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日元重启升势冲破153关卡!日银升息预期再起 华尔街对后市续强立场分歧

2026-09-09 17:48:10 网络 阅读(1)

在市场对日本银行(BOJ, 央行)加速升息的预期心理下,日元近日重启升势,一度升破153关卡,但这波涨势能否延续下去,华尔街分析师看法依然分歧。

日元重启升势冲破153关卡!日银升息预期再起 华尔街对后市续强立场分歧

日元本月以来已上涨4%,成为市场焦点,也撼动了热门的套利交易(carry trade)。在套利交易中,投资人以低廉成本借入日元,转而投资收益率更高的其他货币及资产。

日元兑美元周三(9日)攀升至153.33日元,逼近周二触及的七个月高点152.89日元。日元兑欧元、英镑,以及墨西哥披索、土耳其里拉等热门的套利交易标的也都呈现升值。

推动这波走势的因素,包括市场预期日银将加快紧缩脚步、日本投资人可能将海外资金汇回国内,以及华府要求日元升值的压力。

交易员普遍预期日银将在9月17-18日的会议上升息1码(25个基点),但日元能否延续涨势,将取决于总裁植田和男后续是否展现鹰派态度。不过,最大的不确定因素仍将是美国联准会(Fed)。

富国银行(Wells Fargo)策略师Erik Nelson表示,日银可能难以实现超出市场目前预期的更多升息,这将限制日元进一步升值空间。

摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)全球外汇策略共同主管Meera Chandan则认为,日元走强这件事本身,可能降低日银升息的诱因,「日本可能不希望日元比我们目前看到的水准弱太多,也不希望日元大幅走强。」

Chandan说:「因此,当日元接近150的低档区间时,要进一步推升日元的门槛会更高,尤其是在Fed也采取鹰派立场的情况下。」

另一方面,美国银行(BofA)策略师Alex Cohen早在6月就建议做多日元,如今则认为,若日银如预期收紧货币政策,将为日元提供另一项上涨催化剂。

Cohen说:「如果日元维持在目前这些较低水准,日本出口商可能开始汇回海外资金,这可能成为日元新一波上涨的催化剂。」

宏利投信(Manulife Investment Management)多元资产解决方案团队投资长(CIO)Nathan Thoof表示,只要日银决策官员确认进一步紧缩政策仍在考虑之列,日元就会持续获得支撑。

Thoof说:「现在压力转向日银,央行必须证明市场预期有其依据,尤其要看今年底前是否会再升息一次。」

花旗(Citigroup)策略师Osamu Takashima、Daniel Tobon与Brian Levine说,日元走势取决于Fed下周将采取的行动。「目前的动能可能将美元兑日元推向152左右。即便如此,如果Fed升息,要保持在155以下仍将相当困难。」

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