应材大涨10%，创新高！提前卡位7月中利多？

6 月分台股大盘历经多次的激烈涨跌幅，投资朋友心情必然上下起伏，但在市场人气与杠杆、当冲交易热络下，后续台股依然容易频繁地出现上下震荡，而投资朋友该如何面对这样的市场呢？降低杠杆操作，及掌握长期产业与个股基本面，才能不被市场震荡所洗盘。

台积电昨日 (6/29) 宣布将于 2026 年 7 月 16 日下午 2 点，召开第二季法人说明会。台积电作为 AI 产业最大受惠股，必然是投资朋友一定要追踪的重点，这边先为投资朋友整理几个关注重点：

更多的投资策略与选股资讯都在－
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一：第二季财报与毛利率表现及预期
第二季毛利率预估 65.5% 至 67.5%，但由于近期市场再度传出 7 奈米以下制成调涨价格，第三季毛利率是否有机会挑战 70%？

二：第三季财测与全年预估目标
原先预估全年美元营收成长为 30% 以上，由于持续扩产与涨价，市场关注是否会调涨全年目标？

三：全年资本支出是否向上调整
第一季法说会时维持 2026 年的资本支出 520 亿至 560 亿美元区间不变，但预估接近高标，第二季是否调升？目前市场积极看好明后年台积电资本支出规划。

四：先进制程扩产与进度
2 奈米成功量产后，产能持续提升，市场预估 2028 年月产能可望突破 20 万片；1.6 奈米预计下半年开始量产；1.4 奈米预计 2027 年启动风险性试产，等以上是否如市场预期？

五：先进封装扩产与技术进度
市场预估随着 3 奈米及以下制程的扩产，先进封装 CoWoS 产能需求也将倍增，台积电相关扩产计划？CoWoS 下一代 CoPoS 先进封装技术进展？CPO 良率问题？

受惠于先进制程的领先地位与 AI 产业大爆发需求，台积电的高成长趋势没有问题，本次法说会预估依然会有好消息，因此，台积电最先进制程 / 封装等相关供应链，绝对是投资朋友值得关注的重点。

台积电先进制程 / 封装相关供应链：

先进封装：日月光 (3711-TW)、京元电 (2449-TW)、颖崴 (6515-TW)、旺矽 (6223-TW)、弘塑 (3131-TW)、志圣 (2467-TW)、辛耘 (3583-TW)、欣兴 (3037-TW)

玻璃基板概念股：群创 (3481-TW)、友达 (2049-TW)、联电 (2303-TW)、富乔 (1815-TW)、台玻 (1802-TW)、钛升 (8027-TW)

2 奈米及以下：新应材 (4749-TW)、崇越 (5434-TW)、闳康 (3587-TW)、亚翔 (6139-TW)、翔名 (8091-TW)、帆宣 (6196-TW)、汉唐 (2404-TW)、光洋科 (1785-TW)

晶背供电：中砂 (1560-TW)、升阳半 (8028-TW)、天虹 (6937-TW)、弘塑 (3131-TW)

个股详细解析：

日月光 (3711-TW)：台积电先进封装与晶圆测试转单。扇出型面板级封装进行全自动化试产线认证，预计 2027 年小量生产。

旺矽 (6223-TW)：台积电 2 奈米（GAA 架构）晶圆测试最核心的耗材供应角色。

万润 (6187-TW)：点胶机与自动化散热贴合设备供应商，先进封装营收比重高。

崇越 (5434-TW)：2 奈米高阶半导体材料（如光阻剂、矽晶圆、光罩基板）。

闳康 (3587-TW)：半导体检测龙头，提供材料分析、故障分析（FA）与可靠度分析。

翔名 (8091-TW)：热喷涂与精密洗净等关键表面处理技术，成为应材、ASML 等国际设备大厂与晶圆代工龙头的关键耗材供应。

亚翔 (6139-TW)：在手订单水位超越 2,000 亿元。台积电、美光、世界先进厂务工程。

中砂 (1560-TW)：钻石碟大厂，在先进制程晶圆研磨耗材市占率高，为薄化制程核心供应商。

升阳半 (8028-TW)：再生晶圆代工与晶圆薄化，其承载晶圆（carrier wafer）技术在晶背供电制程中扮演关键角色。

天虹 (6937-TW)：提供原子层沉积（ALD）及物理气相沉积（PVD）机台，此为实现晶背供电导线布建的重要环节。

市场上下震荡大，是危机也是转机，杠杆操作的风险较高，而掌握产业趋势的投资人，则可利用拉回时，低接绩优股。台积电与台积电供应链绝对是长线的主流股之一，应用材料 (AMAT-US) 昨日大涨 10.82%，并且再创历史新高，受惠的就是台积电与记忆体厂的大扩产，整体先进制程 / 封装的重要供应链，都在大周期循环中，可作为投资朋友长线布局的方向。当然不只有半导体供应链，还有哪些值得留意？想要掌握下波段强势股，欢迎加入 Line @

