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联准会按兵不动致殖利率曲线陡峭化 欧洲央行面临考验

2026-10-29 19:36:58 网络 阅读(1)

全球两大央行最新政策动向引发欧美公债市场震荡。美国联准会(Fed)决定将基准利率维持在 3.75% 至 4.00% 不变,但内部出现分歧且未提供前瞻指引,导致美债殖利率曲线走陡。与此同时,欧洲央行(ECB)即将公布利率决议,法国债券市场危机使 ECB 的政策调控陷入两难。

联准会按兵不动致殖利率曲线陡峭化 欧洲央行面临考验

联准会本次会议有两位理事投下反对票主张升息 25 个基点(1 码)。联准会主席华许(Kevin Warsh)表示,尽管整体金融条件已有所紧缩,但「仍不愿也无法将其称为紧缩」。

市场对此反应不一,德国商业银行(Commerzbank)利率策略师 Erik Liem 分析指出,Fed 会后「债券获得了更好的支撑」。Aptus Capital Advisors 投资组合经理 John Luke Tyner表示:「市场透过更高的利率与紧缩的信用条件,替 Fed 分担了部分工作,特别是在 AI 资本支出的热络领域。」

然而,Thornburg Investment Management 投资组合经理 Ali Hassan 警示,华许拒绝给出前瞻指引「可能适得其反,因为短端公债走扬削弱了市场自行约束的效果。」

麦格理集团(Macquarie Group)经济主管 David Doyle 预测,Fed 未来仍有 50 个基点的升息空间,最可能于 12 月与次年 3 月各升息 25 个基点。

在大西洋彼岸,欧元区 9 月通膨率升至 3.8%,加上布兰特原油价格高企,央行面临通膨压力。然而,法国 10 年期公债殖利率一度攀升至 5.14%,与德国公债利差创下 2011 年欧债危机以来新高,已实质紧缩金融环境。

Carmignac 投资委员会成员 Kevin Thozet 坦言:「欧洲央行面临的问题不再只是通膨,而是通膨加上利差扩大。」

德国商业银行的 Erik Liem 补充称,在法国公债(OAT)最新发展下,ECB「当前升息几乎已不在考虑范围内」。

Generali Investments 资深经济学家 Martin Wolburg 认为,ECB 总裁拉加德(Christine Lagarde)将会「坚决反击」市场关于动用传导保护工具(TPI)护盘的臆测,并保持 12 月升息的可能性。

