〈纽约汇市〉美元持平交易员等待华许演讲释放利率讯号

美元周四(27日)变动不大，外汇市场参与者消化前一交易日喜忧参半的通膨数据，并在联准会(Fed)主席华许(Kevin Warsh)备受关注的演讲前一天避免大举押注。

美元本周已从前一周近1%跌幅中略为回升。当时美国公债遭遇大幅抛售，投资人采取所谓的「货币贬值交易」策略，导致美元承压。

纽约尾盘，追踪美元兑六种主要货币的美元指数(DXY)数持平于99.15。

周三公布的数据显示，联准会偏好的通膨指标——核心个人消费支出(PCE)物价指数——7月月增0.2%、年增3.3%，均符合市场预期。

月增幅较6月加快，年增幅则维持不变。3.3%的年增幅明显高于联准会2%的长期目标。若以整体PCE来看，7月月增与年增幅均略高于市场预期。

另外，美国第二季实质国内生产毛额(GDP)成长率第二次估值维持1.5%不变。综合数据显示，美国经济仍具韧性，同时通膨持续偏高，使联准会在评估后续经济指标时，有更大空间在9月维持利率不变。这些指标也显示，进一步升息并非完全不可能。

在此背景下，货币政策观察人士将密切关注联准会主席华许周五在杰克森霍尔(Jackson Hole)年会上的主题演讲。华尔街迄今对华许公开谈话的反应大多偏负面，因为这位联准会主席一直未提供任何利率方向或应对通膨的具体措施。Macquarie全球外汇与利率策略师Thierry Wizman表示，「华许在杰克森霍尔发表结构性偏鹰派演讲的可能性，高于发表鸽派演讲。鸽派演讲将与FOMC投票者中值立场的转变背道而驰，也会忽略其他央行释放的鹰派讯号，甚至无视美国通膨居高不下且具黏性的数据。」

他表示，「但如果演讲更加平衡，强调全球冲突、去全球化、人口结构不利趋势、气候变迁等结构性不利因素，将更符合近期的市场氛围，也能让华许重新回到主流阵营。」

Wizman补充，「这也将再次为联准会带来一些『公信力』。美元可能上涨，殖利率曲线则会趋于平坦，甚至可能进一步带动股市上涨。」

南韩升息后韩元走强 加币回升

其他主要货币方面，南韩央行(BoK)升息后，韩元兑美元走强，美元兑韩元下跌0.3%至1,381.45。

南韩央行连续第二季升息25个基点，将基准利率调升至3.00%。南韩央行同时将2026年经济成长预测从2.6%上调至3.3%，并暗示年底利率可能达到3.25%，为韩元提供明确的殖利率支撑。

加币回升，美元兑加币下跌0.1%。不过，由于美加贸易谈判破裂，加上华盛顿与渥太华互相祭出关税措施，加币本周仍可能出现大幅下跌。

美国总统川普周四在签署将安大略湖(Lake Ontario)重新命名为「美国湖」(Lake America)的行政命令后告诉记者，「加拿大官员对我们非常不好。他们很讨厌……人们常常问我：『谁是最难谈贸易的对象？』我会说：『这很简单——加拿大。』他们觉得自己理所当然，而我们不能接受这种情况。」

欧元略低于持平线，报1.1650美元，徘徊在逾一周低点附近。稍早公布的欧洲央行(ECB)7月会议纪要显示，政策制定者认为，为因应伊朗战争带来的影响，可能还需要再升息一次。

欧洲央行在6月升息后，7月维持利率不变，这是该行近三年来首次升息后的按兵不动。

截至台湾时间周五 (28 日) 约 5:50 价格:

美元指数报 99.1304。-0.0033%
欧元兑美元 (EUR/USD)汇率报1欧元兑1.1652美元。+0.0086%
英镑兑美元 (GBP/USD)汇率报1英镑兑1.3591美元。-0.0147%
澳币兑美元 (AUD/USD)汇率报1澳币兑0.7192美元。-0.0417%
美元兑加币 (USD/CAD)汇率报1美元兑1.3850加币。-0.0361%
美元兑日元 (USD/JPY)汇率报1美元兑159.3800日元。-0.0125%

