本周操盘笔记：美CPI牵动Fed升息决策、苹果新CEO首场发表会、AI行情聚焦甲骨文财报

本周国际大事包括美国通膨数据，包括消费者物价指数(CPI)和生产者物价指数(PPI)，苹果新任执行长首场新品发表会，欧洲央行(ECB)利率决策，全球债市走向，以及云端巨擘甲骨文(Oracle)(ORCL-US)财报。

本周操盘笔记 (20260907-0912)

1、CPI、PPI牵动Fed决策

由于美国市场周一(7日)适逢劳动节休市，本周交易日缩短，周四公布的生产者物价指数(PPI)将让投资人率先掌握8月通膨趋势，隔天则公布市场高度关注的消费者物价指数(CPI)，这可能成为联准会(Fed)本月15-16日是否升息的决定性因素。

经济学家预估，8月CPI将月增0.4%，扣除波动较大的食品与能源价格后，核心CPI预估月增0.2%。

过去几年，美国通膨率一直稳定高于Fed 2%的年度目标。不过，前一个月公布的数据显示物价几乎没有上升。

Fed主席华许(Kevin Warsh)8月底在杰克森霍尔年会发表谈话后，市场对升息的押注升高，而美国上周五公布强劲的非农就业报告后，升息理由进一步增强。不过，Fed是否真的升息仍未明朗。

Fed理事华勒(Christopher Waller)则已表态，如果即将公布的数据证实通膨压力正在降温，他倾向主张维持利率不变。

TD Wealth首席投资策略师Sid Vaidya说：「Fed官员近几个月来一直强调维持物价稳定的决心，而如果通膨未能取得足够进展，这种说法最终必须透过实际行动来证明。CPI肯定会朝某个方向推动市场……因此这份报告的重要性极高。」

2、苹果新任CEO首场新品发表会

苹果公司(AAPL-US)将于台湾时间本周四(9月10日)凌晨1点，举行「Surprise and Shine」秋季发表会，由9月1日正式接任执行长的特纳斯(John Ternus)首次主持。

除了首款折叠iPhone，这场活动也将替苹果2026年至2029年后的庞大新品浪潮揭开序幕，包括触控OLED MacBook Pro、OLED iPad、智慧家庭中枢、AI眼镜及桌上型机器人。

2027年适逢iPhone问世20周年，苹果将推出大改款高阶iPhone，并持续发展第二代折叠iPhone。苹果也将进军智慧眼镜市场，挑战Meta(META-US)。

2028年后，苹果计划把智慧家庭中枢延伸至桌上型机器人，并持续布局AI吊坠、OLED Mac及AR眼镜。这波新品能否如期推出仍有变数，但将成为特纳斯上任后的重要考验，也可能决定苹果下一个10年的成长方向。

3、欧洲央行再度升息？

欧洲央行(ECB)本周四几乎确定将再升息1码(25个基点)，与6月的决策相同。

市场仍押注ECB到12月前还会再升息一次，明年也将再升息一次。但经济学家认为，ECB目前应该已经暂停升息，而今年夏季公债殖利率的大幅上升，可能已经带来一部分的紧缩效果。

此外，ECB总裁拉加德(Christine Lagarde)对美国「卖出欧元、买进日元」的相关说法会有什么回应，也值得关注。

4、债市震荡但尚未失控

近来全球各地、不同期限的公债殖利率持续飙升，推高政府、企业与家庭的借贷成本，也让居高不下的股市估值面临挑战。

这波债市卖压受到多重因素推动。中东战争推升能源价格、拉高通膨预期，也让交易员开始押注央行可能进一步升息，带动美国与欧元区短天期公债殖利率升至数年来高点。

与此同时，10年期公债殖利率正逼近更重要的关卡，多数主要市场的30年期公债殖利率则攀抵逾10多年来高点附近，反映交易员的焦虑：各国政府多年来持续大举举债，如今融资难度正愈来愈高。

美国财政部上月为压低殖利率宣布，将至少把较长天期公债的回购规模提高一倍，首轮操作预定于本周三进行。

庆幸的是，尽管殖利率水准相当惊人，至少目前为止，市场走势仍算有序。

5、AI行情聚焦甲骨文财报

超大型云端服务商甲骨文(ORCL-US)本周四公布财报，则可能重新让市场聚焦AI交易行情。

包括半导体股在内，AI交易中有一部分涨势最强劲的股票近几周已降温，但其他类股仍持续支撑标普500指数。

Investment Managers Solutions投资组合策略师Garrett Melson说：「这仍是一个正在消化7月动能行情退潮后留下的残局、寻找新领涨族群，同时也在寻找能推动下一波行情的新题材的股市。」