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三丽鸥称接获联名商品意见,相关内容含与企业理念不符表达。
TBS社长龙宝正峰回应,《VIVANT》为完全虚构作品,无意煽动国家对立或伤害特定国家民众。",
      "pv": 3,
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    {
      "id": 22316,
      "title": "巴西总统大选败选者「人间蒸发」24小时后 抵达美国佛州迈阿密",
      "shortTitle": "巴西总统大选败选者「人间蒸发」24小时后 抵达美国佛州迈阿密",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6640152/l/2770db6a8e891800722e3bb831c77b59.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-10-29T02:59:49.000Z",
      "description": "波索纳洛28日抵达美国佛州迈阿密。
他在社群发文称未逃离巴西,将在美国领导反对派。
川普证实已批准波索纳洛一家移居美国。",
      "pv": 3,
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      "name": "实时",
      "path": "/hour"
    },
    {
      "id": 22317,
      "title": "市场快讯》联准会升息近尾声,股市投资机会来了吗?",
      "shortTitle": "市场快讯》联准会升息近尾声,股市投资机会来了吗?",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6640377/l/b91f2cbd25dae955f61affa77ca7e060.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-10-29T02:57:49.000Z",
      "description": "联准会按兵不动,政策利率维持3.75%至4.00%,华许称美国经济仍强劲。
9月CPI年增率升至3.7%,能源价格年增率大增4.3个百分点;9月非农仅增2.9万人,失业率4.2%。
巨亨买基金认为升息循环近尾声,若美国经济软着陆,将有利美股中长期表现。",
      "pv": 3,
      "pinyin": "hour",
      "name": "实时",
      "path": "/hour"
    },
    {
      "id": 22325,
      "title": "陆国产GPU实测硬撼辉达H200!天数智芯天垓300跨过「高质量算力」门槛",
      "shortTitle": "陆国产GPU实测硬撼辉达H200!天数智芯天垓300跨过「高",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6640219/l/dc6bf5968dc6b148cf9b6cf41985f797.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-10-29T03:50:05.000Z",
      "description": "天数智芯首度实机展示天垓300通用GPU,第三方测试称其典型PD分离部署下端到端吞吐达H200的1.05倍
天垓300在64K长上下文、MoE、Agent与多模态等场景表现提升,8卡FP8训练中单卡有效吞吐达H100的1.33倍
天垓300 IXL144超节点可降低每百万有效Token成本约40%",
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      "path": "/hour"
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    {
      "id": 22332,
      "title": "花旗:2027年北上深等核心城市二手房价格或迎拐点",
      "shortTitle": "花旗:2027年北上深等核心城市二手房价格或迎拐点",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6640459/l/ecf6623146dc894c5c300368b43c4445.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-10-29T06:10:04.000Z",
      "description": "花旗估2027年北京、上海、深圳二手房价将现拐点,但全国房价不会全面普涨,市场将转向存量二手房主导。
截至2027年,二手房交易额占比料升至58%,规模达7.7兆元人民币。
新建案市场走弱,2027年新开工、竣工面积料年减20.5%、22%。",
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    {
      "id": 22333,
      "title": "Fed主席重申抗通膨决心!富达料升息还有戏 12月与明年3月各升1码",
      "shortTitle": "Fed主席重申抗通膨决心!富达料升息还有戏 12月与明年3月",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6640444/l/66e7b34aa21b5be3d9e7fefcc5fe0d64.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-10-29T05:56:13.000Z",
      "description": "联准会10月维持政策利率3.75%至4%不变,2官员支持再升1码,决策层对后续升息时机分歧。
华许称暂停升息不代表抗通膨转向,未来端视通膨与经济动能;Fed自2027年秋起增设策略会议、2028年采6加2新制。
富达预估12月及明年3月各升息一码,AI资本支出与经济韧性支撑高通膨,建议维持均衡配置。",
      "pv": 3,
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      "name": "实时",
      "path": "/hour"
    },
    {
      "id": 22334,
      "title": "挂牌满三个月 长鑫科技正式被纳为上证指数第一大权重股",
      "shortTitle": "挂牌满三个月 长鑫科技正式被纳为上证指数第一大权重股",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6640458/l/c1b9f0056d8328cfc18010e582aac2e0.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-10-29T05:40:03.000Z",
      "description": "长鑫科技28日纳入上证综合指数,权重4.67%,跃居第一大权重股,超越农业银行与工商银行
长鑫科技同时纳入上证科创板综合指数,权重15.74%,位居成分股首位
长鑫科技7月27日科创板上市,10月28日收44.36元,单日涨3.16%,近4日累涨逾12%",
      "pv": 3,
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    {
      "id": 22339,
      "title": "Gemini重夺AI榜首 新模型击败Claude与GPT、马斯克也按赞",
      "shortTitle": "Gemini重夺AI榜首 新模型击败Claude与GPT、马",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6640535/l/223ed9a6231743a9c918db49465a6503.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-10-29T07:21:16.000Z",