更多产业趋势预告 + 盘中讯息→
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文章来源：摩尔投顾－叶俊敏分析师

本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险

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"dataConfig": null, "level": 1 }, "article": { "id": 4467, "cid": 27, "subCid": null, "title": "应材大涨10%，创新高！提前卡位7月中利多？", "shortTitle": "应材大涨10%，创新高！提前卡位7月中利多？", "tagId": "", "attr": "", "articleView": null, "source": null, "author": "网络", "description": "6 月分台股大盘历经多次的激烈涨跌幅，投资朋友心情必然上下起伏，但在市场人气与杠杆、当冲交易热络下，后续台股依然容易频繁地出现上下震荡，而投资朋友该如何面对这样的市场呢？降低杠杆操作，及掌握长期产业与个股基本面，才能不被市场震荡所洗盘。台积电昨日 (6/29) 宣布将于 2026 年 7 月 16 日下午 2 点，召开第二季法人说明会。台积电作为 AI 产业最大受惠股，必然是投资朋友一定要追踪的重点，这边先为投资朋友整理几个关注重点：更多的投资策略与选股资讯都在－ LINE@ https:/", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6517356/l/5d1192c041b42f0212b168f3b3886aa7.jpg", "content": "6 月分台股大盘历经多次的激烈涨跌幅，投资朋友心情必然上下起伏，但在市场人气与杠杆、当冲交易热络下，后续台股依然容易频繁地出现上下震荡，而投资朋友该如何面对这样的市场呢？降低杠杆操作，及掌握长期产业与个股基本面，才能不被市场震荡所洗盘。\n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6517356/l/5d1192c041b42f0212b168f3b3886aa7.jpg\" alt=\"应材大涨10%，创新高！提前卡位7月中利多？\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n台积电昨日 (6/29) 宣布将于 2026 年 7 月 16 日下午 2 点，召开第二季法人说明会。台积电作为 AI 产业最大受惠股，必然是投资朋友一定要追踪的重点，这边先为投资朋友整理几个关注重点：\n\n更多的投资策略与选股资讯都在－ \nLINE@ <a href=\"https://user225916.pse.is/money668\">https://user225916.pse.is/money668</a> \n频道连结 <a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/@money66868\">https://www.youtube.com/@money66868</a>\n\n一：第二季财报与毛利率表现及预期 \n第二季毛利率预估 65.5% 至 67.5%，但由于近期市场再度传出 7 奈米以下制成调涨价格，第三季毛利率是否有机会挑战 70%？\n\n二：第三季财测与全年预估目标 \n原先预估全年美元营收成长为 30% 以上，由于持续扩产与涨价，市场关注是否会调涨全年目标？\n\n三：全年资本支出是否向上调整 \n第一季法说会时维持 2026 年的资本支出 520 亿至 560 亿美元区间不变，但预估接近高标，第二季是否调升？目前市场积极看好明后年台积电资本支出规划。\n\n四：先进制程扩产与进度 \n2 奈米成功量产后，产能持续提升，市场预估 2028 年月产能可望突破 20 万片；1.6 奈米预计下半年开始量产；1.4 奈米预计 2027 年启动风险性试产，等以上是否如市场预期？\n\n五：先进封装扩产与技术进度 \n市场预估随着 3 奈米及以下制程的扩产，先进封装 CoWoS 产能需求也将倍增，台积电相关扩产计划？CoWoS 下一代 CoPoS 先进封装技术进展？CPO 良率问题？\n\n受惠于先进制程的领先地位与 AI 产业大爆发需求，台积电的高成长趋势没有问题，本次法说会预估依然会有好消息，因此，台积电最先进制程 / 封装等相关供应链，绝对是投资朋友值得关注的重点。