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〈纽约汇市〉美元连续第3周上涨 美债殖利率与Fed鹰派立场支撑

2026-10-03 08:11:46 网络 阅读(3)

美元周五(2日)下跌,但仍连续第4周兑欧元走升。在欧洲政府公债遭遇抛售、以及市场预期联准会(Fed)将维持鹰派升息立场的背景下,美国公债殖利率维持高档,为美元提供支撑。

〈纽约汇市〉美元连续第3周上涨 美债殖利率与Fed鹰派立场支撑

纽约尾盘,追踪美元兑六种主要货币的美元指数(DXY)下跌0.1%,报101.88,仍连续第3周上涨。

美国公布9月就业成长低于经济学家预期、失业率小幅升至4.2%后,美元近期部分涨幅有所收敛。10年期美国公债殖利率也在数据公布后下滑,随后回升5.14个基点至5.285%。

尽管如此,美元仍受到多项因素支撑,包括美国公债殖利率维持在数十年高点附近、部分欧洲国家财政前景的疑虑升温,以及油价上涨。原油价格走高促使部分投资人降低对主要能源进口国货币的曝险,包括欧元与日元。

欧元对美元上涨0.13%,至1.12580美元。欧元兑美元连续第4周下跌,创下2025年5月中旬以来最长连续周跌势。

野村G10外汇策略主管Dominic Bunning表示,「如果把这些就业数据放在一起看,我认为这其实是一组相当理想的金发女孩(Goldilocks)数据:经济活动仍相当具韧性,但并未产生明显的通膨压力。」

他表示,「从整体经济角度来看,这是个不错的背景。对整体风险资产及高Beta货币而言,这应该是相对有利的数据。这对联准会利率定价的影响可能也不大,但至少降低了联准会是否会在10月再次升息的尾部风险。」

美国央行在9月政策会议结束后升息,并释放进一步升息的讯号。尽管美国总统川普一再要求降低借贷成本,联准会主席华许(Kevin Warsh)仍重申货币政策的独立性。市场对此做出反应,提高了对联准会进一步紧缩政策的押注。

根据CME Group的FedWatch工具,交易员目前预期联准会本月稍晚维持利率不变的机率为86%,高于一周前的36%。

美元兑瑞郎下跌0.30%,至0.8285瑞郎。

美元兑日元也下跌0.15%,至每美元157.81日元,但仍连续第3周上涨。

欧洲市场的担忧

欧洲国家周五同意释放柴油库存。美国总统川普此前曾施压各国政府采取这项措施,希望压低与伊朗战争相关、持续飙升的燃料价格。

未来几个月欧元区通膨率可能进一步上升,使欧洲央行(ECB)面临升息压力。

近几周,法国与义大利政府公债持续承受卖压,市场预期政策利率将上升,加上2027年大选逼近、政治风险升高,使市场更加谨慎。法国10年期公债殖利率周四飙升至2002年以来最高水准。

周五,法国10年期公债殖利率相较避险性较高的德国公债殖利率溢价扩大至150个基点以上,创2011年底以来最高,因市场对法国财政状况与政治动荡的担忧加剧。

欧元兑瑞郎下跌0.15%,至0.9327瑞郎。

欧元兑日元则持平于177.67日元。

截至台湾时间周六 (3 日) 约 6:20 价格:

  • 美元指数报 101.9303。-0.1076%
  • 欧元兑美元 (EUR/USD)汇率报1欧元兑1.1251美元。+0.0801%
  • 英镑兑美元 (GBP/USD)汇率报1英镑兑1.3235美元。+0.3031%
  • 澳币兑美元 (AUD/USD)汇率报1澳币兑0.6954美元。+0.3318%
  • 美元兑加币 (USD/CAD)汇率报1美元兑1.4247加币。+0.1758%
  • 美元兑日元 (USD/JPY)汇率报1美元兑157.8200日元。-0.1645%

