表会后 60 天录得上涨。其中表现最佳的是 2019 年 iPhone 11 发表后,股价在 60 天内上涨 20%。</p>\n\n<p>本次发表会前,苹果周二 (8 日) 收跌 1.17%,报每股 316.22 美元,连续两个交易日收黑。</p>\n\n<figure><img alt=\"(图:苹果)\" data-height=\"428\" data-mime=\"image/jpeg\" data-ratio=\"1.7757009345794392\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6601232/m/981906f5f232ba7819e4f3180ae2c133.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6601232/l/981906f5f232ba7819e4f3180ae2c133.jpg\" srcset=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6601232/l/981906f5f232ba7819e4f3180ae2c133.jpg 1x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6601232/xl/981906f5f232ba7819e4f3180ae2c133.jpg 2x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6601232/xxl/981906f5f232ba7819e4f3180ae2c133.jpg 3x\">\n<figcaption>(图:苹果)</figcaption>\n</figure>\n\n<p>苹果将于 9 月 9 日在贾伯斯剧院举行「Surprise and Shine」(惊喜耀现,开新篇) 发表会。这也是特纳斯 (John Ternus) 本月接替库克 (Tim Cook)、出任执行长后,首度主持产品发表会。</p>\n\n<p>产品焦点是苹果首款折叠 iPhone,外界推测将命名为 iPhone Ultra。</p>\n\n<p>花旗分析师预估,这款手机起售价将超过 2,000 美元,今年下半年销量约为 500 万支,2027 年第一季再售出约 230 万支。苹果也预计推出完整的 iPhone 18 Pro 系列、新款 Apple Watch,以及更新的 AI 软体功能。</p>\n\n<p>不过,新品定价背后也反映成本压力。除了售价较高的折叠机型,一般 iPhone 18 机型也被预期将涨价,苹果正设法因应记忆体价格大幅上升对获利率的冲击。</p>\n\n<p>记忆体问题同时牵动苹果的供货与获利。公司 7 月底对本季营收提出审慎展望,主要原因是无法取得足够记忆体晶片以满足需求;最近一季的获利率也受到记忆体涨价影响,较前一季承受明显压力。</p>\n\n<p>库克在卸任前最后一次财报电话会议上表示,苹果是在不情愿的情况下调涨价格。</p>\n\n<p>他将记忆体价格急升形容为「百年一遇的洪灾」,并预期相关压力仍将持续。</p>\n\n<p>这波供应吃紧与 AI 基础建设热潮密切相关。</p>\n\n<p>辉达、微软、亚马逊与 Meta 等企业加速投入,带动 AI 伺服器使用的高频宽记忆体 (HBM) 与先进 DRAM 需求持续超过供给。</p>\n\n<p>SK 海力士、三星与美光今年的高阶 AI 记忆体产能大多已售罄,进一步推高价格,也增强供应商的议价能力。</p>\n\n<p>报导指出,专家预期记忆体供应限制将延续至 2027 年。这有利于主要记忆体生产商,却也使苹果在推出新机之际,必须持续面对零组件成本与供货压力。</p><div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n  <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n  <ul>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/AI/article-9280.html\" title=\"AI算力狂潮助记忆体进入卖方市场!美银:三星长协「限跌不限涨」现货价格Q4前持续反弹\">AI算力狂潮助记忆体进入卖方市场!美银:三星长协「限跌不限涨」现货价格Q4前持续反弹</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/AI/article-7764.html\" title=\"HBM封装技术转向!三星、SK海力士同步决定:HBM4暂不导入混合键合\">HBM封装技术转向!三星、SK海力士同步决定:HBM4暂不导入混合键合</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/AI/article-9511.html\" title=\"南韩打炒房式降杠杆奏效!杠杆ETF交易急冻 晶片股波动降温\">南韩打炒房式降杠杆奏效!杠杆ETF交易急冻 晶片股波动降温</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/AI/article-21298.html\" title=\"中国AI算力偏重短剧?业者与官媒驳斥「发展跑偏论」\">中国AI算力偏重短剧?业者与官媒驳斥「发展跑偏论」</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/AI/article-11723.html\" title=\"Cybercab光环退烧!特斯拉股价现在更看SpaceX?两家公司走势同步度达2/3\">Cybercab光环退烧!特斯拉股价现在更看SpaceX?两家公司走势同步度达2/3</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/AI/article-13704.html\" title=\"上市第11个交易日 中国「人形机器人第一股」股价腰斩\">上市第11个交易日 中国「人形机器人第一股」股价腰斩</a></li>\n  </ul>\n</div>",
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    "createdAt": "2026-09-08T22:10:37.000Z",
    "updatedAt": "2026-10-23T12:18:25.000Z"
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