内资轧空外资光复台股！

EPFR统计至10/14当周，美国股票型基金净流入近391亿美元居冠，今年净流入已逾3,450亿美元，大部分都是买AI，但「VIX恐慌指数」10/16大涨22%，美股最强的费半指数10/7~10/16竟然连八跌，近日才初步止跌筑底，道琼指数及标普表现比科技股好，现在传出中俄美三国峰会，11月俄乌可能停战，美股酝酿反攻！台股在光复节前的10/21台指期结算，股汇市同步反转了。

内资轧空外资光复台股！

美银证券对亚洲基金经理人的10月调查显示，45%认为明年将出现AI泡沫，42%不认为。但这份问券结论：「外资都最看好台股，净加码台湾比率达50%，领先日韩；逾三成受访者认为，在AI下一阶段热潮，台股最受惠」。但外资已连卖台股三年，前二年大卖6982亿、5995亿，今年逾2.11 兆，「史上六大单日外资卖超」都在今年发生，外资疯狂在亚洲提款，中央银行10/19罕见盘中喊话打强心针，10/21汇价贬到32.666，周线迈向连四黑，不过，反转升到32.39，股汇都物极必反，台股也大涨594点，一度重返「4万7」。

10月内资做多，融资10/12创新高6533亿，指数最大回档7.4%，融资只减少2.3%，信心太强了，10月正如3月、7月外资也大卖，但之后，台股很快V转再创高，估计光复节后只要外资回补，就将挑战5万点了！10/21只见外资由大卖转为小买9.6亿，台指期空单已由10/16连续回补四天，一共1.1万口。

7/16台积电法说会确定「加码投资美国1000亿美元」，次日外资就大卖1890亿台股创纪录；10/15法说会证实要在德州建第二园区，当天就创史上纪录狂卖3026亿台股。今年出口大旺，前三季出超1605亿美元，但是外汇存底9月6007亿美元，和去年10月6002亿美元差不多，一年没增加，钱都在海外，主要都在投资美国了！

台股今年涨幅到10/21达61.9%，大于费半的59.3%，也大于韩股的36%！9月底投信各类型基金规模增加3,040亿，到16.74兆元，今年到10/21大买8949亿，台股靠内资力捧，尤其是大买护国神山台积电，若只算外资今年大卖95.5万张，金额逾2兆，只略小于外资卖出上市股的金额。按照张锡的看法，认为外资持有台股增加20多兆，卖出比例并不算高，但筹码大增也影响台股推升速度。

今年台股上市柜公司获利大进补，上半年大赚3.6兆，创下历年同期新高，全年估赚7.5兆以上，挑战8兆，前三季大赚逾一个股本的公司挑战180家，年增近六成。上半年赚超过十个股本：群联187.4元、宜鼎166.4元、川湖110.9元，但近日许多千金股大跌，川湖一度跌破万元，到10/21共49档千金股仍是多头的主角。

ASIC股王创意自10/6天价8750元拉回7005元煞车，10/21一度涨回8490元，营收连四个月创新高，EPS 54元，但是「富二代」创意及今天涨停板的精材，都胜过富爸爸台积电，没有那么多外资卖压，才可能P/E拉到最高160倍；长线上看万元。世芯-KY受惠3奈米AI加速器放量，9月营收99.79亿，年增496％，已连三个月创新高，AWS的T3晶片大出货，今年EPS 130元，股价居然不到创意的一半，也太低估了，投信10/2~10/21连买13天逾2653张，全力吃货。

大摩9月中「降评」大立光，相隔仅短短一个月又光速改口「升评」，喊目标价 9,040元，仅次于高盛证券喊的11,000元。玉晶光(3406)引进3M，以每股869.6元参与私募48.1亿，持股4.68%，也拚光通讯，今年EPS 36.1元，明年40元起跳，10/16创1220元天价，今天10/21又涨停。联一光今年EPS 2.5元，跟炒热门题材，10/21先创293.5元天价，但暴大量杀到跌停，也反应了投机风险。

9月外销订单创新高，Supermicro又大幅上修营收与毛利率，散热的健策(3653)以及PCB、CPO光通讯相关族群，都是后续值得关注的重点。台股今涨 594点，跌深的韩股也大涨3.29%，今天结算外资回补3676口空单，仍高达8.6万口空单，投信又大买129.2亿轧空外资。

10/15最高峰的外资台指期空单9.7万口，如今回补四天1.1万口，但光复节连续假期前，买盘较观望，台风有可能周五影响，下周才更有利「光复台股」。万宝34周年庆，破天荒把268元零售价的万宝周刊，在10/22~10/26特惠价25元，欢迎在万传媒商城订阅。

万传媒商城: https://estock.com.tw/mall

万宝晚报: https://estock.com.tw/mall/info?id=919

朱成志华山论剑YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@marbotv111

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