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〈贵金属盘后〉聚焦美国期中选举 黄金下跌 美债和美元殖利率双升

2026-11-04 07:38:55 网络 阅读(1)

黄金周二(3日)回吐涨幅,美元和美债殖利率双双上扬是主因,同时投资人正在等待美国期中选举结果出炉,以寻找和财政政策有关的线索。

〈贵金属盘后〉聚焦美国期中选举 黄金下跌 美债和美元殖利率双升

  • 黄金现货下滑0.5%,报每盎司3927.18美元,稍早一度跌到3893.31美元。
  • 美国12月黄金期货收低0.7%,报每盎司3940.40美元。

油价跌至三周低点,市场一方面评估俄乌战争与伊朗战争的和平谈判进展,另一方面却也担忧两场冲突近期发生的攻击事件,可能导致供应进一步中断。

先前由于油价下跌缓解通膨升温压力,黄金周一曾反弹。

Blue Line Futures首席市场策略师Phillip Streible表示,美元一直走强,公债殖利率也持续走高,都对金价形成压力。

美元小幅走升,投资人正在评估美伊可能达成协议的不确定性,以及美国期中选举结果,美国公债殖利率也小幅上扬。

不过,市场对升息的预期略为降温,提高了不孳息资产的吸引力,为金价提供支撑。根据芝商所(CME)FedWatch工具,交易员目前预期联准会12月升息的机率为79%。

市场焦点集中在周二举行的美国期中选举。民调与无党派分析人士普遍认为,民主党可能从共和党手中夺回众议院控制权,但参议院由哪一党掌控仍不明朗。

Forex.com市场分析师Fawad Razaqzada说:「如果民主党全面胜出,可能对美元构成压力,因为这将增加政府推动立法的难度,包括与债务上限相关的措施。如果美元走贬,金价就可能因此获得支撑。」

另一方面,世界黄金协会(WGC)下修今年黄金投资需求,预估成长幅度从原先的400吨调降至200吨,但上修对各国央行买盘的预估。

其他贵金属交易
  • 现货白银下滑1.9%,报每盎司49.69美元。
  • 现货白金下跌1.9%,报每盎司1,421.18美元。
  • 现货钯金下挫3.4%,报每盎司935.73美元。