      "description": "谷歌发布旗舰AI模型Gemini 4 Carbon,Artificial Analysis综合智慧指数以59分超越Claude Opus 5.5与GPT-6 Astra,重返榜首
Carbon尚未全面开放,先供部分网路安全防御人员使用
外部测试Carbon部分专项仍落后,资安与超长上下文测试表现亮眼",
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    {
      "id": 22340,
      "title": "范斯致函伊朗高层盼重启和谈 川普澄清非亲自指示但给予肯定",
      "shortTitle": "范斯致函伊朗高层盼重启和谈 川普澄清非亲自指示但给予肯定",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6640513/l/3f671d46aeca8bd63540018ac85fb550.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-10-29T07:10:12.000Z",
      "description": "范斯致函伊朗官员,试图建立谈判框架、重启和平谈判,避免美军新一轮打击。
川普否认指示此举,但仍放话要和伊朗「达成协议,还是彻底消灭他们」。
美方提醒中东盟友备战期中选举后可能重启空袭;伊朗称持续给予外交机会。",
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      "id": 22354,
      "title": "〈陆股盘后〉Fed按兵不动 三大指数走低",
      "shortTitle": "〈陆股盘后〉Fed按兵不动 三大指数走低",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6639946/l/7999cc072dc94fcbe4753c740fe96528.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-10-29T08:30:06.000Z",
      "description": "中国A股三大指数周四收低,上证跌0.82%。
Fed如预期把维持利率在3.75%~4%,10票赞成、2票反对。
Fed官员未明确暗示12月是否升息。",
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    "title": "联准会按兵不动致殖利率曲线陡峭化 欧洲央行面临考验",
    "shortTitle": "联准会按兵不动致殖利率曲线陡峭化 欧洲央行面临考验",
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    "description": "Fed维持利率3.75%至4.00%不变,2位理事反对升息25基点,且未给前瞻指引
美债殖利率曲线走陡;市场称Fed会后债券获得更好支撑,但短端公债走扬也削弱自我约束
欧元区9月通膨升至3.8%,法国10年债殖利率冲5.14%,ECB陷通膨与利差扩大两难",
    "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6640739/l/1cb74a91512ebf3774a129ba0c77f3cc.jpg",
    "content": "<p>全球两大央行最新政策动向引发欧美公债市场震荡。美国联准会(Fed)决定将基准利率维持在 3.75% 至 4.00% 不变,但内部出现分歧且未提供前瞻指引,导致美债殖利率曲线走陡。与此同时,欧洲央行(ECB)即将公布利率决议,法国债券市场危机使 ECB 的政策调控陷入两难。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6640739/l/1cb74a91512ebf3774a129ba0c77f3cc.jpg\" alt=\"联准会按兵不动致殖利率曲线陡峭化 欧洲央行面临考验\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<p>联准会本次会议有两位理事投下反对票主张升息 25 个基点(1 码)。联准会主席华许(Kevin Warsh)表示,尽管整体金融条件已有所紧缩,但「仍不愿也无法将其称为紧缩」。</p>\n\n<p>市场对此反应不一,德国商业银行(Commerzbank)利率策略师 Erik Liem 分析指出,Fed 会后「债券获得了更好的支撑」。Aptus Capital Advisors 投资组合经理 John Luke Tyner表示:「市场透过更高的利率与紧缩的信用条件,替 Fed 分担了部分工作,特别是在 AI 资本支出的热络领域。」</p>\n\n<p>然而,Thornburg Investment Management 投资组合经理 Ali Hassan 警示,华许拒绝给出前瞻指引「可能适得其反,因为短端公债走扬削弱了市场自行约束的效果。」</p>\n\n<p>麦格理集团(Macquarie Group)经济主管 David Doyle 预测,Fed 未来仍有 50 个基点的升息空间,最可能于 12 月与次年 3 月各升息 25 个基点。</p>\n\n<p>在大西洋彼岸,欧元区 9 月通膨率升至 3.8%,加上布兰特原油价格高企,央行面临通膨压力。然而,法国 10 年期公债殖利率一度攀升至 5.14%,与德国公债利差创下 2011 年欧债危机以来新高,已实质紧缩金融环境。</p>\n\n<p>Carmignac 投资委员会成员 Kevin Thozet 坦言:「欧洲央行面临的问题不再只是通膨,而是通膨加上利差扩大。」</p>\n\n<p>德国商业银行的 Erik Liem 补充称,在法国公债(OAT)最新发展下,ECB「当前升息几乎已不在考虑范围内」。</p>\n\n<p>Generali Investments 资深经济学家 Martin Wolburg 认为,ECB 总裁拉加德(Christine Lagarde)将会「坚决反击」市场关于动用传导保护工具(TPI)护盘的臆测,并保持 12 月升息的可能性。</p>\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n  <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n  <ul>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-22411.html\" title=\"台币贬值助攻汇兑收益 10月海外平衡型基金与美国中小型股逆势抗跌\">台币贬值助攻汇兑收益 10月海外平衡型基金与美国中小型股逆势抗跌</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-22315.html\" title=\"日剧《VIVANT》惹怒中国 Hello Kitty母公司深夜致歉\">日剧《VIVANT》惹怒中国 Hello Kitty母公司深夜致歉</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-22369.html\" title=\"印尼央行积极护盘 印尼盾连跌6日后迎来反弹\">印尼央行积极护盘 印尼盾连跌6日后迎来反弹</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-22339.html\" title=\"Gemini重夺AI榜首 新模型击败Claude与GPT、马斯克也按赞\">Gemini重夺AI榜首 新模型击败Claude与GPT、马斯克也按赞</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-22316.html\" title=\"巴西总统大选败选者「人间蒸发」24小时后 抵达美国佛州迈阿密\">巴西总统大选败选者「人间蒸发」24小时后 抵达美国佛州迈阿密</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-22325.html\" title=\"陆国产GPU实测硬撼辉达H200!天数智芯天垓300跨过「高质量算力」门槛\">陆国产GPU实测硬撼辉达H200!天数智芯天垓300跨过「高质量算力」门槛</a></li>\n  </ul>\n</div>",
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