〈纽约汇市〉美元走强美伊冲突升温、债市遭抛售

美元周二(1日)走强，在油价飙升及债券市场遭抛售背景下，受到避险需求支撑。另一方面，美国财政部长贝森特(Scott Bessent)敦促东京升息后，日元走弱，欧元则在通膨数据公布后下滑。

纽约尾盘，追踪美元兑六种主要货币的美元指数(DXY)上涨0.3%，报99.69。

美国中央司令部(CENTCOM)周二表示，美军已对伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队(IRGC)目标发动攻击，伊朗官媒则表示，攻击击中葛希姆岛(Qeshm)一座工厂，以及霍尔木兹甘省(Hormozgan)的非军事目标，美元因此受到避险买盘支撑。

在上周末之前，美国与伊朗一直因霍尔木兹海峡的控制权问题陷入僵局，而美国总统川普似乎已将策略从军事打击转向经济战。

然而，周日军事行动重新恢复。这是自7月以来首次恢复直接军事行动。美国中央司令部表示，美军对在霍尔木兹海峡布设水雷的伊朗革命卫队部队采取了「有限且精准的行动」。

伊朗随后展开报复，对位于约旦的美军基地发动攻击。约旦官媒则另行报导，约旦成功拦截并摧毁8枚飞弹。

川普周二表示，最新一轮攻击是为了回应伊朗布雷行动，以及对约旦军事基地发动的攻击。

油价周一已经上涨，周二在美军发动新一轮攻击后涨势进一步扩大。11月到期的布兰特(Brent)原油期货最新上涨5.3%，至每桶95.25美元，10月到期的美国西德州中级原油期货(WTI)突破每桶90美元，创6月11日以来首次。

Macquarie外汇与利率策略师Thierry Wizman表示，「相对而言，美元仍能从较高的原油价格中受益。当原油价格偏高时，美国的贸易条件改善、实质所得增加，贸易逆差也会缩小。过去的情况也显示，即使原油供应受到不利冲击，美元仍具一定的承受能力。」

债券遭抛售

周二美国公债殖利率及其他主要债市的抛售进一步加剧，市场对通膨与财政债务的担忧升温。美国10年期公债殖利率升至2023年11月以来最高水准，2年期公债殖利率也升至2024年7月以来最高。

自联准会(Fed)主席华许(Kevin Warsh)周五在杰克森霍尔(Jackson Hole)年度经济政策研讨会发表偏鹰的主题演讲后，市场对9月升息的预期大幅升温。

本周市场原本聚焦通膨，但现在货币政策观察人士也将注意力转向美国劳动市场，希望从最新数据中寻找联准会未来政策方向的更多线索。

周二公布的最新职位空缺与劳动力流动调查(JOLTS)显示，美国7月职缺数为727.1万个，低于市场预期的733万，但仍高于经下修后的6月718.2万。

虽然7月职缺数低于预期，但职缺数较6月增加，而且整体水准仍接近4月创下的两年高点758.5万，显示美国就业市场仍具韧性。

这让联准会在是否立即收紧货币政策方面获得一些喘息空间，市场利率预期也反映了这点。

根据CME FedWatch工具，JOLTS数据公布后，市场预期联准会9月升息1码的机率约为68%，维持利率不变的机率则接近32%，两者与前一日相比都没有太大变化。

现在市场焦点已转向周五公布的美国8月非农就业报告。

欧元走弱 日元连续第三日再度触及160

其他主要货币方面，欧元兑美元下跌0.3%，至1欧元兑1.1587美元。

欧盟统计局(Eurostat)稍早公布数据显示，欧元区8月整体消费者物价指数(CPI)年增率加速至3.3%，明显高于7月的2.9%。

不过，排除波动较大的能源、食品、酒类及烟草后的核心CPI，年增率意外从2.5%降至2.4%，服务通膨则放缓至3%。

日元兑美元走弱，美元兑日元上涨0.3%，至160.22。

160日元兑1美元是市场高度关注的关卡，过去曾触发日本政府干预汇市，包括7月底日本与美国进行的一次历史性联合干预行动。

美国财政部长贝森特在G20财长会议期间，公开敦促日本银行(BoJ)总裁植田和男(Kazuo Ueda)升息。

贝森特此举被视为释放「安倍经济学」(Abenomics)时代结束的讯号。他并表示，自己掌握了一些市场目前并不知道、与日本稳定汇率措施有关的「资讯」。

换汇市场随后提高对日本银行9月升息的预期，目前升息机率接近88%。这项偏鹰的政策预期也推动日本10年期公债殖利率突破3%，创1996年8月以来首次。

截至台湾时间周三 (2 日) 约 6:00 价格:

美元指数报 99.6537。-0.0108%
欧元兑美元 (EUR/USD)汇率报1欧元兑1.1593美元。+0.0086%
英镑兑美元 (GBP/USD)汇率报1英镑兑1.3517美元。+0.0074%
澳币兑美元 (AUD/USD)汇率报1澳币兑0.7145美元。+0.0140%
美元兑加币 (USD/CAD)汇率报1美元兑1.3895加币。0.0000%
美元兑日元 (USD/JPY)汇率报1美元兑160.1700日元。-0.0125%

