天天财经-提供金融入门知识-投资理财技巧-原油近月价差扩大！供应紧张警讯升高布兰特油价上看125美元

由于原油供应吃紧，世界各地买家如今若想立即取得一桶原油，必须支付更高价格，而非锁定未来几周或几个月交货的较低价格，这是能源市场可能难以跟上需求的警讯。

原油近月价差扩大！供应紧张警讯升高布兰特油价上看125美元

原油「近月价差」扩大　供应紧张疑虑升温

近期美国汽油价格节节高升，目前平均价格为每加仑4.32美元，尽管仍低于2022年6月俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后曾创下的接近每加仑5.02美元纪录，但美国驾驶人也可能需要做好未来几周汽油价格上涨的准备。

原油价格上涨通常需要一段时间才会反映在零售汽油价格，但从原油市场的「近月价差」(prompt spread)来看，汽油帐单可能进一步增加。

近月价差指立即交割的原油价格，与数周后交割的原油价格之间的差距。今年夏季，由于停火以及美国与伊朗短暂达成外交协议，市场一度燃起冲突最糟情况可能已过的希望，近月价差曾经收窄，但如今两者价差再次扩大。

全球基准原油、11月交割的布兰特原油期货周一(14日)一度升至每桶109.80美元，之后回落至约105.30美元。相比之下，12月交割、可晚一个月交货的原油价格为每桶100.54美元。两者价差约为每桶5.58美元，为7月23日以来最大价差。

西德州中级原油(WTI)10月交割期货、也就是近月合约，周一徘徊在每桶103美元以上，但较11月的合约高出约每桶4.79美元，意味着所谓的近月价差也可能创下近两个月最大水准。

这项价差显示，市场对全球原油供应的疑虑升高，也反映市场对目前能立即取得的实体原油供应感到不安。

先前原油价格之所以能维持在可控制范围，是因为中国在伊朗战争期间大幅放缓石油进口，且具有未公开的国内石油储备。但中东冲突的规模与持续时间，已远远超市场先前预期。

沙国管线遭袭两大海上咽喉恐受控

由于沙乌地阿拉伯与获伊朗支持的叶门胡塞武装分子冲突升级，全球石油供应承受进一步压力，全球与美国两大原油基准价格因此攀抵四个月来最高水准。

沙乌地阿拉伯通往红海的重要东西管线，周一在遭到多起无人机攻击后仍处于关闭状态，与此同时，伊朗代理人攻占红海港口莫卡(Mokha)及一座战略岛屿，使其部队逼近曼德海峡，而这正是沙国原本可让原油绕过荷姆兹海峡的要道。换言之，如今两个关键海上咽喉都处于伊朗与胡塞武装控制之下。

SPI Asset Management管理合伙人Stephen Innes说：「短暂中断是可以应付的，但长时间关闭则是另一回事，因为原油只能回堵一段时间，之后物流限制就会开始影响生产——这就是计算从单纯的不便，开始转变为让原油桶数退出市场的时刻。」

Innes指出，最接近交割的两份布兰特原油期货合约之间的价差扩大，正反映这项疑虑，也显示「买家为现在能取得的原油桶支付越来越高的价格」。

LPL Financial首席技术策略师Adam Turnquist认为，所有迹象都指向油价进一步上涨，目前「几乎完全没有任何与伊朗相关的进展」，包括冲突将持续多久、原油供应何时恢复正常、谁最终可能控制荷姆兹海峡，以及「这将付出什么代价」，都仍缺乏明确答案。

