〈纽约汇市〉美元维持逾一年高点尽管升息预期略降、公债殖利率回落

美元周三 (24 日) 维持在逾一年高点附近，尽管市场对联准会 (Fed) 升息预期略有降温，但科技股持续承压、风险情绪低迷，仍支撑美元需求。

由于华尔街未能从科技股重挫中明显反弹，美元持续成为市场青睐的避险资产。但随着油价回落至伊朗战争爆发前后的水准，加上荷姆兹海峡 (Strait of Hormuz) 恢复通航，市场下修对联准会进一步收紧货币政策的预期，并重新买进公债，使美国公债殖利率回落。

纽约尾盘，追踪美元兑六种主要货币的美元指数 (DXY) 上涨 0.2%，报 101.58，创下 2025 年 5 月中旬以来最高水准。

联准会上周的政策声明比预期更加鹰派。更新后的经济预测显示，至少半数决策官员预期今年将升息，以因应中东冲突推升油价所带来的通膨压力。

外汇市场随即上修对联准会升息的预期。本周美元指数天天上涨，因较高的利率环境通常有利于美元走强。受联准会转趋鹰派影响，美国公债先前遭抛售，殖利率同步攀升。

然而，随着荷姆兹海峡恢复通航、航运活动改善，近期油价持续下跌，市场对通膨的担忧也有所降温。

根据 CME FedWatch 工具，投资人因此略微下修联准会升息预期。随着债券抛售告一段落，公债殖利率同步回落。10 年期美国公债殖利率下跌 9 个基点至 4.396%，对利率更敏感的 2 年期公债殖利率则下跌 5 个基点至 4.146%。

Interactive Brokers 资深经济学家 José Torres 表示，「荷姆兹海峡商业航运逐渐恢复，带动公债反弹，原因是油价跌破每桶 70 美元，使市场对通膨的担忧降温。」「市场对价格压力的预期改善，推动固定收益市场表现强劲，殖利率呈现『牛市趋平』走势，其中长天期公债殖利率下降幅度更大。」

Torres 也指出，短天期殖利率跌幅相对有限，加上美元持续走强，代表新任联准会主席华许 (Kevin Warsh) 不太可能因能源价格回落就改变鹰派立场。

他认为，华许更希望看到商品与服务通膨全面降温后，才可能放缓货币紧缩政策。

科技股震荡推升美元需求 市场聚焦 PCE 数据

市场焦点已转向周四即将公布的重要美国经济数据，以寻找联准会后续政策方向的线索。其中最受关注的是 5 月核心个人消费支出物价指数 (PCE)，该数据被普遍视为联准会最重视的通膨指标。

由于油价已回落至战前水准，分析师普遍预期，5 月 PCE 可能成为本轮中东冲突引发通膨压力的高峰。

RGA Investments 投资长 Rick Gardner 表示，「周四的 PCE 数据对市场的重要性将进一步提高，尤其是华许上周已明确表达维持物价稳定的决心，因此这项数据可能影响市场对升息的预期。」

华尔街科技股周二与周三持续遭到抛售，也进一步支撑美元。

Gardner 表示，「科技股回档显示，投资人开始意识到科技企业的获利预期已相当高，使 7 月财报季重新展开后，要再度超越市场预期将更加困难。我们认为，这波回档更像是市场重新调整预期。」

美元走强压抑其他主要货币

美元持续升值，使欧元跌至一年多来最低水准，也对欧洲与亚洲主要货币形成压力。

欧元兑美元下跌 0.2%，至 1.1358 美元。

欧元区决策官员正面临两难，一方面须处理历经三个月冲突后仍未完全消退的通膨压力，又要面对各项前瞻经济指标显示经济放缓趋势正在扩大。

英镑兑美元下跌 0.2%，至 1.3167 美元。

英国央行 (BoE) 决策官员 Alan Taylor 稍早表示，利率可能维持高档更长时间。此外，在首相施凯尔 (Keir Starmer) 辞职后，政治不确定性也持续压抑英国资产表现。

日元仍徘徊数十年低点附近。美元兑日元上涨 0.2% 至 161.82，持续站稳 160 的重要心理关卡之上。过去东京当局曾在此水准附近出手干预汇市。

市场对日本银行 (BoJ)6 月会议意见摘要反应有限。纪录显示，在上周将利率升至 1.0% 后，多位决策官员仍支持未来进一步升息。

截至台湾时间周四 (25 日) 约 5:20 价格:

美元指数报 101.5845。+0.0098%
欧元兑美元 (EUR/USD) 汇率报 1 欧元兑 1.1355 美元。-0.0264%
英镑兑美元 (GBP/USD) 汇率报 1 英镑兑 1.3162 美元。-0.0380%
澳币兑美元 (AUD/USD) 汇率报 1 澳币兑 0.6898 美元。-0.0290%
美元兑加币 (USD/CAD) 汇率报 1 美元兑 1.4227 加币。-0.0351%
美元兑日元 (USD/JPY) 汇率报 1 美元兑 161.7100 日元。-0.0556%