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(20260907-0912)</strong></em></p>\n\n<h6>1、CPI、PPI牵动Fed决策</h6>\n\n<p>由于美国市场周一(7日)适逢劳动节休市，本周交易日缩短，周四公布的生产者物价指数(PPI)将让投资人率先掌握8月通膨趋势，隔天则公布市场高度关注的消费者物价指数(CPI)，这可能成为联准会(Fed)本月15-16日是否升息的决定性因素。</p>\n\n<p>经济学家预估，8月CPI将月增0.4%，扣除波动较大的食品与能源价格后，核心CPI预估月增0.2%。</p>\n\n<p>过去几年，美国通膨率一直稳定高于Fed 2%的年度目标。不过，前一个月公布的数据显示物价几乎没有上升。</p>\n\n<p>Fed主席华许(Kevin Warsh)8月底在杰克森霍尔年会发表谈话后，市场对升息的押注升高，而美国上周五公布强劲的非农就业报告后，升息理由进一步增强。不过，Fed是否真的升息仍未明朗。</p>\n\n<p>Fed理事华勒(Christopher Waller)则已表态，如果即将公布的数据证实通膨压力正在降温，他倾向主张维持利率不变。</p>\n\n<p>TD Wealth首席投资策略师Sid Vaidya说：「Fed官员近几个月来一直强调维持物价稳定的决心，而如果通膨未能取得足够进展，这种说法最终必须透过实际行动来证明。CPI肯定会朝某个方向推动市场……因此这份报告的重要性极高。」</p>\n\n<h6>2、苹果新任CEO首场新品发表会</h6>\n\n<p>苹果公司(AAPL-US)将于台湾时间本周四(9月10日)凌晨1点，举行「Surprise and Shine」秋季发表会，由9月1日正式接任执行长的特纳斯(John Ternus)首次主持。</p>\n\n<p>除了首款折叠iPhone，这场活动也将替苹果2026年至2029年后的庞大新品浪潮揭开序幕，包括触控OLED MacBook Pro、OLED iPad、智慧家庭中枢、AI眼镜及桌上型机器人。</p>\n\n<p>2027年适逢iPhone问世20周年，苹果将推出大改款高阶iPhone，并持续发展第二代折叠iPhone。苹果也将进军智慧眼镜市场，挑战Meta(META-US)。</p>\n\n<p>2028年后，苹果计划把智慧家庭中枢延伸至桌上型机器人，并持续布局AI吊坠、OLED Mac及AR眼镜。这波新品能否如期推出仍有变数，但将成为特纳斯上任后的重要考验，也可能决定苹果下一个10年的成长方向。</p>\n\n<h6>3、欧洲央行再度升息？</h6>\n\n<p>欧洲央行(ECB)本周四几乎确定将再升息1码(25个基点)，与6月的决策相同。</p>\n\n<p>市场仍押注ECB到12月前还会再升息一次，明年也将再升息一次。但经济学家认为，ECB目前应该已经暂停升息，而今年夏季公债殖利率的大幅上升，可能已经带来一部分的紧缩效果。</p>\n\n<p>此外，ECB总裁拉加德(Christine Lagarde)对美国「卖出欧元、买进日元」的相关说法会有什么回应，也值得关注。</p>\n\n<h6>4、债市震荡但尚未失控</h6>\n\n<p>近来全球各地、不同期限的公债殖利率持续飙升，推高政府、企业与家庭的借贷成本，也让居高不下的股市估值面临挑战。</p>\n\n<p>这波债市卖压受到多重因素推动。中东战争推升能源价格、拉高通膨预期，也让交易员开始押注央行可能进一步升息，带动美国与欧元区短天期公债殖利率升至数年来高点。</p>\n\n<p>与此同时，10年期公债殖利率正逼近更重要的关卡，多数主要市场的30年期公债殖利率则攀抵逾10多年来高点附近，反映交易员的焦虑：各国政府多年来持续大举举债，如今融资难度正愈来愈高。</p>\n\n<p>美国财政部上月为压低殖利率宣布，将至少把较长天期公债的回购规模提高一倍，首轮操作预定于本周三进行。</p>\n\n<p>庆幸的是，尽管殖利率水准相当惊人，至少目前为止，市场走势仍算有序。</p>\n\n<h6>5、AI行情聚焦甲骨文财报</h6>\n\n<p>超大型云端服务商甲骨文(ORCL-US)本周四公布财报，则可能重新让市场聚焦AI交易行情。</p>\n\n<p>包括半导体股在内，AI交易中有一部分涨势最强劲的股票近几周已降温，但其他类股仍持续支撑标普500指数。</p>\n\n<p>Investment Managers Solutions投资组合策略师Garrett Melson说：「这仍是一个正在消化7月动能行情退潮后留下的残局、寻找新领涨族群，同时也在寻找能推动下一波行情的新题材的股市。」</p>\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"2438\" data-mime=\"image/jpeg\" data-ratio=\"0.3117309269893355\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6598431/m/b6792ad727f921a10f22ba5558d56eec.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" 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1、CPI、PPI牵动Fed决策

2、苹果新任CEO首场新品发表会

3、欧洲央行再度升息？

4、债市震荡但尚未失控

5、AI行情聚焦甲骨文财报

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