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"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6589349/l/35993201218fc5e044ebc4af2207203e.jpg", "content": "美元周四(27日)变动不大，外汇市场参与者消化前一交易日喜忧参半的通膨数据，并在联准会(Fed)主席华许(Kevin Warsh)备受关注的演讲前一天避免大举押注。 \n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6589349/l/35993201218fc5e044ebc4af2207203e.jpg\" alt=\"〈纽约汇市〉美元持平交易员等待华许演讲释放利率讯号\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n美元本周已从前一周近1%跌幅中略为回升。当时美国公债遭遇大幅抛售，投资人采取所谓的「货币贬值交易」策略，导致美元承压。\n\n纽约尾盘，追踪美元兑六种主要货币的美元指数(DXY)数持平于99.15。\n\n周三公布的数据显示，联准会偏好的通膨指标——核心个人消费支出(PCE)物价指数——7月月增0.2%、年增3.3%，均符合市场预期。\n\n月增幅较6月加快，年增幅则维持不变。3.3%的年增幅明显高于联准会2%的长期目标。若以整体PCE来看，7月月增与年增幅均略高于市场预期。\n\n另外，美国第二季实质国内生产毛额(GDP)成长率第二次估值维持1.5%不变。综合数据显示，美国经济仍具韧性，同时通膨持续偏高，使联准会在评估后续经济指标时，有更大空间在9月维持利率不变。这些指标也显示，进一步升息并非完全不可能。\n\n在此背景下，货币政策观察人士将密切关注联准会主席华许周五在杰克森霍尔(Jackson Hole)年会上的主题演讲。华尔街迄今对华许公开谈话的反应大多偏负面，因为这位联准会主席一直未提供任何利率方向或应对通膨的具体措施。Macquarie全球外汇与利率策略师Thierry Wizman表示，「华许在杰克森霍尔发表结构性偏鹰派演讲的可能性，高于发表鸽派演讲。鸽派演讲将与FOMC投票者中值立场的转变背道而驰，也会忽略其他央行释放的鹰派讯号，甚至无视美国通膨居高不下且具黏性的数据。」\n\n他表示，「但如果演讲更加平衡，强调全球冲突、去全球化、人口结构不利趋势、气候变迁等结构性不利因素，将更符合近期的市场氛围，也能让华许重新回到主流阵营。」\n\nWizman补充，「这也将再次为联准会带来一些『公信力』。美元可能上涨，殖利率曲线则会趋于平坦，甚至可能进一步带动股市上涨。」\n\n南韩升息后韩元走强 加币回升\n\n其他主要货币方面，南韩央行(BoK)升息后，韩元兑美元走强，美元兑韩元下跌0.3%至1,381.45。\n\n南韩央行连续第二季升息25个基点，将基准利率调升至3.00%。南韩央行同时将2026年经济成长预测从2.6%上调至3.3%，并暗示年底利率可能达到3.25%，为韩元提供明确的殖利率支撑。\n\n加币回升，美元兑加币下跌0.1%。不过，由于美加贸易谈判破裂，加上华盛顿与渥太华互相祭出关税措施，加币本周仍可能出现大幅下跌。\n\n美国总统川普周四在签署将安大略湖(Lake Ontario)重新命名为「美国湖」(Lake America)的行政命令后告诉记者，「加拿大官员对我们非常不好。他们很讨厌……人们常常问我：『谁是最难谈贸易的对象？』我会说：『这很简单——加拿大。』他们觉得自己理所当然，而我们不能接受这种情况。」\n\n欧元略低于持平线，报1.1650美元，徘徊在逾一周低点附近。稍早公布的欧洲央行(ECB)7月会议纪要显示，政策制定者认为，为因应伊朗战争带来的影响，可能还需要再升息一次。\n\n欧洲央行在6月升息后，7月维持利率不变，这是该行近三年来首次升息后的按兵不动。\n\n截至台湾时间周五 (28 日) 约 5:50 价格:\n\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/index/GI/DXY\">美元指数</a>报 99.1304。-0.0033%</li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/eurusd\">欧元</a>兑美元 (EUR/USD)汇率报1<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/eurusd\">欧元</a>兑1.1652美元。+0.0086%</li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/gbpusd\">英镑</a>兑美元 (GBP/USD)汇率报1<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/gbpusd\">英镑</a>兑1.3591美元。-0.0147%</li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/audusd\">澳币</a>兑美元 (AUD/USD)汇率报1<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/audusd\">澳币</a>兑0.7192美元。-0.0417%</li>\n<li>美元兑<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/cadusd\">加币</a> (USD/CAD)汇率报1美元兑1.3850<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/cadusd\">加币</a>。-0.0361%</li>\n<li>美元兑<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/jpyusd\">日元</a> (USD/JPY)汇率报1美元兑159.3800<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/jpyusd\">日元</a>。-0.0125%</li>\n</ul><div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-5218.html\" 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