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月中旬以来最高水准。\n\n联准会上周的政策声明比预期更加鹰派。更新后的经济预测显示，至少半数决策官员预期今年将升息，以因应中东冲突推升油价所带来的通膨压力。\n\n外汇市场随即上修对联准会升息的预期。本周美元指数天天上涨，因较高的利率环境通常有利于美元走强。受联准会转趋鹰派影响，美国公债先前遭抛售，殖利率同步攀升。\n\n然而，随着荷姆兹海峡恢复通航、航运活动改善，近期油价持续下跌，市场对通膨的担忧也有所降温。\n\n根据 CME FedWatch 工具，投资人因此略微下修联准会升息预期。随着债券抛售告一段落，公债殖利率同步回落。10 年期美国公债殖利率下跌 9 个基点至 4.396%，对利率更敏感的 2 年期公债殖利率则下跌 5 个基点至 4.146%。\n\nInteractive Brokers 资深经济学家 José Torres 表示，「荷姆兹海峡商业航运逐渐恢复，带动公债反弹，原因是油价跌破每桶 70 美元，使市场对通膨的担忧降温。」「市场对价格压力的预期改善，推动固定收益市场表现强劲，殖利率呈现『牛市趋平』走势，其中长天期公债殖利率下降幅度更大。」\n\nTorres 也指出，短天期殖利率跌幅相对有限，加上美元持续走强，代表新任联准会主席华许 (Kevin Warsh) 不太可能因能源价格回落就改变鹰派立场。\n\n他认为，华许更希望看到商品与服务通膨全面降温后，才可能放缓货币紧缩政策。\n\n科技股震荡推升美元需求 市场聚焦 PCE 数据\n\n市场焦点已转向周四即将公布的重要美国经济数据，以寻找联准会后续政策方向的线索。其中最受关注的是 5 月核心个人消费支出物价指数 (PCE)，该数据被普遍视为联准会最重视的通膨指标。\n\n由于油价已回落至战前水准，分析师普遍预期，5 月 PCE 可能成为本轮中东冲突引发通膨压力的高峰。\n\nRGA Investments 投资长 Rick Gardner 表示，「周四的 PCE 数据对市场的重要性将进一步提高，尤其是华许上周已明确表达维持物价稳定的决心，因此这项数据可能影响市场对升息的预期。」\n\n华尔街科技股周二与周三持续遭到抛售，也进一步支撑美元。\n\nGardner 表示，「科技股回档显示，投资人开始意识到科技企业的获利预期已相当高，使 7 月财报季重新展开后，要再度超越市场预期将更加困难。我们认为，这波回档更像是市场重新调整预期。」\n\n美元走强压抑其他主要货币\n\n美元持续升值，使欧元跌至一年多来最低水准，也对欧洲与亚洲主要货币形成压力。\n\n欧元兑美元下跌 0.2%，至 1.1358 美元。\n\n欧元区决策官员正面临两难，一方面须处理历经三个月冲突后仍未完全消退的通膨压力，又要面对各项前瞻经济指标显示经济放缓趋势正在扩大。\n\n英镑兑美元下跌 0.2%，至 1.3167 美元。\n\n英国央行 (BoE) 决策官员 Alan Taylor 稍早表示，利率可能维持高档更长时间。此外，在首相施凯尔 (Keir Starmer) 辞职后，政治不确定性也持续压抑英国资产表现。\n\n日元仍徘徊数十年低点附近。美元兑日元上涨 0.2% 至 161.82，持续站稳 160 的重要心理关卡之上。过去东京当局曾在此水准附近出手干预汇市。\n\n市场对日本银行 (BoJ)6 月会议意见摘要反应有限。纪录显示，在上周将利率升至 1.0% 后，多位决策官员仍支持未来进一步升息。\n\n截至台湾时间周四 (25 日) 约 5:20 价格:\n\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/index/GI/DXY\">美元指数</a>报 101.5845。+0.0098% </li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/eurusd\">欧元</a>兑美元 (EUR/USD) 汇率报 1 <a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/eurusd\">欧元</a>兑 1.1355 美元。-0.0264% </li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/gbpusd\">英镑</a>兑美元 (GBP/USD) 汇率报 1 <a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/gbpusd\">英镑</a>兑 1.3162 美元。-0.0380% </li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/audusd\">澳币</a>兑美元 (AUD/USD) 汇率报 1 <a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/audusd\">澳币</a>兑 0.6898 美元。-0.0290%</li>\n<li> 美元兑<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/cadusd\">加币</a> (USD/CAD) 汇率报 1 美元兑 1.4227 <a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/cadusd\">加币</a>。-0.0351%</li>\n<li> 美元兑<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/jpyusd\">日元</a> (USD/JPY) 汇率报 1 美元兑 161.7100 <a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/jpyusd\">日元</a>。-0.0556%</li>\n</ul>\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-10063.html\" title=\"Fed穆萨林挺升息！不应为AI生产力容忍高通膨\">Fed穆萨林挺升息！不应为AI生产力容忍高通膨</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-8702.html\" title=\"封锁中国AI不是解方！Meta祖克柏：美国过度监管恐削弱竞争力 \">封锁中国AI不是解方！Meta祖克柏：美国过度监管恐削弱竞争力 </a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-4621.html\" title=\"航空股迎暑假旺季强势起飞低油价、旅游热成双引擎\">航空股迎暑假旺季强势起飞低油价、旅游热成双引擎</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-3640.html\" 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