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      "description": "WGC:各国央行第3季净买进黄金321吨,创2024年第4季以来单季最高;今年截至9月底估达675吨。
中国、波兰第3季增持最多,俄罗斯卖出19吨,金价走弱可能促央行加快买金。
WGC下修今年黄金投资需求成长预估至200吨;第3季金饰需求跌17%至313吨。",
      "pv": 1,
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      "id": 23064,
      "title": "〈分析〉表面下调 实则加码:美国财政部6180亿借款估计藏了什么讯号?",
      "shortTitle": "〈分析〉表面下调 实则加码:美国财政部6180亿借款估计藏了",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6645206/l/dc4315edca34e1eb7f67c388f40f3d96.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-11-03T09:20:03.000Z",
      "description": "美国财政部估10至12月举借6180亿美元,表面较8月少100亿;惟排除现金余额后,实际需求反增240亿。
明年1至3月借款预估升至8000亿美元,季底现金余额假设达1兆美元,显示明年初融资压力仍大。
10年期美债殖利率跌逾2个基点至4.906%,市场聚焦11月4日再融资声明与各期限公债发行规模。",
      "pv": 1,
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      "path": "/hour"
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    {
      "id": 23065,
      "title": "〈分析〉下游营业获利暴增234%:伊朗战火下 沙乌地阿美财报怎么解读?",
      "shortTitle": "〈分析〉下游营业获利暴增234%:伊朗战火下 沙乌地阿美财报",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6645200/l/21de9c059574907d8d05efdd846006dc.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-11-03T08:50:03.000Z",
      "description": "阿美第三季净利363亿美元,年增34.5%;调整后净利312亿美元,年增9%,优于预期。
原油实现售价年增35%至每桶95.20美元,下游EBIT达103亿美元,年增234%;液体产量则减少约10%。
出口设施遭攻击,营业现金流387亿美元、自由现金流282亿美元;第四季将支付219亿美元基本股利。",
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    {
      "id": 23083,
      "title": "美推动缅甸和平谈判 以获取稀土资源抗衡中国影响力",
      "shortTitle": "美推动缅甸和平谈判 以获取稀土资源抗衡中国影响力",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6645292/l/55dd94b874f686d680f6931e45a90de5.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-11-03T10:20:04.000Z",
      "description": "美国国务院战略文件称,华府欲透过参与缅甸和平外交谈判,扩大影响力并争取稀土资源。
自2021年军方政变后,美西方制裁反让中国藉基建与关键矿产供应链,深化在缅甸的影响力。
美方盼2030年前促成和平协议、3场多方论坛,并推动打击诈骗中心与三倍扩大对缅出口。",
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      "id": 23096,
      "title": "华尔街忧未来两年华府陷「政治僵局」 加剧科技股卖压",
      "shortTitle": "华尔街忧未来两年华府陷「政治僵局」 加剧科技股卖压",
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      "description": "那斯达克100自高点回档逾10%,跌入技术性修正,市场忧AI巨额资本支出回报与美国期中选举政治不确定性。
The Kobeissi Letter称科技股抛售不只是修正。
Alphabet财报失色拖累Meta、Amazon,英特尔与ServiceNow因财测失利重挫;但多数机构看好选后股市。",
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      "id": 23105,
      "title": "香港第三季GDP年增5.2% 创5年来前三季最快增速",
      "shortTitle": "香港第三季GDP年增5.2% 创5年来前三季最快增速",
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      "description": "香港第三季GDP年增5.2%,优于预期,较第二季4.2%加速,连15季扩张
AI电子产品需求带动商品出口年增30.4%,带动进口、投资与零售同步回升
陈茂波称投资者更乐观,估住宅价今年涨7%至10%,商办租金与出租率改善",
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      "id": 23115,
      "title": "台湾并购案受阻 Grab战略重心回归东南亚主场",
      "shortTitle": "台湾并购案受阻 Grab战略重心回归东南亚主场",
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      "createdAt": "2026-11-03T12:50:03.000Z",
      "description": "Grab收购台湾Foodpanda遭否决,第四季将提列6,000万美元终止补偿金
财务长称台湾不在规划内,重心回到东南亚本土市场与有机成长
第三季营收11.1亿美元、EBITDA 2.37亿美元,三大业务首度同获利,全年指引上调",
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      "id": 23118,
      "title": "美股出现反弹讯号!小摩:标普500市场广度回升、年底上看8000点",
      "shortTitle": "美股出现反弹讯号!小摩:标普500市场广度回升、年底上看80",
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      "createdAt": "2026-11-03T14:10:04.000Z",
      "description": "摩根大通称标普500市场广度改善,20日新高成分股逾50%,为2025年第二季以来首见。
该行将标普500年底目标上调至8,000点,认为中期选举后美股有望走强。