\n\n台积电先进制程 / 封装相关供应链：\n\n先进封装：日月光 (3711-TW)、京元电 (2449-TW)、颖崴 (6515-TW)、旺矽 (6223-TW)、弘塑 (3131-TW)、志圣 (2467-TW)、辛耘 (3583-TW)、欣兴 (3037-TW)\n\n玻璃基板概念股：群创 (3481-TW)、友达 (2049-TW)、联电 (2303-TW)、富乔 (1815-TW)、台玻 (1802-TW)、钛升 (8027-TW)\n\n2 奈米及以下：新应材 (4749-TW)、崇越 (5434-TW)、闳康 (3587-TW)、亚翔 (6139-TW)、翔名 (8091-TW)、帆宣 (6196-TW)、汉唐 (2404-TW)、光洋科 (1785-TW)\n\n晶背供电：中砂 (1560-TW)、升阳半 (8028-TW)、天虹 (6937-TW)、弘塑 (3131-TW)\n\n个股详细解析：\n\n日月光 (3711-TW)：台积电先进封装与晶圆测试转单。扇出型面板级封装进行全自动化试产线认证，预计 2027 年小量生产。\n\n旺矽 (6223-TW)：台积电 2 奈米（GAA 架构）晶圆测试最核心的耗材供应角色。\n\n万润 (6187-TW)：点胶机与自动化散热贴合设备供应商，先进封装营收比重高。\n\n崇越 (5434-TW)：2 奈米高阶半导体材料（如光阻剂、矽晶圆、光罩基板）。\n\n闳康 (3587-TW)：半导体检测龙头，提供材料分析、故障分析（FA）与可靠度分析。\n\n翔名 (8091-TW)：热喷涂与精密洗净等关键表面处理技术，成为应材、ASML 等国际设备大厂与晶圆代工龙头的关键耗材供应。\n\n亚翔 (6139-TW)：在手订单水位超越 2,000 亿元。台积电、美光、世界先进厂务工程。\n\n中砂 (1560-TW)：钻石碟大厂，在先进制程晶圆研磨耗材市占率高，为薄化制程核心供应商。\n\n升阳半 (8028-TW)：再生晶圆代工与晶圆薄化，其承载晶圆（carrier wafer）技术在晶背供电制程中扮演关键角色。\n\n天虹 (6937-TW)：提供原子层沉积（ALD）及物理气相沉积（PVD）机台，此为实现晶背供电导线布建的重要环节。\n\n市场上下震荡大，是危机也是转机，杠杆操作的风险较高，而掌握产业趋势的投资人，则可利用拉回时，低接绩优股。台积电与台积电供应链绝对是长线的主流股之一，应用材料 (AMAT-US) 昨日大涨 10.82%，并且再创历史新高，受惠的就是台积电与记忆体厂的大扩产，整体先进制程 / 封装的重要供应链，都在大周期循环中，可作为投资朋友长线布局的方向。当然不只有半导体供应链，还有哪些值得留意？想要掌握下波段强势股，欢迎加入 Line @\n\n更多产业趋势预告 + 盘中讯息→ \n都在叶老师的 Line @： \nLINE@ID：@money668 (@要记得加)\n\n<a href=\"https://user225916.pse.is/money668\">https://user225916.pse.is/money668</a>\n\n叶老师每日分析解盘节目及每周一晚上 58 台非凡新闻台「前线百分百」→ 最权威、最专业的节目内容，实在太重要 + 太精彩 + 太专业了！ \n频道连结：<a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/@money66868\">https://www.youtube.com/@money66868</a> \n务必锁定专业制作的优质节目，一定要看到最后！ \n并且【订阅 + 按赞 + 分享帮助好友】\n\n文章来源：摩尔投顾－叶俊敏分析师\n\n本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-16797.html\" title=\"升息不确定性消除！19档ETF创今年新高 4档高股息连袂攻顶\">升息不确定性消除！19档ETF创今年新高 4档高股息连袂攻顶</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-5324.html\" title=\"〈台股盘前〉大盘重挫224点失守46,600 资金急转功率半导体 CCL、被动元件同步跌停\">〈台股盘前〉大盘重挫224点失守46,600 资金急转功率半导体 CCL、被动元件同步跌停</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-327.html\" title=\"盘中速报 - 柜买市场加权指数下跌-12.27点至397.36点，跌幅3%\">盘中速报 - 柜买市场加权指数下跌-12.27点至397.36点，跌幅3%</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-9336.html\" 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