从技术面来看，Turnquist表示，布兰特原油上周突破约每桶100美元的夏季高点，下一个主要阻力位将上看春季高点、也就是超过每桶120美元的水准。

他说：「布兰特原油下一个主要阻力区间将落在每桶112至125美元之间。」

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"articleView": "article.html", "seoTitle": "", "seoKeywords": "", "seoDescription": "", "type": "0", "dataConfig": null, "level": 1 }, "article": { "id": 15963, "cid": 30, "subCid": null, "title": "原油近月价差扩大！供应紧张警讯升高布兰特油价上看125美元", "shortTitle": "原油近月价差扩大！供应紧张警讯升高布兰特油价上看125美元", "tagId": "", "attr": "", "articleView": null, "source": null, "author": "网络", "description": "由于原油供应吃紧，世界各地买家如今若想立即取得一桶原油，必须支付更高价格，而非锁定未来几周或几个月交货的较低价格，这是能源市场可能难以跟上需求的警讯。原油「近月价差」扩大供应紧张疑虑升温近期美国汽油价格节节高升，目前平均价格为每加仑4.32美元，尽管仍低于2022年6月俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后曾创下的接近每加仑5.02美元纪录，但美国驾驶人也可能需要做好未来几周汽油价格上涨的准备。原油价格上涨通常需要一段时间才会反映在零售汽油价格，但从原油市场的「近月价差」(prompt spread)来看，", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6606408/l/2509b0dd28670b1835a43e5dd6d035f5.jpg", "content": "<p>由于原油供应吃紧，世界各地买家如今若想立即取得一桶原油，必须支付更高价格，而非锁定未来几周或几个月交货的较低价格，这是能源市场可能难以跟上需求的警讯。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6606408/l/2509b0dd28670b1835a43e5dd6d035f5.jpg\" alt=\"原油近月价差扩大！供应紧张警讯升高布兰特油价上看125美元\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<h6>原油「近月价差」扩大　供应紧张疑虑升温</h6>\n\n<p>近期美国汽油价格节节高升，目前平均价格为每加仑4.32美元，尽管仍低于2022年6月俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后曾创下的接近每加仑5.02美元纪录，但美国驾驶人也可能需要做好未来几周汽油价格上涨的准备。</p>\n\n<p>原油价格上涨通常需要一段时间才会反映在零售汽油价格，但从原油市场的「近月价差」(prompt spread)来看，汽油帐单可能进一步增加。</p>\n\n<p>近月价差指立即交割的原油价格，与数周后交割的原油价格之间的差距。今年夏季，由于停火以及美国与伊朗短暂达成外交协议，市场一度燃起冲突最糟情况可能已过的希望，近月价差曾经收窄，但如今两者价差再次扩大。</p>\n\n<p>全球基准原油、11月交割的布兰特原油期货周一(14日)一度升至每桶109.80美元，之后回落至约105.30美元。相比之下，12月交割、可晚一个月交货的原油价格为每桶100.54美元。两者价差约为每桶5.58美元，为7月23日以来最大价差。</p>\n\n<p>西德州中级原油(WTI)10月交割期货、也就是近月合约，周一徘徊在每桶103美元以上，但较11月的合约高出约每桶4.79美元，意味着所谓的近月价差也可能创下近两个月最大水准。</p>\n\n<p>这项价差显示，市场对全球原油供应的疑虑升高，也反映市场对目前能立即取得的实体原油供应感到不安。</p>\n\n<p>先前原油价格之所以能维持在可控制范围，是因为中国在伊朗战争期间大幅放缓石油进口，且具有未公开的国内石油储备。但中东冲突的规模与持续时间，已远远超市场先前预期。</p>\n\n<h6>沙国管线遭袭两大海上咽喉恐受控</h6>\n\n<p>由于沙乌地阿拉伯与获伊朗支持的叶门胡塞武装分子冲突升级，全球石油供应承受进一步压力，全球与美国两大原油基准价格因此攀抵四个月来最高水准。</p>\n\n<p>沙乌地阿拉伯通往红海的重要东西管线，周一在遭到多起无人机攻击后仍处于关闭状态，与此同时，伊朗代理人攻占红海港口莫卡(Mokha)及一座战略岛屿，使其部队逼近曼德海峡，而这正是沙国原本可让原油绕过荷姆兹海峡的要道。换言之，如今两个关键海上咽喉都处于伊朗与胡塞武装控制之下。</p>\n\n<p>SPI Asset Management管理合伙人Stephen Innes说：「短暂中断是可以应付的，但长时间关闭则是另一回事，因为原油只能回堵一段时间，之后物流限制就会开始影响生产——这就是计算从单纯的不便，开始转变为让原油桶数退出市场的时刻。」</p>\n\n<p>Innes指出，最接近交割的两份布兰特原油期货合约之间的价差扩大，正反映这项疑虑，也显示「买家为现在能取得的原油桶支付越来越高的价格」。</p>\n\n<p>LPL Financial首席技术策略师Adam Turnquist认为，所有迹象都指向油价进一步上涨，目前「几乎完全没有任何与伊朗相关的进展」，包括冲突将持续多久、原油供应何时恢复正常、谁最终可能控制荷姆兹海峡，以及「这将付出什么代价」，都仍缺乏明确答案。</p>\n\n<p>从技术面来看，Turnquist表示，布兰特原油上周突破约每桶100美元的夏季高点，下一个主要阻力位将上看春季高点、也就是超过每桶120美元的水准。</p>\n\n<p>他说：「布兰特原油下一个主要阻力区间将落在每桶112至125美元之间。」</p>\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-15902.html\" title=\"MaiCoin携手莱尔富加密货币支付首度支援超商消费\">MaiCoin携手莱尔富加密货币支付首度支援超商消费</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-15948.html\" title=\"升级后故障照样收钱？苹果「软体不保固」条款遭印度调查\">升级后故障照样收钱？苹果「软体不保固」条款遭印度调查</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-15861.html\" title=\"「金九银十」前哨战！中国八月70城房价出炉：一线城市中古屋连涨半年上海新屋年增3%成亮点　\">「金九银十」前哨战！中国八月70城房价出炉：一线城市中古屋连涨半年上海新屋年增3%成亮点　</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-15925.html\" title=\"拉加德是否提前离职？欧洲央行员工罕见施压要求说清楚\">拉加德是否提前离职？欧洲央行员工罕见施压要求说清楚</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-15901.html\" title=\"游日省荷包！日本食品消费税8%降至1% 但内用不适用\">游日省荷包！日本食品消费税8%降至1% 但内用不适用</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-15900.html\" 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原油「近月价差」扩大 供应紧张疑虑升温

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