AI资本支出疑虑拖累科技股,纳指10月收跌,AMZN、INTC财报引发卖压。",
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      "id": 23119,
      "title": "美股选后要反弹了?瑞银点出年底行情两大助力",
      "shortTitle": "美股选后要反弹了?瑞银点出年底行情两大助力",
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      "description": "瑞银称美国期中选举落幕后,标普500有望迎年底反弹,11月平均上涨1.9%。
旗下策略主管Montoni指AI疑虑未消,周一那斯达克100跌1.4%,自10月高点回落10%进入修正。
若民主党大胜,金融股与资料中心恐承压;再生能源股可能受惠,瑞银建议买XLF卖权避险。",
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      "id": 23121,
      "title": "Meta为AI建设发债!美元债拟筹150亿美元 首批欧元债最快周三登场",
      "shortTitle": "Meta为AI建设发债!美元债拟筹150亿美元 首批欧元债最",
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      "createdAt": "2026-11-03T15:20:03.000Z",
      "description": "Meta启动跨币别发债,美元债拟筹约150亿美元,最快周三首发欧元债
知情人士称,Meta合计筹资至少200亿美元,规模可能随认购需求调高
大型科技公司密集为AI基础设施筹资,甲骨文、Alphabet、微软近期均发债",
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    "title": "〈贵金属盘后〉聚焦美国期中选举 黄金下跌 美债和美元殖利率双升",
    "shortTitle": "〈贵金属盘后〉聚焦美国期中选举 黄金下跌 美债和美元殖利率双",
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    "description": "美元与美债殖利率走高,黄金周二回吐涨幅,现货跌0.5%至3927.18美元
投资人等待美国期中选举结果,关注民主党是否夺回众院及对财政政策影响
WGC下修今年黄金投资需求至200吨;联准会12月升息机率估79%",
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    "content": "<p>黄金周二(3日)回吐涨幅,美元和美债殖利率双双上扬是主因,同时投资人正在等待美国期中选举结果出炉,以寻找和财政政策有关的线索。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6645103/l/85fa6acdc8b79b96312ab328e0281ff6.jpg\" alt=\"〈贵金属盘后〉聚焦美国期中选举 黄金下跌 美债和美元殖利率双升\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>黄金现货下滑0.5%,报每盎司3927.18美元,稍早一度跌到3893.31美元。</li>\n<li>美国12月黄金期货收低0.7%,报每盎司3940.40美元。</li>\n</ul>\n\n<p>油价跌至三周低点,市场一方面评估俄乌战争与伊朗战争的和平谈判进展,另一方面却也担忧两场冲突近期发生的攻击事件,可能导致供应进一步中断。</p>\n\n<p>先前由于油价下跌缓解通膨升温压力,黄金周一曾反弹。</p>\n\n<p>Blue Line Futures首席市场策略师Phillip Streible表示,美元一直走强,公债殖利率也持续走高,都对金价形成压力。</p>\n\n<p>美元小幅走升,投资人正在评估美伊可能达成协议的不确定性,以及美国期中选举结果,美国公债殖利率也小幅上扬。</p>\n\n<p>不过,市场对升息的预期略为降温,提高了不孳息资产的吸引力,为金价提供支撑。根据芝商所(CME)FedWatch工具,交易员目前预期联准会12月升息的机率为79%。</p>\n\n<p>市场焦点集中在周二举行的美国期中选举。民调与无党派分析人士普遍认为,民主党可能从共和党手中夺回众议院控制权,但参议院由哪一党掌控仍不明朗。</p>\n\n<p>Forex.com市场分析师Fawad Razaqzada说:「如果民主党全面胜出,可能对美元构成压力,因为这将增加政府推动立法的难度,包括与债务上限相关的措施。如果美元走贬,金价就可能因此获得支撑。」</p>\n\n<p>另一方面,世界黄金协会(WGC)下修今年黄金投资需求,预估成长幅度从原先的400吨调降至200吨,但上修对各国央行买盘的预估。</p>\n\n<h6>其他贵金属交易</h6>\n\n<ul>\n<li>现货白银下滑1.9%,报每盎司49.69美元。</li>\n<li>现货白金下跌1.9%,报每盎司1,421.18美元。</li>\n<li>现货钯金下挫3.4%,报每盎司935.73美元。</li>\n</ul><div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n  <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n  <ul>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-23115.html\" title=\"台湾并购案受阻 Grab战略重心回归东南亚主场\">台湾并购案受阻 Grab战略重心回归东南亚主场</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-23138.html\" title=\"半年遇袭商船增逾三倍!俄总统普丁用无人机「摸底线」 北约为何不敢硬碰硬?\">半年遇袭商船增逾三倍!俄总统普丁用无人机「摸底线」 北约为何不敢硬碰硬?</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-23168.html\" title=\"美加贸易战有望降温?卡尼透露谈判进展:美国「要求更少、提供更多」\">美加贸易战有望降温?卡尼透露谈判进展:美国「要求更少、提供更多」</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-23063.html\" title=\"全球央行狂买黄金!Q3买进321吨创2024年底来最高 中国、波兰成最大买家\">全球央行狂买黄金!Q3买进321吨创2024年底来最高 中国、波兰成最大买家</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-23065.html\" title=\"〈分析〉下游营业获利暴增234%:伊朗战火下 沙乌地阿美财报怎么解读?\">〈分析〉下游营业获利暴增234%:伊朗战火下 沙乌地阿美财报怎么解读?</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-23124.html\" title=\"Fed能松口气了?美国9月职缺意外增至752.3万个 创四个月新高\">Fed能松口气了?美国9月职缺意外增至752.3万个 创四个月新高</a></li>\n  </ul>\n</div>",
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