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"", "articleView": null, "source": null, "author": "网络", "description": "美元周二(1日)走强，在油价飙升及债券市场遭抛售背景下，受到避险需求支撑。另一方面，美国财政部长贝森特(Scott Bessent)敦促东京升息后，日元走弱，欧元则在通膨数据公布后下滑。", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6594168/l/692bb0c1149d3e9685b8d91f498e902e.jpg", "content": "美元周二(1日)走强，在油价飙升及债券市场遭抛售背景下，受到避险需求支撑。另一方面，美国财政部长贝森特(Scott Bessent)敦促东京升息后，日元走弱，欧元则在通膨数据公布后下滑。\n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6594168/l/692bb0c1149d3e9685b8d91f498e902e.jpg\" alt=\"〈纽约汇市〉美元走强美伊冲突升温、债市遭抛售\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n纽约尾盘，追踪美元兑六种主要货币的美元指数(DXY)上涨0.3%，报99.69。\n\n美国中央司令部(CENTCOM)周二表示，美军已对伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队(IRGC)目标发动攻击，伊朗官媒则表示，攻击击中葛希姆岛(Qeshm)一座工厂，以及霍尔木兹甘省(Hormozgan)的非军事目标，美元因此受到避险买盘支撑。\n\n在上周末之前，美国与伊朗一直因霍尔木兹海峡的控制权问题陷入僵局，而美国总统川普似乎已将策略从军事打击转向经济战。\n\n然而，周日军事行动重新恢复。这是自7月以来首次恢复直接军事行动。美国中央司令部表示，美军对在霍尔木兹海峡布设水雷的伊朗革命卫队部队采取了「有限且精准的行动」。\n\n伊朗随后展开报复，对位于约旦的美军基地发动攻击。约旦官媒则另行报导，约旦成功拦截并摧毁8枚飞弹。\n\n川普周二表示，最新一轮攻击是为了回应伊朗布雷行动，以及对约旦军事基地发动的攻击。\n\n油价周一已经上涨，周二在美军发动新一轮攻击后涨势进一步扩大。11月到期的布兰特(Brent)原油期货最新上涨5.3%，至每桶95.25美元，10月到期的美国西德州中级原油期货(WTI)突破每桶90美元，创6月11日以来首次。\n\nMacquarie外汇与利率策略师Thierry Wizman表示，「相对而言，美元仍能从较高的原油价格中受益。当原油价格偏高时，美国的贸易条件改善、实质所得增加，贸易逆差也会缩小。过去的情况也显示，即使原油供应受到不利冲击，美元仍具一定的承受能力。」\n\n债券遭抛售\n\n周二美国公债殖利率及其他主要债市的抛售进一步加剧，市场对通膨与财政债务的担忧升温。美国10年期公债殖利率升至2023年11月以来最高水准，2年期公债殖利率也升至2024年7月以来最高。\n\n自联准会(Fed)主席华许(Kevin Warsh)周五在杰克森霍尔(Jackson Hole)年度经济政策研讨会发表偏鹰的主题演讲后，市场对9月升息的预期大幅升温。\n\n本周市场原本聚焦通膨，但现在货币政策观察人士也将注意力转向美国劳动市场，希望从最新数据中寻找联准会未来政策方向的更多线索。\n\n周二公布的最新职位空缺与劳动力流动调查(JOLTS)显示，美国7月职缺数为727.1万个，低于市场预期的733万，但仍高于经下修后的6月718.2万。\n\n虽然7月职缺数低于预期，但职缺数较6月增加，而且整体水准仍接近4月创下的两年高点758.5万，显示美国就业市场仍具韧性。\n\n这让联准会在是否立即收紧货币政策方面获得一些喘息空间，市场利率预期也反映了这点。\n\n根据CME FedWatch工具，JOLTS数据公布后，市场预期联准会9月升息1码的机率约为68%，维持利率不变的机率则接近32%，两者与前一日相比都没有太大变化。\n\n现在市场焦点已转向周五公布的美国8月非农就业报告。\n\n欧元走弱 日元连续第三日再度触及160\n\n其他主要货币方面，欧元兑美元下跌0.3%，至1欧元兑1.1587美元。\n\n欧盟统计局(Eurostat)稍早公布数据显示，欧元区8月整体消费者物价指数(CPI)年增率加速至3.3%，明显高于7月的2.9%。\n\n不过，排除波动较大的能源、食品、酒类及烟草后的核心CPI，年增率意外从2.5%降至2.4%，服务通膨则放缓至3%。\n\n日元兑美元走弱，美元兑日元上涨0.3%，至160.22。\n\n160日元兑1美元是市场高度关注的关卡，过去曾触发日本政府干预汇市，包括7月底日本与美国进行的一次历史性联合干预行动。\n\n美国财政部长贝森特在G20财长会议期间，公开敦促日本银行(BoJ)总裁植田和男(Kazuo Ueda)升息。\n\n贝森特此举被视为释放「安倍经济学」(Abenomics)时代结束的讯号。他并表示，自己掌握了一些市场目前并不知道、与日本稳定汇率措施有关的「资讯」。\n\n换汇市场随后提高对日本银行9月升息的预期，目前升息机率接近88%。这项偏鹰的政策预期也推动日本10年期公债殖利率突破3%，创1996年8月以来首次。\n\n截至台湾时间周三 (2 日) 约 6:00 价格:\n\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/index/GI/DXY\">美元指数</a>报 99.6537。-0.0108%</li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/eurusd\">欧元</a>兑美元 (EUR/USD)汇率报1<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/eurusd\">欧元</a>兑1.1593美元。+0.0086%</li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/gbpusd\">英镑</a>兑美元 (GBP/USD)汇率报1<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/gbpusd\">英镑</a>兑1.3517美元。+0.0074%</li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/audusd\">澳币</a>兑美元 (AUD/USD)汇率报1<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/audusd\">澳币</a>兑0.7145美元。+0.0140%</li>\n<li>美元兑<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/cadusd\">加币</a> (USD/CAD)汇率报1美元兑1.3895<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/cadusd\">加币</a>。0.0000%</li>\n<li>美元兑<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/jpyusd\">日元</a> (USD/JPY)汇率报1美元兑160.1700<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/jpyusd\">日元</a>。-0.0125%</li>\n</ul><div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n 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