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法国、义大利公债遭卖压,法国10年债殖利率溢价扩至150基点以上,欧元续受压",
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    "content": "<p>美元周五(2日)下跌,但仍连续第4周兑欧元走升。在欧洲政府公债遭遇抛售、以及市场预期联准会(Fed)将维持鹰派升息立场的背景下,美国公债殖利率维持高档,为美元提供支撑。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6620629/l/0f9e5fb83375e20d2bd71f3c636f1c6d.jpg\" alt=\"〈纽约汇市〉美元连续第3周上涨 美债殖利率与Fed鹰派立场支撑\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<p><em><strong>纽约尾盘,追踪美元兑六种主要货币的美元指数(DXY)下跌0.1%,报101.88,仍连续第3周上涨。</strong></em></p>\n\n<p>美国公布9月就业成长低于经济学家预期、失业率小幅升至4.2%后,美元近期部分涨幅有所收敛。10年期美国公债殖利率也在数据公布后下滑,随后回升5.14个基点至5.285%。</p>\n\n<p>尽管如此,美元仍受到多项因素支撑,包括美国公债殖利率维持在数十年高点附近、部分欧洲国家财政前景的疑虑升温,以及油价上涨。原油价格走高促使部分投资人降低对主要能源进口国货币的曝险,包括欧元与日元。</p>\n\n<p>欧元对美元上涨0.13%,至1.12580美元。欧元兑美元连续第4周下跌,创下2025年5月中旬以来最长连续周跌势。</p>\n\n<p>野村G10外汇策略主管Dominic Bunning表示,「如果把这些就业数据放在一起看,我认为这其实是一组相当理想的金发女孩(Goldilocks)数据:经济活动仍相当具韧性,但并未产生明显的通膨压力。」</p>\n\n<p>他表示,「从整体经济角度来看,这是个不错的背景。对整体风险资产及高Beta货币而言,这应该是相对有利的数据。这对联准会利率定价的影响可能也不大,但至少降低了联准会是否会在10月再次升息的尾部风险。」</p>\n\n<p>美国央行在9月政策会议结束后升息,并释放进一步升息的讯号。尽管美国总统川普一再要求降低借贷成本,联准会主席华许(Kevin Warsh)仍重申货币政策的独立性。市场对此做出反应,提高了对联准会进一步紧缩政策的押注。</p>\n\n<p>根据CME Group的FedWatch工具,交易员目前预期联准会本月稍晚维持利率不变的机率为86%,高于一周前的36%。</p>\n\n<p>美元兑瑞郎下跌0.30%,至0.8285瑞郎。</p>\n\n<p>美元兑日元也下跌0.15%,至每美元157.81日元,但仍连续第3周上涨。</p>\n\n<p><em><strong>欧洲市场的担忧</strong></em></p>\n\n<p>欧洲国家周五同意释放柴油库存。美国总统川普此前曾施压各国政府采取这项措施,希望压低与伊朗战争相关、持续飙升的燃料价格。</p>\n\n<p>未来几个月欧元区通膨率可能进一步上升,使欧洲央行(ECB)面临升息压力。</p>\n\n<p>近几周,法国与义大利政府公债持续承受卖压,市场预期政策利率将上升,加上2027年大选逼近、政治风险升高,使市场更加谨慎。法国10年期公债殖利率周四飙升至2002年以来最高水准。</p>\n\n<p>周五,法国10年期公债殖利率相较避险性较高的德国公债殖利率溢价扩大至150个基点以上,创2011年底以来最高,因市场对法国财政状况与政治动荡的担忧加剧。</p>\n\n<p>欧元兑瑞郎下跌0.15%,至0.9327瑞郎。</p>\n\n<p>欧元兑日元则持平于177.67日元。</p>\n\n<p><em><strong>截至台湾时间周六 (3 日) 约 6:20 价格:</strong></em></p>\n\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/index/GI/DXY\">美元指数</a>报 101.9303。-0.1076%</li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/eurusd\">欧元</a>兑美元 (EUR/USD)汇率报1<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/eurusd\">欧元</a>兑1.1251美元。+0.0801%</li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/gbpusd\">英镑</a>兑美元 (GBP/USD)汇率报1<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/gbpusd\">英镑</a>兑1.3235美元。+0.3031%</li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/audusd\">澳币</a>兑美元 (AUD/USD)汇率报1<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/audusd\">澳币</a>兑0.6954美元。+0.3318%</li>\n<li>美元兑<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/cadusd\">加币</a> (USD/CAD)汇率报1美元兑1.4247<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/cadusd\">加币</a>。+0.1758%</li>\n<li>美元兑<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/jpyusd\">日元</a> (USD/JPY)汇率报1美元兑157.8200<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/jpyusd\">日元</a>。-0.1645%</li>\n</ul><div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n  <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n  <ul>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-526.html\" title=\"避险基金押注科技股创历史新高!高盛:AI乐观情绪持续升温\">避险基金押注科技股创历史新高!高盛:AI乐观情绪持续升温</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-17829.html\" title=\"AMD收购World Labs 真正的王牌可能不是你想的那个\">AMD收购World Labs 真正的王牌可能不是你想的那个</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-14002.html\" title=\"AI也爆山寨危机!Anthropic点名月之暗面、DeepSeek等中企「偷师」Claude\">AI也爆山寨危机!Anthropic点名月之暗面、DeepSeek等中企「偷师」Claude</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-6416.html\" title=\"韩股AI热潮引发剧烈震荡 波动率创1998年金融危机以来新高\">韩股AI热潮引发剧烈震荡 波动率创1998年金融危机以来新高</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-7929.html\" title=\"美5大科技巨头加码AI投资 市场警戒:是在空中加油还是强弩之末?\">美5大科技巨头加码AI投资 市场警戒:是在空中加油还是强弩之末?</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-9589.html\" title=\"美拟封杀中国AI光模组中际旭创首当其冲、Coherent与Lumentum大涨\">美拟封杀中国AI光模组中际旭创首当其冲、Coherent与Lumentum大涨</a></li>\n  </ul>\n</div>",
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    "createdAt": "2026-10-02T22:29:04.000Z",
    "updatedAt": "2026-10-03T00:11:46.000Z"
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